KAMAZ, coming off a defeat to Volga Ulyanovsk, hosts Tekstilshchik at home. The home side has struggled to score, averaging just one goal per match at home, while conceding the same amount. Their opponents, Tekstilshchik, have fared even worse away from home, failing to score and conceding half a goal per match against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2.0 goals and a most likely score of 0-0, occurring 15.5% of the time. The most likely total number of goals is 2, with a probability of 28%. The model's selection is the home win, with a 44% chance of success.
The model also suggests the selection "Under 3.5", which has an 86.6% chance of being correct. Additionally, the home side's home scoring and conceding and the away side's away scoring and conceding versus this opponent's strength tier is as follows: KAMAZ average 1 goal at home and concede 1 goal at home, while Tekstilshchik average 0 goals away and concede 0.5 goals away.
The probabilities for the match outcome are: the home side winning 44%, the away side winning 23%, and the draw 33%. The model's other selections are "Under 3.5" at 86.6%, with no edge information available.
The pre-match favourite, a home win for KAMAZ, fell short as Tekstilshchik edged a 0-1 victory, extending their recent run of defeats. The model had given the home side a 44 % chance and a 33 % draw probability, but its call was wrong. The match produced only one goal, so the total fell well below the expected 2.0. Every suggested pick was a hit: Away under 3.5 goals (99.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95.5 %), Home +2 handicap (92.4 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.6 %), Under 3.5 (86.6 %) and Away under 1.5 goals (81.5 %). The model’s predictions largely proved accurate despite the upset.
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.03 | 1.67 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.32 | 1.04 | 1.71 | 1.07 | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Tekstilshchik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.78 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Tekstilshchik goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 15% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 15% | 14% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 9.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
KAMAZ
Tekstilshchik
KAMAZ| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | - | - | - | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 52% | 44% | 60% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 48% | 56% | 40% | - | - | - |
Tekstilshchik| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (9) | 12.0 | 12.0 | - | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (4) | 12.0 | 12.0 | - | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | - | 11% | 17% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | - | 89% | 83% | 100% | - | - | - |
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Tekstilshchik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.44 | 0.22 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 78% (+43pp vs league) | |||||
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.71 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Tekstilshchik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 56% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 3.5 goals | 99.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 96.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | +7.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 95.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | +5.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 92.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 88.6% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.15 | - | - | +10.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 86.6% | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | - | +12.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 81.5% | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.22 | - | +6.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 80.5% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +10.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 76.7% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.11 | - | -1.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Home +1 handicap | 76.7% | 1.19 | 1.19 | - | - | - | - | +2.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
KAMAZ| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 09/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 2-0 |
Tekstilshchik| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 24/09/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/09/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/08/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/09/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/08/24 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |