The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an average of 3.3 goals, favouring a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11%. Kalju Nomme, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, has been scoring 1.71 goals per game while conceding 1.29. Flora Tallinn, on the road, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s pick is a home win, with probabilities of 39% for Kalju Nomme, 25% for a draw, and 36% for Flora Tallinn. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98%), Under 6.5 (94.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.8%), Under 5.5 (88.2%), Over 1.5 (85.3%), Home +2 handicap (81.7%), and Home over 0.5 goals (81.6%). Kalju Nomme’s recent form shows a recovery after two straight defeats, while Flora Tallinn also came off two consecutive losses. The numbers point to a tightly contested match with a strong chance of both teams finding the net.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kalju Nomme win
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.97
2.13
1.20
2.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.75
1.08
1.57
1.29
4.40
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.89
2.62
1.12
1.40
0.70
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
1.17
2.88
1.18
2.23
1.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.73
1.73
3.60
2.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
2.53
0.84
2.58
0.83
2.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.4%
Under 2.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.5%
1-0
5.3%
3-1
5.1%
0-1
4.7%
Kalju Nomme goals ↓
Flora Tallinn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.7%
4.5%
2.3%
0.9%
1
5.3%
11%
7.8%
4.1%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.7%
6.8%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.2%
5.1%
4.0%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.4%
2.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalju Nomme goals (down), columns = Flora Tallinn goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Kalju Nomme is 0.08 points better than Flora Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Kalju Nomme is 0.22 goals better than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Kalju Nomme is 0.56 goals better than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kalju Nomme or Draw
66.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
25%
34%
covers Kalju Nomme + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme or Flora Tallinn
75.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
25%
34%
covers Kalju Nomme + Flora Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flora Tallinn
58.7%
Avg Implied -
41%
25%
34%
covers Draw + Flora Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5
Over
82.6%
Under
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5
Over
52.1%
Under
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5
Over
25.5%
Under
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 3.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
79.2%
Under
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kalju Nomme, so a minus line means Kalju Nomme give that many goals of a start and Flora Tallinn receive them. At -1, Kalju Nomme must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kalju Nomme win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme -2
9.5%
Draw -2
12.7%
Flora Tallinn +2
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme -1
22.2%
Draw -1
19.0%
Flora Tallinn +1
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme +1
66.1%
Draw +1
17.0%
Flora Tallinn -1
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme +2
83.1%
Draw +2
10.3%
Flora Tallinn -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.50
0.71
0.43
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.25
0.25
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.53
1.24
0.53
1.08
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.64
1.60
0.40
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
0.47
1.08
0.58
1.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.58
0.86
0.86
2.20
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
1.38
0.88
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.63
1.65
0.65
1.15
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.09
2.00
1.60
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.37
1.50
0.25
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Kalju Nomme's squad is €1m more valuable than Flora Tallinn's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Kalju Nomme and Flora Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Tammeka
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United