Kalju Nomme’s recent form, after two straight defeats, has sharpened their resolve at home, and the model sees them as the clear favourite to win. Their average of 2.62 goals scored and only 1.12 conceded against weaker opposition underscores a potent attack, while Laagri’s away record shows just 0.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded to stronger teams, hinting at a defensive struggle. The model assigns a 68% chance to a home win, 18% to a draw, and 14% to an away victory, with the most likely outcome a 2-1 win for Kalju Nomme. The expected total of 3.7 goals aligns with a 3-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-1, carrying a 9.3% probability. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4%, Under 7.5 at 96.7%, Home +2 handicap at 94.8%, Home over 0.5 goals at 92.2%, Under 6.5 at 92.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 89.9%, Over 1.5 at 88.7%, and Home or Draw at 86.2%. These selections reflect the model’s confidence in a high-scoring, home-dominated affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kalju Nomme win
65.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win
15.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.97
2.13
1.20
2.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.75
1.08
1.57
1.29
4.40
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.89
2.62
1.12
1.40
0.70
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.77
1.47
3.67
1.22
1.42
1.83
vs Stronger (13)
1.54
1.85
2.11
1.67
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (16)
2.31
1.25
2.62
0.88
2.00
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
26.00
0.00
26.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.0%
Under 2.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.8%
Under 3.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.3%
No
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.4%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.7%
3-0
6.7%
1-0
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
4-1
4.8%
Kalju Nomme goals ↓
Laagri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
2.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
1
5.9%
8.4%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
2
8.2%
9.4%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.7%
7.7%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
4
4.1%
4.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalju Nomme goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Kalju Nomme is 0.25 points better than Laagri in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Kalju Nomme is 0.12 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Kalju Nomme is 0.38 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kalju Nomme or Draw
84.7%
Avg Implied -
65%
19%
15%
covers Kalju Nomme + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme or Laagri
80.7%
Avg Implied -
65%
19%
15%
covers Kalju Nomme + Laagri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Laagri
34.6%
Avg Implied -
65%
19%
15%
covers Draw + Laagri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5
Over
91.5%
Under
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 3.5
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kalju Nomme, so a minus line means Kalju Nomme give that many goals of a start and Laagri receive them. At -1, Kalju Nomme must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kalju Nomme win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme -2
25.2%
Draw -2
19.2%
Laagri +2
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme -1
44.5%
Draw -1
20.9%
Laagri +1
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme +1
84.7%
Draw +1
9.4%
Laagri -1
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme +2
94.1%
Draw +2
4.2%
Laagri -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.50
0.71
0.43
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.25
0.25
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.73
1.83
0.50
0.75
1.08
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.92
1.22
0.78
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.62
1.25
0.25
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
12.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.58
0.86
0.86
2.20
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
1.38
0.88
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.83
0.72
0.67
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.89
0.89
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.62
1.38
0.62
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
14.00
0.00
14.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Kalju Nomme's squad is €2m more valuable than Laagri's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Kalju Nomme and Laagri have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Kalju Nomme's defence is €1m more valuable than Laagri's (€2m vs €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →