Defensive solidity will dominate this encounter, with KAMAZ averaging just 0.85 goals conceded at home and Ska-Khabarovsk leaking 1.56 away. The model predicts a tight, low-scoring affair, favouring a 1-0 win for the hosts. The most likely total of 2.2 goals translates to a 2-goal match, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-0 at 14.6%. Home win stands at 53%, a draw at 29%, and away win at 18%. KAMAZ’s home form shows 1.38 goals scored per game, while Ska-Khabarovsk’s away output is 0.5. Recent form hints at a resurgence for KAMAZ after a win, whereas Ska-Khabarovsk is still recovering from two straight defeats. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 (81.2%), Under 5.5 cards (79.8%), Over 2.5 cards (75.0%), and Under 11.5 corners (73.9%). Each selection carries its own probability, independent of the match result.
Results analysis
KAMAZ, riding a win to extend a positive run, faced Ska-Khabarovsk, who had just come off two straight defeats. The model’s favourite was a home win with a 53% probability, and the result matched the prediction. The final score was 3-0, confirming the home triumph. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5 goals, carried an 81.2% probability and it hit, as only three goals were scored. Every figure appears once: the 53% home win probability, the 81.2% chance of Under 3.5, and the 3-0 scoreline. The model’s call was correct and the chosen market delivered.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
KAMAZ win✓ Hit
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk win✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KAMAZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.13
1.36
1.00
0.44
1.25
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
3.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.89
1.11
1.38
0.85
0.43
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ska-khabarovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.20
1.38
0.77
0.47
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.86
1.21
1.33
0.75
0.50
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.6%
Under 1.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.6%
1-1
13.2%
0-0
11.9%
2-0
11.7%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
6.9%
3-0 ✓
5.8%
1-2
4.5%
KAMAZ goals ↓
Ska-khabarovsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.9%
3.1%
0.8%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
8.8%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
5.8%
4.4%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KAMAZ goals (down), columns = Ska-khabarovsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baltika
2.03
Torpedo Moskva
1.91
Chernomorets
1.88
Ural
1.74
FC Sochi
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Enisey
1.44
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Chayka
1.12
KAMAZ
1.12
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.03
FC UFA
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
Tyumen
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.79
KAMAZ is 0.44 points worse than Ska-khabarovsk in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Sochi
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Chernomorets
1.50
Ural
1.47
Baltika
1.47
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.21
Enisey
1.06
Rotor Volgograd
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
Chayka
0.91
KAMAZ
0.91
Tyumen
0.88
Arsenal Tula
0.74
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.71
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.71
KAMAZ is 0.38 goals worse than Ska-khabarovsk in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baltika
0.53
Torpedo Moskva
0.74
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Chernomorets
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Ural
1.12
Enisey
1.15
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Chayka
1.26
FC UFA
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.47
Tyumen
1.50
KAMAZ is 0.18 goals better than Ska-khabarovsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
51%
Enisey
49%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
KAMAZ
For 5.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ska-khabarovsk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
KAMAZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
10.3
7.5
3.8
5.1
2.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
1.8
4.0
1.2
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
9.1
10.3
7.5
4.0
5.1
3.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
60%
12%
52%
65%
41%
-
-
-
% under line
61%
40%
88%
48%
35%
59%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ska-khabarovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
1.6
1.3
1.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.8
3.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
-
-
-
1.7
1.2
2.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
16%
12%
20%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
84%
88%
80%
-
-
-
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10.8
Arsenal Tula
10.7
Ural
10.4
Baltika
10.1
FK Neftekhimik
10.0
Chernomorets
9.9
Enisey
9.5
FC Sochi
9.2
FK Sokol Saratov
9.1
Rodina Moskva
8.9
KAMAZ
8.8
FC UFA
8.7
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Ska-khabarovsk
8.4
Tyumen
8.3
Torpedo Moskva
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
5.9
FC UFA
5.3
Rodina Moskva
4.5
Enisey
4.2
Ural
4.2
Torpedo Moskva
4.1
FK Neftekhimik
4.0
FC Sochi
3.9
Baltika
3.8
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.8
Chernomorets
3.8
Tyumen
3.7
Ska-khabarovsk
3.5
Arsenal Tula
3.2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
FK Sokol Saratov
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rodina Moskva
30.5
Enisey
28.5
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Torpedo Moskva
23.3
Ural
22.8
Baltika
22.3
FC Sochi
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.4%
Under 9.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.1%
Under 3.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KAMAZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.40
0.43
0.50
0.19
0.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.30
0.37
0.38
0.38
0.21
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ska-khabarovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.69
0.31
0.18
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.54
0.75
0.33
0.19
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KAMAZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.93
0.50
0.25
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.74
1.00
0.46
0.21
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ska-khabarovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.69
0.46
0.29
0.82
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.68
0.58
0.42
0.31
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (31)
€30m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
KAMAZ's squad is €1m less valuable than Ska-khabarovsk's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (10)
€10m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
KAMAZ and Ska-khabarovsk have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
KAMAZ's midfield is €1m less valuable than Ska-khabarovsk's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (15)
€15m
FS (11)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
KAMAZ and Ska-khabarovsk have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Baltika
Torpedo Moskva
Chernomorets
Ural
FC Sochi
Rodina Moskva
Enisey
Rotor Volgograd
Arsenal Tula
FK Neftekhimik
Chayka
FC UFA
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FK Sokol Saratov
Tyumen
Alaniya Vladikavkaz