Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with Kallithea’s home form showing a modest 1.13 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game, while Asteras Tripolis II, on the road, averages 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model favours a Kallithea victory, assigning 42% to a home win, 31% to a draw and 27% to an away win. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight, low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 14.5% probability. The single most likely total of two goals carries a 28% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.7%), Under 4.5 (92.5%) and Home +2 handicap (89.9%). Kallithea come off a defeat, as does Asteras Tripolis II, setting the stage for a cautious, defensive battle.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kallithea win
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II win
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kallithea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
1.12
1.06
1.15
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.92
1.13
1.07
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asteras Tripolis II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.57
1.00
0.94
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.21
1.14
1.46
0.92
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
3.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.3%
Under 2.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.5%
No
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
12.2%
0-1
9.1%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.0%
Kallithea goals ↓
Asteras Tripolis II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.1%
5.0%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.6%
8.3%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.6%
3.5%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kallithea goals (down), columns = Asteras Tripolis II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panionios
2.08
Niki Volos
2.00
Larisa
1.80
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.71
Marko
1.67
PAOK II
1.64
Kallithea
1.61
Ellas Syros
1.61
Asteras Tripolis II
1.54
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.43
Pyrgos 1968
1.41
Zakynthos
1.41
Panthrakikos
1.41
Panserraikos
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.29
Apollon Pontou
1.18
Kallithea is 0.07 points better than Asteras Tripolis II in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niki Volos
1.92
PAOK II
1.57
Larisa
1.48
Panionios
1.46
Ellas Syros
1.43
Asteras Tripolis II
1.21
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.17
Pyrgos 1968
1.16
Zakynthos
1.16
Panthrakikos
1.16
Kallithea
1.14
Marko
1.12
Panserraikos
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.08
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.07
Apollon Pontou
0.97
Kallithea is 0.07 goals worse than Asteras Tripolis II in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Niki Volos
0.50
Panionios
0.54
Marko
0.71
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.75
Kallithea
0.79
Ellas Syros
0.86
Larisa
0.89
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0.93
PAOK II
1.11
Asteras Tripolis II
1.12
Pyrgos 1968
1.13
Zakynthos
1.13
Panthrakikos
1.13
Panserraikos
1.17
Apollon Pontou
1.35
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.58
Kallithea is 0.34 goals better than Asteras Tripolis II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kallithea or Draw
73.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
27%
covers Kallithea + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kallithea or Asteras Tripolis II
68.8%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
27%
covers Kallithea + Asteras Tripolis II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Asteras Tripolis II
58.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
27%
covers Draw + Asteras Tripolis II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kallithea over/under 0.5
Over
71.6%
Under
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 0.5
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 1.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 2.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kallithea, so a minus line means Kallithea give that many goals of a start and Asteras Tripolis II receive them. At -1, Kallithea must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kallithea win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kallithea)
Kallithea -2
6.7%
Draw -2
12.7%
Asteras Tripolis II +2
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kallithea)
Kallithea -1
19.4%
Draw -1
22.5%
Asteras Tripolis II +1
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kallithea)
Kallithea +1
73.1%
Draw +1
16.8%
Asteras Tripolis II -1
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kallithea)
Kallithea +2
89.9%
Draw +2
7.4%
Asteras Tripolis II -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kallithea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.41
0.65
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asteras Tripolis II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.79
0.43
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.54
0.77
0.38
0.47
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kallithea over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kallithea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
0.71
0.41
0.85
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.32
0.73
0.40
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Asteras Tripolis II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.79
0.57
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.61
0.69
0.54
0.53
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kallithea over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kallithea · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Migouel Alfarela47%
Giannis Loukinas17%
Keelan Lebon15%
Elia Giani13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Mathieu Valbuena9%
Pyry Soiri9%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin8%
Miguel Mellado7%
Roberts Uldriķis7%
Nikolaos Kenourgios5%
Mor Ndiaye4%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis4%
Javier Matilla4%
Demethryus3%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Georgios Manthatis0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Andreas Vasilogiannis0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Josua Mejías0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Alessandro Mercati0%
Andrei Moțoc0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Triantafyllos Pasalidis46%
Josua Mejías38%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin33%
Alessandro Mercati30%
Georgios Vrakas27%
Miguel Mellado27%
Mor Ndiaye26%
Andreas Vasilogiannis25%
Andrei Moțoc25%
Javier Matilla23%
Elia Giani22%
Georgios Manthatis21%
François Régis Mughe20%
Nikolaos Kenourgios15%
Dimitrios Metaxas14%
Giannis Tsivelekidis14%
James McGarry12%
Samba Diba12%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Matěj Hanousek8%
Giannis Loukinas7%
Mathieu Valbuena6%
Pyry Soiri6%
Demethryus6%
Migouel Alfarela6%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Keelan Lebon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mor Ndiaye13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Mathieu Valbuena9%
Demethryus9%
Elia Giani9%
Andrei Moțoc8%
Javier Matilla8%
Keelan Lebon8%
Pyry Soiri6%
Josua Mejías4%
Georgios Manthatis4%
Giannis Loukinas3%
Alessandro Mercati3%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis0%
Miguel Mellado0%
Nikolaos Kenourgios0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Andreas Vasilogiannis0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Migouel Alfarela29%
Roberts Uldriķis20%
Giannis Loukinas14%
Elia Giani13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Andreas Vasilogiannis8%
Demethryus6%
Alessandro Mercati3%
Mathieu Valbuena3%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin0%
Pyry Soiri0%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Georgios Manthatis0%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis0%
Miguel Mellado0%
Nikolaos Kenourgios0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Javier Matilla0%
Keelan Lebon0%
Josua Mejías0%
Mor Ndiaye0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Andrei Moțoc0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
MAR (27)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ATI (23)
€4m
NC (23)
€3m
ES (20)
€3m
AP (16)
€2m
Kallithea's squad is €2m more valuable than Asteras Tripolis II's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (13)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
MAR (11)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
NC (9)
€1m
ES (9)
€1m
ATI (6)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis II have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
ATI (7)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
NC (5)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
ES (3)
€1m
MAR (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
Kallithea and Asteras Tripolis II have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
LAR (13)
€2m
MAR (12)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
NC (9)
€1m
ATI (10)
€1m
ES (8)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Kallithea's defence is €2m more valuable than Asteras Tripolis II's (€3m vs €1m).
Greece: Super League 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →
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Panserraikos
Ellas Syros
Panionios
Anagennisi Karditsas
Niki Volos
Zakynthos
PAOK II
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Marko
Apollon Pontou
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Larisa
Pyrgos 1968
Panthrakikos