Kalju Nomme is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting a home win at 70% probability. This is largely due to their strong home form, where they have scored an average of 2.14 goals and conceded just 1 goal against weaker opponents. Tammeka, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring only 0.71 goals and conceding 3 goals against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a total of 3 goals, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1, occurring at 9.2% probability. Over 1.5 goals is the model's selection at 89% probability, with a 9% edge, while Over 2.5 goals is selected at 71.4% probability, with an 11% edge. Home win is also selected at 70.3% probability, with a 14% edge.
Kalju Nomme's home win percentage is 70%, the draw percentage is 17%, and the away win percentage is 12%. The expected total number of goals is 3.7, and the most likely score is 2-1, occurring at 9.2% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends Kalju Nomme's 2-game winning run, and they now sit on 5 consecutive home wins. The final score of 5-1 saw Kalju Nomme secure a convincing home win. The model's selection, the home win, proved correct with a 70.3% pre-match probability. The model's call was correct, as the actual result matched the model's pick. The suggested picks largely came in, with 'Over 1.5' hitting with a 89.0% probability, 'Over 2.5' also hitting with a 71.4% probability, and 'Home win' hitting with a 70.3% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kalju Nomme win✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied 56.0% · @ 1.61
Edge
+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.66
Dafabet
1.66
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Draw✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.87
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.19
Dafabet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.95
10Bet
3.95
Tammeka win✗ Miss
12.2%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.35
Edge
-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Betfair
4.60
Pinnacle
4.57
1xBet
4.56
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.97
1.73
1.07
1.40
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.23
1.43
1.29
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (17)
1.82
0.76
2.00
0.88
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.30
1.67
1.33
1.07
3.27
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
2.12
1.22
1.44
0.71
3.00
vs Similar (11)
1.18
2.73
1.00
1.25
1.29
3.57
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
1.67
5.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.0%
@ 1.14+9.0%
Under 1.5
11.0%
@ 4.56-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.20
888Sport
5.00
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.4%
@ 1.50+10.6%
Under 2.5
28.6%
@ 2.33-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.52
888Sport
2.40
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Bet365
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.5%
@ 2.26+9.9%
Under 3.5
49.5%
@ 1.54-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
888Sport
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
@ 1.54+2.3%
No
38.6%
@ 2.23-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Superbet
1.57
No
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.28
888Sport
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%@ 7.12+3.2%
2-0
8.6%@ 8.49+3.7%
3-1
8.0%@ 10.43+4.0%
1-1
7.6%@ 7.19+1.8%
3-0
7.6%@ 11.99+4.1%
1-0
5.9%@ 8.33+0.8%
4-1
5.3%@ 19.11+3.1%
4-0
5.0%@ 21.78+3.1%
Kalju Nomme goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
1.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
5.9%
7.6%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
2
8.6%
9.2%
4.9%
1.7%
0.5%
3
7.6%
8.0%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
4
5.0%
5.3%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalju Nomme goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.17
Trans Narva
1.17
Nõmme United
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Laagri
1.00
Kalju Nomme is 0.83 points better than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.40
Kalju Nomme
2.33
Laagri
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Vaprus
1.67
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.25
Nõmme United
1.17
Trans Narva
1.17
Kuressaare
1.14
Kalju Nomme is 1.08 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Flora Tallinn
1.20
Paide
1.60
Laagri
1.67
Kuressaare
1.71
Vaprus
1.83
Trans Narva
1.83
Nõmme United
2.33
Tammeka
2.75
Kalju Nomme is 2.08 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 2.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.40
0.27
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.29
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.35
0.38
0.25
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.23
0.93
0.93
0.60
1.53
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
1.19
1.00
1.11
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.45
0.75
0.75
0.71
1.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.0%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
71.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.51
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Home win
70.3%
1.61
Superbet
1.66
Dafabet
1.66
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
+14.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
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FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Laagri
Nõmme United