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Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 15/06/2024
Time: 09:00
Final 0-0
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Vs
30%
25%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and a most likely total of three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.2% chance. Kalju Nomme, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. Flora Tallinn, on the road, has managed only 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against comparable opposition. The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 30% for a home victory, 25% for a draw, and 46% for an away triumph. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.1% probability. Both sides have recently endured two straight defeats, with Kalju losing 2-3 to FC Levadia Tallinn and Flora falling 1-2 to Paide. Despite the low scoring form, the data points to a balanced contest where Flora’s defensive solidity could tip the scales. The model’s selection underscores the likelihood of more than one and a half goals, while the overall odds favour a Flora victory.

Results analysis

Kalju Nomme’s run of two straight defeats has finally been broken, yet the match finished 0-0, a draw that stunned the pre-match favourite, Flora Tallinn, who were tipped to win with a 46% probability. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was a stalemate. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, with an 84.1% probability, missed as no goals were scored. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (11.2%) and the expected total of 3.2 goals (most likely 3 at 22%) were also not realised. The game ended in a goalless draw, leaving the pre-match prediction in the wrong hands.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kalju Nomme win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn win✗ Miss
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L21W22D20W42W00D30W20W11D14LH·FC 06/04H·PAI14/04A·FLO21/04A·TAL27/04H·TAM03/05A·FC 12/05H·KUR18/05A·PAI22/05H·NÕM28/05A·TRA02/06
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.172.501.291.441.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.251.421.832.170.670.67
vs Weaker (18)2.391.003.000.621.901.30
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L22D22D30W10W01L31W10W32W20WH·PAI17/04H·KAL21/04A·KUR27/04A·TAL01/05H·FC 05/05H·VAP11/05A·TRA18/05H·KUR21/05A·TAL29/05H·PAI01/06
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.031.561.001.861.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.091.271.251.250.671.33
vs Weaker (19)2.050.891.880.752.181.00
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.1%
Under 1.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.4%
Under 2.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.1%
Under 3.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
1-3
5.5%
0-0 ✓
5.0%
Kalju Nomme goals ↓
Flora Tallinn goals →
01234
05.0%6.2%6.5%3.9%1.7%
14.7%11%9.2%5.5%2.5%
24.0%7.3%6.5%3.9%1.8%
31.9%3.4%3.1%1.9%0.8%
40.7%1.2%1.1%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalju Nomme goals (down), columns = Flora Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.42
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.94
Trans Narva
1.17
Tammeka
1.17
Viimsi
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Kuressaare
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
0.87
Nõmme United
0.42
Kalju Nomme is 0.06 points better than Flora Tallinn in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.28
Kalju Nomme
2.19
Paide
2.06
Flora Tallinn
1.92
Trans Narva
1.33
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
1.28
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Nõmme United
0.61
Viimsi
0.50
Kalju Nomme is 0.28 goals better than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (2.19 vs 1.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.53
Paide
1.08
Flora Tallinn
1.19
Kalju Nomme
1.22
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.58
Trans Narva
1.75
Kuressaare
1.86
Tallinna Kalev
1.97
Nõmme United
2.19
Kalju Nomme is 0.03 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L11D11D10W32W00D20W00D11D12LH·FC 06/04H·PAI14/04A·FLO21/04A·TAL27/04H·TAM03/05A·FC 12/05H·KUR18/05A·PAI22/05H·NÕM28/05A·TRA02/06
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.731.430.930.750.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.670.831.171.330.170.33
vs Weaker (18)1.330.671.620.621.100.70
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D01L20W10W00D00D00D31W20WH·PAI17/04H·KAL21/04A·KUR27/04A·TAL01/05H·FC 05/05H·VAP11/05A·TRA18/05H·KUR21/05A·TAL29/05H·PAI01/06
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.470.750.501.000.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.640.820.750.880.330.67
vs Weaker (19)1.000.260.750.121.180.36
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W11D10W10W00D10W20W00D02LH·FC 06/04H·PAI14/04A·FLO21/04A·TAL27/04H·TAM03/05A·FC 12/05H·KUR18/05A·PAI22/05H·NÕM28/05A·TRA02/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.431.070.360.690.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.580.580.670.830.500.33
vs Weaker (18)1.060.331.380.000.800.60
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D21W10W00D01L31W10W01L00DH·PAI17/04H·KAL21/04A·KUR27/04A·TAL01/05H·FC 05/05H·VAP11/05A·TRA18/05H·KUR21/05A·TAL29/05H·PAI01/06
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.810.500.860.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.450.450.500.380.330.67
vs Weaker (19)1.050.631.120.621.000.64
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kalju Nomme's squad is €1m more valuable than Flora Tallinn's (€4m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
KN wins
4
Draws
3
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn · H/A from KN
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24AFlora Tallinn Vs KN2-2
11/11/23AFlora Tallinn Vs KN0-0
17/09/23HKN Vs Flora Tallinn0-0
07/05/23AFlora Tallinn Vs KN3-1
19/04/23HKN Vs Flora Tallinn2-2
16/10/22HKN Vs Flora Tallinn1-0
31/08/22AFlora Tallinn Vs KN2-0
19/06/22AFlora Tallinn Vs KN2-0

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/06/24ATrans Narva Vs KN4-1
28/05/24HKN Vs Nõmme United1-1
22/05/24APaide Vs KN0-2
18/05/24HKN Vs Kuressaare3-0
12/05/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KN0-0
03/05/24HKN Vs Tammeka4-2
27/04/24ATallinna Kalev Vs KN0-2
21/04/24AFlora Tallinn Vs KN2-2
14/04/24HKN Vs Paide2-1
06/04/24HKN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-5

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/24HFT Vs Paide2-0
29/05/24ATallinna Kalev Vs FT2-3
21/05/24HFT Vs Kuressaare1-0
18/05/24ATrans Narva Vs FT1-3
11/05/24HFT Vs Vaprus0-1
05/05/24HFT Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-0
01/05/24ATallinna Kalev Vs FT0-3
27/04/24AKuressaare Vs FT2-2
21/04/24HFT Vs Kalju Nomme2-2
17/04/24HFT Vs Paide1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDL1.54
HomeLWWWD1.79
AwayDWDWL1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%31%
AVG goals2.743.172.35
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %48%58%38%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.581.961.23
Conceded1.161.211.12
BTTS52%62%42%
Clean Sheet38%33%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.88
HomeDWLWW1.80
AwayWDWWW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%52%56%
AVG goals2.682.682.68
Over 1.5 %72%76%68%
Over 2.5 %58%52%64%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.681.601.76
Conceded1.001.080.92
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet44%48%40%
Corners12.7512.0013.50
Cards2.672.003.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3687
75%
2.4
8219+63
2.8
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.30.5
-
2Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3672
58%
2.0
7944+35
3.4
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.21.2
-
3PaidePaide3672
64%
2.0
7439+35
3.1
81%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.11.1
-
4Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3670
58%
1.9
6943+26
3.1
78%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
5TammekaTammeka3642
31%
1.2
4754-7
2.8
81%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.5
-
6Trans NarvaTrans Narva3642
28%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
58%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.8
-
7VaprusVaprus3635
25%
1.0
3557-22
2.6
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.6
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3634
22%
0.9
4667-21
3.1
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.9
-
9Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3833
21%
0.9
3875-37
3.0
84%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3615
6%
0.4
2279-57
2.8
86%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.62.2
-
11ViimsiViimsi22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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