This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.23
2.27
1.13
2.27
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.50
1.42
3.00
0.83
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.11
1.11
1.78
1.33
2.44
0.89
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.6%
Under 2.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-0 ✓
8.3%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-0
6.8%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
Kalju Nomme goals ↓
Paide goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
5.8%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.3%
13%
6.9%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.4%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.3%
5.2%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalju Nomme goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.60
Trans Narva
2.40
Kuressaare
2.25
Laagri
2.25
Vaprus
2.25
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.25
JK Tabasalu
2.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.25
Tamper
2.25
Paide
2.00
Elva
2.00
Phoenix
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.00
Helios
2.00
Legion
1.75
Nõmme United
1.50
Tammeka
1.50
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
Kohtla-Järve
1.50
Maksatransport
1.50
Inter Tartu
1.50
Ararat (Estonia)
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Starmedia
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Vastseliina
1.50
Flora II
1.33
Tulevik
1.33
Hiiumaa
1.33
Tartu Welco
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
KUBIK
1.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Pärnu
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Saue
0.00
Järva-Jaani
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kose II
0.00
Eston Villa
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
Saku Sporting
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Hell Hunt
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
GameSport
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Pelgu City
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Poseidon
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Smsraha
0.00
NPM Silmet
0.00
Saare Latte
0.00
Loo
0.00
Kalju Nomme is 0.67 points better than Paide in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tammeka
12.50
Laagri
11.00
Vaprus
6.25
Kalju Nomme
6.00
Tallinna Kalev
5.50
Kuressaare
5.25
Elva
4.67
Nõmme United
4.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
4.40
Tartu Kalev
4.33
Tallinna Kalev II
4.00
Trans Narva
3.80
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.67
JK Tabasalu
3.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.00
Hiiumaa
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.00
Vastseliina
3.00
NPM Silmet
3.00
Phoenix
2.50
Legion
2.50
Team Helm
2.50
Tamper
2.50
Helios
2.50
Kohtla-Järve
2.00
Starmedia
2.00
Saare Latte
2.00
Loo
2.00
FC Tallinn
1.75
Flora II
1.67
Tulevik
1.67
Maksatransport
1.50
Inter Tartu
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Ararat (Estonia)
1.50
Paide
1.33
Tartu Welco
1.00
Pärnu
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Kose
1.00
Eston Villa
1.00
FC Kohvile
1.00
Saku Sporting
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Welco X
1.00
Poseidon
1.00
EstHam United
1.00
Rumori Calcio
1.00
Smsraha
1.00
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Saue
0.00
Järva-Jaani
0.00
Kose II
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
GameSport
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Pelgu City
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
Kalju Nomme is 4.67 goals better than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (6.00 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kuressaare
0.50
Helios
0.50
Trans Narva
0.60
Paide
0.67
Kalju Nomme
0.67
Laagri
0.75
Vaprus
0.75
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Tammeka
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
Viimsi
1.00
JK Tabasalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.25
Elva
1.33
Nõmme United
1.50
Phoenix
1.50
Legion
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.67
Flora Tallinn
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
Maksatransport
2.00
Hiiumaa
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
2.50
Vastseliina
2.50
Flora II
2.67
Tartu Kalev
2.67
Tamper
2.75
Pärnu
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Raplamaa
3.00
Järva-Jaani
3.00
FC Kohvile
3.00
Hell Hunt
3.00
Starmedia
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Lootos
3.00
Welco X
3.00
EstHam United
3.00
Smsraha
3.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.50
Team Helm
3.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.50
Saue
4.00
Kuusalu Kalev
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Poseidon
4.00
NPM Silmet
4.00
Loo
4.00
Kohtla-Järve
4.50
Kristiine JK
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
5.00
Rumori Calcio
5.00
Ararat (Estonia)
5.50
Tallinna Kalev III
6.00
Kose
6.00
Flora III
6.00
Saare Latte
6.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
7.00
Pelgu City
7.00
Inter Tartu
7.50
Tallinna Wolves
8.00
Eston Villa
11.00
Olympic
11.00
Maardu Aliens
12.00
TransferWise
15.00
GameSport
24.00
Kose II
26.00
Kalju Nomme and Paide are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kalju Nomme or Draw✓ Hit
73.1%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
27%
covers Kalju Nomme + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme or Paide✓ Hit
73.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
27%
covers Kalju Nomme + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Paide✗ Miss
53.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
27%
covers Draw + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kalju Nomme, so a minus line means Kalju Nomme give that many goals of a start and Paide receive them. At -1, Kalju Nomme must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kalju Nomme win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kalju Nomme)Actual: Paide
Kalju Nomme -2
10.6%
Draw -2
14.5%
Paide +2
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kalju Nomme)Actual: Draw
Kalju Nomme -1
25.1%
Draw -1
21.5%
Paide +1
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kalju Nomme)Actual: Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme +1
73.1%
Draw +1
15.4%
Paide -1
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kalju Nomme)Actual: Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme +2
88.5%
Draw +2
7.8%
Paide -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.53
1.73
0.53
1.33
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.62
0.50
1.00
1.29
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
2.00
0.47
2.56
0.22
1.38
0.75
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.20
0.80
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.67
1.83
0.33
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.83
0.78
1.11
0.89
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.60
1.20
0.60
1.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.69
0.62
1.00
0.50
2.29
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.59
1.33
0.67
0.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.47
1.07
0.33
1.40
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.75
1.17
0.50
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.28
0.28
1.00
0.22
1.56
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Paide have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Paide have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Paide have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
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FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Trans Narva
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
Nõmme United
Viimsi