Kalju Nomme vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Kalju Nomme are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 53% chance of victory, a 25% draw probability and a 23% chance of an away win. The match is expected to see three goals on average, yet the most likely total is two, a 23% chance. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, with an 11.5% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest. Kalju’s home form against weaker opponents has been prolific, averaging 3.25 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded, while Vaprus, playing away against stronger teams, has struggled to find the net, scoring just 0.83 and conceding 1.83 on average. The model’s only selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.6% probability. These figures paint a picture of a high-scoring affair that still favours the home side.

Kalju Nomme’s run of two straight defeats left them looking fragile at home, yet the pre-match favourite was still the home side, with a 53% chance of victory. The match turned out to be an upset, as Vaprus secured a 2-1 away win, proving the model’s call wrong. The model’s only other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 81.6% probability. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result, confirming the away triumph. Despite Kalju’s strong home form, Vaprus’s 0.83 average goals scored and 1.83 conceded away proved decisive. The model’s prediction of a home win was therefore missed.