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Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva Result & Analysis

Date: 05/08/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 4-0
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Vs
55%
27%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Kalju Nomme win✓ Hit
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva win✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W12L12L10W20W00D12L03L10WH·LAA12/05A·TRA20/05H·TAM24/05A·FC 28/05H·VAP06/06H·KUR10/06A·PAI27/06H·TAL02/07A·FC 09/07H·LAA22/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.931.270.800.801.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.601.400.801.000.401.80
vs Weaker (20)1.250.701.500.701.000.70
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L21W10W20W03L03L04L02L03L41WH·FLO23/05A·PAI28/05A·TAL07/06H·TAM11/06A·KUR27/06A·FC 01/07H·VAP08/07A·PYU13/07H·PYU20/07A·FLO23/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.570.621.460.821.65
vs Stronger (15)0.531.870.001.500.892.11
vs Similar (15)0.931.271.141.430.751.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.2%
3-0
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.3%
Kalju Nomme goals ↓
Trans Narva goals →
01234
09.2%5.8%3.0%0.9%0.2%
112%13%5.0%1.5%0.3%
211%9.5%4.2%1.2%0.3%
36.0%5.3%2.3%0.7%0.1%
42.5%2.2%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalju Nomme goals (down), columns = Trans Narva goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Kalju Nomme is 0.31 points better than Trans Narva in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Kalju Nomme is 0.50 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 0.89).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Kalju Nomme is 0.61 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.78).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W10W02L10W00D00D10W03L10WH·LAA12/05A·TRA20/05H·TAM24/05A·FC 28/05H·VAP06/06H·KUR10/06A·PAI27/06H·TAL02/07A·FC 09/07H·LAA22/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.300.800.000.400.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.600.600.000.201.20
vs Weaker (20)0.700.150.900.000.500.30
Clean sheet %83% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D10W10W01L01L02L00D02L30WH·FLO23/05A·PAI28/05A·TAL07/06H·TAM11/06A·KUR27/06A·FC 01/07H·VAP08/07A·PYU13/07H·PYU20/07A·FLO23/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.150.850.590.76
vs Stronger (15)0.330.870.001.000.560.78
vs Similar (15)0.470.730.290.710.620.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W02L10W00D20W00D02L00D00DH·LAA12/05A·TRA20/05H·TAM24/05A·FC 28/05H·VAP06/06H·KUR10/06A·PAI27/06H·TAL02/07A·FC 09/07H·LAA22/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.630.470.800.400.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.200.800.201.000.200.60
vs Weaker (20)0.550.550.600.700.500.40
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D10W02L02L02L02L01L11DH·FLO23/05A·PAI28/05A·TAL07/06H·TAM11/06A·KUR27/06A·FC 01/07H·VAP08/07A·PYU13/07H·PYU20/07A·FLO23/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.770.460.620.240.88
vs Stronger (15)0.201.000.000.500.331.33
vs Similar (15)0.470.530.860.710.120.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.573.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kalju Nomme's squad is €2m more valuable than Trans Narva's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kalju Nomme's defence is €1m more valuable than Trans Narva's (€2m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
KN wins
2
Draws
1
TN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva · H/A from KN
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/23ATrans Narva Vs KN0-2
01/04/23HKN Vs Trans Narva2-0
23/10/22ATrans Narva Vs KN0-0
23/07/22ATrans Narva Vs KN2-1
16/07/22HKN Vs Trans Narva1-1
23/04/22HKN Vs Trans Narva3-0

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/07/23HKN Vs Laagri1-0
09/07/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KN3-0
02/07/23HKN Vs Tallinna Kalev1-2
27/06/23APaide Vs KN0-0
10/06/23HKN Vs Kuressaare2-0
06/06/23HKN Vs Vaprus1-0
28/05/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KN2-1
24/05/23HKN Vs Tammeka1-2
20/05/23ATrans Narva Vs KN0-2
12/05/23HKN Vs Laagri1-1

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/23AFlora Tallinn Vs TN1-4
20/07/23HTN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-3
13/07/23APyunik Yerevan Vs TN2-0
08/07/23HTN Vs Vaprus0-4
01/07/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN3-0
27/06/23AKuressaare Vs TN3-0
11/06/23HTN Vs Tammeka2-0
07/06/23ATallinna Kalev Vs TN0-1
28/05/23APaide Vs TN1-2
23/05/23HTN Vs Flora Tallinn0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.52
HomeLWWLW1.76
AwayLWLDL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%52%32%
AVG goals2.222.402.04
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %42%44%40%
Over 3.5 %12%20%4%
Scored1.321.641.00
Conceded0.900.761.04
BTTS40%44%36%
Clean Sheet42%44%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.96
HomeLLWLL1.08
AwayWLLLW0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals2.662.253.04
Over 1.5 %74%67%81%
Over 2.5 %42%38%46%
Over 3.5 %22%17%27%
Scored0.940.881.00
Conceded1.721.382.04
BTTS38%29%46%
Clean Sheet14%21%8%
Corners8.007.009.00
Cards2.002.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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