Kalju Nomme are the clear favourites, the model rating them at 70 % for a home win, 18 % for a draw and 12 % for a Trans Narva victory. The prediction hinges on Kalju’s strong home form against weaker opposition, averaging 2.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded, while Trans Narva struggle on the road, conceding 2.25 and scoring only 0.62 against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively match, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 at 10.1 %. Both sides are coming off defeats - Kalju lost 0-1 to Laagri and Trans Narva fell 0-4 to FC Levadia Tallinn - yet the home side’s advantage remains decisive. The model’s suggested picks reflect this dominance: Away under 3.5 goals98.4 %, Under 7.597.7 %, Home +2 handicap95.9 %, Under 6.594.2 %, Away under 2.5 goals92.9 %, Home over 0.5 goals91.4 %, Home or Draw88.2 %, and Home +1 handicap88.2 %. Each selection carries its own probability, with no other outcomes linked to the match result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kalju Nomme win
67.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva win
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.97
2.13
1.20
2.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.75
1.08
1.57
1.29
4.40
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.89
2.62
1.12
1.40
0.70
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.50
2.50
1.33
1.00
1.75
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
2.07
1.11
1.78
0.60
2.60
vs Similar (15)
2.27
1.07
3.12
1.00
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
10.00
0.00
10.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.1%
1-1
8.6%
3-1
7.8%
3-0
7.4%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
4-1
4.7%
Kalju Nomme goals ↓
Trans Narva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.4%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
1
6.6%
8.6%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
2
9.1%
9.5%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
7.4%
7.8%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
4
4.5%
4.7%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kalju Nomme goals (down), columns = Trans Narva goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Kalju Nomme is 0.88 points better than Trans Narva in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Kalju Nomme is 1.12 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Kalju Nomme is 1.12 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kalju Nomme or Draw
86.2%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
14%
covers Kalju Nomme + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme or Trans Narva
80.9%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
14%
covers Kalju Nomme + Trans Narva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Trans Narva
32.9%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
14%
covers Draw + Trans Narva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5
Over
91.3%
Under
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5
Over
44.2%
Under
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 3.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5
Over
28.4%
Under
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kalju Nomme, so a minus line means Kalju Nomme give that many goals of a start and Trans Narva receive them. At -1, Kalju Nomme must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kalju Nomme win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme -2
26.1%
Draw -2
19.8%
Trans Narva +2
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme -1
45.9%
Draw -1
21.2%
Trans Narva +1
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme +1
86.2%
Draw +1
8.7%
Trans Narva -1
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kalju Nomme)
Kalju Nomme +2
94.9%
Draw +2
3.7%
Trans Narva -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.50
0.71
0.43
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.25
0.25
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.22
0.72
0.33
0.75
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.56
1.00
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.67
1.62
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.9%
Under 0.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.9%
Under 1.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.7%
Under 2.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HT
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.58
0.86
0.86
2.20
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
1.38
0.88
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.28
0.61
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.21
0.56
0.78
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.40
1.50
0.50
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.5%
Under 0.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
60.1%
Under 1.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.3%
Under 2.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2H
Over
77.7%
Under
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2H
Over
46.6%
Under
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2H
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Kalju Nomme's squad is €2m more valuable than Trans Narva's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Kalju Nomme's defence is €1m more valuable than Trans Narva's (€2m vs €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
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FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Nõmme United