Kalju Nomme are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 73% chance of a home win and a 15% chance of a draw, leaving only 12% for Nõmme United to triumph. The model’s pick is a home victory, reflecting Kalju’s strong home form - averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against similarly ranked opponents - versus Nõmme’s away form, which shows 3.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The expected total goals hover at 4.4, with the most likely total being 6 + goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 3-1 for Kalju, carrying an 8% probability. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 99.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.8%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.5%, Home over 0.5 goals at 95.4%, Home +2 handicap at 95.1%, Over 1.5 at 93.7% with a 10% edge, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 92.8%. Kalju’s recent form, after three straight defeats, and Nõmme’s fresh win against Vaprus, add context but do not alter the clear home advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kalju Nomme win
72.6%
Avg Implied 61.1% · @ 1.50
Edge
+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.53
1xBet
1.47
Draw
15.1%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.45
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.60
Unibet
4.30
Nõmme United win
12.3%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.02
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.29
Unibet
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.97
2.13
1.20
2.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.75
1.08
1.57
1.29
4.40
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.89
2.62
1.12
1.40
0.70
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.03
1.33
3.60
1.13
2.47
1.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
2.95
1.32
2.92
1.42
3.00
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
7.00
0.33
9.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
93.7%
@ 1.08+9.5%
Under 1.5
6.3%
@ 5.75-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.08
Under
Unibet
5.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
81.1%
@ 1.38+15.0%
Under 2.5
18.9%
@ 2.70-15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.38
Under
Unibet
2.70
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
63.5%
@ 2.02+18.3%
Under 3.5
36.5%
@ 1.67-18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.02
Under
Unibet
1.67
Both teams to score
Yes
69.6%
@ 1.47+7.6%
No
30.4%
@ 2.40-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.47
No
Unibet
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.0%@ 8.00+2.0%
2-1
7.8%@ 6.50+0.4%
3-0
6.2%@ 8.50+0.6%
4-1
6.1%@ 11.00+1.8%
2-0
6.0%@ 7.50-0.3%
1-1
5.6%@ 6.75-1.5%
3-2
5.1%@ 10.00+0.4%
2-2
5.0%@ 8.50-0.6%
Kalju Nomme goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.8%
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
1
3.4%
5.6%
3.3%
1.4%
0.5%
2
6.0%
7.8%
5.0%
2.2%
0.7%
3
6.2%
8.0%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
4
4.8%
6.1%
4.0%
1.7%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalju Nomme goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Kalju Nomme is 1.00 points better than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Kalju Nomme is 0.88 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Kalju Nomme is 1.50 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kalju Nomme or Draw
87.7%
Avg Implied 80.5% · @ 1.14
Edge
+7.3%
73%
15%
12%
covers Kalju Nomme + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.14
Kalju Nomme or Nõmme United
84.9%
Avg Implied 78.4% · @ 1.17
Edge
+6.5%
73%
15%
12%
covers Kalju Nomme + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.17
Draw or Nõmme United
27.4%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.23
Edge
-13.7%
73%
15%
12%
covers Draw + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.23
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5
Over
95.4%
Under
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5
Over
81.3%
@ 1.38+16.4%
Under
18.7%
@ 2.55-16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.38
Under
Unibet
2.55
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5
Over
59.4%
@ 2.25+19.6%
Under
40.6%
@ 1.49-19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.49
Kalju Nomme over/under 3.5
Over
37.1%
@ 4.30+16.1%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.14-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.30
Under
Unibet
1.14
Nõmme United over/under 0.5
Over
72.5%
@ 1.32+4.1%
Under
27.5%
@ 2.85-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.32
Under
Unibet
2.85
Nõmme United over/under 1.5
Over
37.0%
@ 2.63+2.7%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.37-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.63
Under
Unibet
1.37
Nõmme United over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kalju Nomme, so a minus line means Kalju Nomme give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United receive them. At -1, Kalju Nomme must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kalju Nomme win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme -2
35.1%
@ 4.00+13.2%
Draw -2
19.1%
@ 4.40-0.7%
Nõmme United +2
45.8%
@ 1.50-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
4.00
Draw
Unibet
4.40
Away
Unibet
1.50
Handicap -1 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme -1
54.2%
@ 2.30+16.3%
Draw -1
18.3%
@ 3.60-5.9%
Nõmme United +1
27.4%
@ 2.30-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.30
Draw
Unibet
3.60
Away
Unibet
2.30
Handicap +1 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme +1
87.7%
@ 1.15+11.2%
Draw +1
7.4%
@ 6.40-6.4%
Nõmme United -1
4.9%
@ 9.00-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.15
Draw
Unibet
6.40
Away
Unibet
9.00
Handicap +2 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme +2
95.1%
Draw +2
3.4%
Nõmme United -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.50
0.71
0.43
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.25
0.25
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.60
1.87
0.73
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.64
1.50
0.92
1.60
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.4%
Under 0.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.0%
@ 2.00+10.3%
Under 1.5
44.0%
@ 1.68-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.68
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.1%
Under 2.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HT
Over
67.2%
@ 1.46+4.6%
Under
32.8%
@ 2.45-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.46
Under
Unibet
2.45
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HT
Over
40.8%
Under
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HT
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.0%
@ 2.20-16.7%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.57+16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.20
Under
Unibet
1.57
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.58
0.86
0.86
2.20
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
1.38
0.88
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.73
1.73
0.40
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.68
1.42
0.50
1.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.1%
Under 0.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.60+8.7%
Under 1.5
34.0%
@ 2.15-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.60
Under
Unibet
2.15
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.7%
Under 2.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2H
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2H
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2H
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
93.7%
1.08
Unibet
1.08
-
-
-
-
+9.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.7%
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
Home +1 handicap
87.7%
1.15
Unibet
1.15
-
-
-
-
+11.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.9%
1.17
Unibet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Under 6.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
81.3%
1.38
Unibet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+16.4%
Over 2.5
81.1%
1.38
Unibet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+15.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.0%
1.57
Unibet
1.57
-
-
-
-
+16.7%
Home win
72.6%
1.50
Unibet
1.53
1xBet
1.47
-
-
-
+11.5%
Under 5.5
72.5%
1.07
Unibet
1.07
-
-
-
-
-12.6%
Away over 0.5 goals
72.5%
1.32
Unibet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Kalju Nomme's squad is €3m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Kalju Nomme and Nõmme United have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Nõmme United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Kalju Nomme's defence is €1m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€2m vs €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
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FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva