Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring encounter, with KAMAZ conceding just 0.85 goals per game at home and Ural allowing 1.4 on the road. The model favours a home win, assigning KAMAZ a 39% chance, a draw 32%, and an away win 29%. The expected total is 2.2 goals, with the most likely total being two and a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% chance. KAMAZ averages 1.23 goals scored and 0.85 conceded against similar opposition, while Ural nets 0.9 and concedes 1.4 in comparable away fixtures. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 82.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 81.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 73.7%. KAMAZ is riding a win, while Ural remains unbeaten in five, though the model still leans toward a KAMAZ victory.
Results analysis
The upset came as KAMAZ, the pre-match favourite, fell short of the expected win. With a 39% chance of triumph, the model’s pick was wrong, and the final 0-2 score gave Ural the away victory. The home side’s recent form, a win that extended a modest run, proved insufficient against a Ural side that remained unbeaten in their last five. The model’s selections performed mixed: Under 3.5 goals hit at 82.8%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 81.0%, while Over 2.5 cards missed at 73.7%. The match finished with a clean sheet for Ural and a disappointing result for the predicted home win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
KAMAZ win✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ural win✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KAMAZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.07
1.21
1.00
0.50
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
3.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.85
1.04
1.23
0.85
0.50
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.30
1.47
1.27
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.71
2.00
2.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.15
1.35
1.40
1.30
0.90
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.8%
Under 1.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.5%
Under 2.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.9%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
10.0%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.5%
0-2 ✓
5.5%
KAMAZ goals ↓
Ural goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10.0%
5.5%
1.8%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.1%
7.9%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KAMAZ goals (down), columns = Ural goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baltika
2.03
Torpedo Moskva
1.91
Chernomorets
1.88
Ural
1.74
FC Sochi
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Enisey
1.44
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Chayka
1.12
KAMAZ
1.12
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.03
FC UFA
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
Tyumen
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.79
KAMAZ is 0.62 points worse than Ural in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Sochi
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Chernomorets
1.50
Ural
1.47
Baltika
1.47
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.21
Enisey
1.06
Rotor Volgograd
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
Chayka
0.91
KAMAZ
0.91
Tyumen
0.88
Arsenal Tula
0.74
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.71
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.71
KAMAZ is 0.56 goals worse than Ural in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baltika
0.53
Torpedo Moskva
0.74
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Chernomorets
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Ural
1.12
Enisey
1.15
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Chayka
1.26
FC UFA
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.47
Tyumen
1.50
KAMAZ is 0.09 goals better than Ural in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
51%
Enisey
49%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
KAMAZ
For 6.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ural
For 5.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 13.7 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KAMAZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.9
7.5
3.5
4.4
2.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
2.2
4.0
1.7
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
9.3
10.9
7.5
3.6
4.4
2.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
67%
12%
50%
58%
42%
-
-
-
% under line
59%
33%
88%
50%
42%
58%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.0
10.1
3.4
3.3
3.5
22.9
22.3
23.6
vs Stronger (14)
11.0
11.4
10.6
4.8
5.4
4.1
22.9
21.9
23.9
vs Similar (32)
10.4
10.8
10.1
3.1
2.9
3.3
23.2
22.5
23.9
vs Weaker (4)
7.0
-
7.0
1.2
0.0
2.5
17.0
-
17.0
% over line
55%
60%
50%
46%
42%
50%
57%
45%
70%
% under line
45%
40%
50%
54%
58%
50%
43%
55%
30%
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10.8
Arsenal Tula
10.7
Ural
10.5
Baltika
10.1
FK Neftekhimik
10.0
Chernomorets
9.9
Enisey
9.6
FC Sochi
9.2
FK Sokol Saratov
9.1
Rodina Moskva
9.0
KAMAZ
8.8
FC UFA
8.7
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.6
Ska-khabarovsk
8.4
Tyumen
8.3
Torpedo Moskva
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
5.7
FC UFA
5.4
Rodina Moskva
4.6
Enisey
4.2
Torpedo Moskva
4.1
Ural
4.1
FK Neftekhimik
4.0
Baltika
3.8
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.8
FC Sochi
3.7
Chayka
3.7
Tyumen
3.6
Chernomorets
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.5
Rotor Volgograd
3.3
Arsenal Tula
3.2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.0
FK Sokol Saratov
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rodina Moskva
30.5
Enisey
28.5
Torpedo Moskva
24.0
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Ural
23.1
Baltika
22.3
FC Sochi
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.6%
Under 9.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 3.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KAMAZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.37
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.37
0.33
0.46
0.38
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.53
0.47
0.47
0.13
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.45
0.40
0.40
0.10
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KAMAZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.71
0.50
0.25
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.70
0.77
0.46
0.21
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
1.00
0.80
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.71
1.33
1.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.90
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ural · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksey Kashtanov23%
Andrey Egorychev20%
Aleksey Ionov17%
Silvije Begić15%
Eric Bicfalvi14%
Danijel Miškić12%
Guilherme Schettine8%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet6%
Timur Ayupov4%
Ilya Ishkov4%
Ilya Pomazun0%
Artem Mamin0%
Yuri Gazinskiy0%
Egor Filipenko0%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Ibrahima Cisse0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Alexander Yushin0%
Rai Vloet0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Denys Kulakov0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Valeri Bocherov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Ítalo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Silvije Begić42%
Valeri Bocherov25%
Denys Kulakov19%
Aleksey Ionov17%
Guilherme Schettine17%
Timur Ayupov17%
Danijel Miškić15%
Yuri Gazinskiy14%
Kiki Afonso14%
Ilya Pomazun14%
Egor Filipenko12%
Ítalo12%
Mingiyan Beveev11%
Ilya Ishkov11%
Ibrahima Cisse10%
Eric Bicfalvi9%
Andrey Egorychev8%
Artem Mamin8%
Alexander Yushin8%
Aleksey Kashtanov8%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet6%
Igor Dmitriev4%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Rai Vloet0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrey Egorychev12%
Eric Bicfalvi9%
Ítalo8%
Alexander Yushin8%
Danijel Miškić8%
Igor Dmitriev8%
Ilya Ishkov7%
Timur Ayupov4%
Silvije Begić4%
Denys Kulakov4%
Aleksey Kashtanov4%
Ilya Pomazun0%
Artem Mamin0%
Yuri Gazinskiy0%
Egor Filipenko0%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Aleksey Ionov0%
Ibrahima Cisse0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Rai Vloet0%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet0%
Guilherme Schettine0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Valeri Bocherov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Guilherme Schettine17%
Aleksey Kashtanov15%
Eric Bicfalvi14%
Andrey Egorychev12%
Timur Ayupov8%
Alexander Yushin8%
Silvije Begić4%
Igor Dmitriev4%
Ilya Ishkov4%
Ilya Pomazun0%
Artem Mamin0%
Yuri Gazinskiy0%
Egor Filipenko0%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Aleksey Ionov0%
Ibrahima Cisse0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Rai Vloet0%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Danijel Miškić0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Denys Kulakov0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Valeri Bocherov0%
Ítalo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (31)
€30m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
KAMAZ's squad is €6m less valuable than Ural's (€5m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (10)
€10m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
KAMAZ's attack is €2m less valuable than Ural's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
KAMAZ's midfield is €2m less valuable than Ural's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (15)
€15m
FS (11)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
KAMAZ's defence is €2m less valuable than Ural's (€2m vs €4m).
Russia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
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Baltika
Torpedo Moskva
Chernomorets
FC Sochi
Ska-khabarovsk
Rodina Moskva
Enisey
Rotor Volgograd
Arsenal Tula
FK Neftekhimik
Chayka
FC UFA
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FK Sokol Saratov
Tyumen
Alaniya Vladikavkaz