The contest between KAMAZ and Ural is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 36%. Home and away win probabilities sit at 33% and 31% respectively, leaving a 31% chance of a draw. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.6% probability. KAMAZ, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while Ural, on the road, averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (93.7%), Over 21.5 fouls (86.6%), Under 11.5 corners (80.6%), Under 3.5 (79.8% miss), Over 2.5 cards (78.5% hit), Under 5.5 cards (75.9% hit), Over 23.5 fouls (75.8%), and Under 10.5 corners (70.9%). Both teams have shown recent resilience, with KAMAZ coming off a win and Ural unbeaten in their last five. The match remains finely balanced, but the model’s pick points to an away victory.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: KAMAZ snatched a 5-1 victory, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win, which had a 36% probability. The prediction was wrong. The final score of 5-1 confirmed a home win, a result the model had not anticipated. The model’s other selections fell short: Under 3.5 goals, projected at 79.8%, missed, while Over 2.5 cards at 78.5% and Under 5.5 cards at 75.9% both hit. KAMAZ’s recent form, highlighted by a win, and Ural’s unbeaten streak of five games added context to the unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
KAMAZ win✓ Hit
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ural win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KAMAZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.17
1.25
1.06
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.14
1.21
1.36
1.14
0.93
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.13
1.88
1.12
1.00
1.14
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.12
1.71
1.21
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.80
3.00
0.50
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.6%
Under 2.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
10.5%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
6.2%
KAMAZ goals ↓
Ural goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.1%
2.8%
0.8%
1
9.8%
15%
7.9%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.2%
7.4%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.3%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KAMAZ goals (down), columns = Ural goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Fakel
2.00
Ural
1.79
Rotor Volgograd
1.65
Spartak Kostroma
1.44
Enisey
1.44
KAMAZ
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.35
Chelyabinsk
1.29
FK Neftekhimik
1.26
Ska-khabarovsk
1.18
Arsenal Tula
1.15
FC UFA
1.12
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.09
Chernomorets
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76
Chayka
0.65
KAMAZ is 0.35 points worse than Ural in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rodina Moskva
1.71
Ural
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Spartak Kostroma
1.35
KAMAZ
1.35
Fakel
1.29
Chelyabinsk
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.24
FK Neftekhimik
1.18
Torpedo Moskva
1.09
Enisey
1.09
Chernomorets
1.09
Ska-khabarovsk
1.03
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.03
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
FC UFA
0.97
Chayka
0.88
FK Sokol Saratov
0.47
KAMAZ is 0.15 goals worse than Ural in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fakel
0.65
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.82
Rodina Moskva
0.82
Ural
0.91
KAMAZ
1.00
Enisey
1.03
FC UFA
1.12
Torpedo Moskva
1.15
Chelyabinsk
1.18
Spartak Kostroma
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.29
Ska-khabarovsk
1.36
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.41
Chernomorets
1.44
Chayka
2.24
KAMAZ is 0.09 goals worse than Ural in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Fakel
53%
FK Neftekhimik
51%
Arsenal Tula
50%
Enisey
50%
Ska-khabarovsk
50%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Torpedo Moskva
48%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
KAMAZ
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ural
For 4.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.5 · Against 10.5 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KAMAZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
3.5
3.4
3.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
2.5
5.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
-
-
-
3.5
3.2
3.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
56%
56%
56%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
44%
44%
44%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.0
11.0
3.2
3.2
3.1
29.0
26.0
32.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
3.0
-
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
9.5
8.0
11.0
3.5
3.6
3.3
29.0
26.0
32.0
vs Weaker (10)
-
-
-
2.1
1.6
2.6
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
46%
52%
40%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
54%
48%
60%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal Tula
12.5
KAMAZ
11.5
Ural
10.5
Torpedo Moskva
9.5
FC UFA
9.4
Fakel
9.1
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
6.3
Chernomorets
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fakel
5.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.6
KAMAZ
4.5
FC UFA
4.4
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Chayka
3.8
Ural
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Enisey
3.8
Chernomorets
3.7
FK Sokol Saratov
3.7
Chelyabinsk
3.7
Rodina Moskva
3.5
Ska-khabarovsk
3.4
Torpedo Moskva
3.4
Arsenal Tula
3.2
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Fakel
26.6
Ural
25.2
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.9%
Under 9.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.8%
Under 3.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.6%
Under 21.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KAMAZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.31
0.56
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.64
0.36
0.64
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.81
0.50
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.46
0.79
0.57
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KAMAZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.94
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.06
0.62
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.67
0.93
0.64
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
2.00
0.50
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ural · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksey Kashtanov23%
Andrey Egorychev20%
Aleksey Ionov17%
Silvije Begić15%
Eric Bicfalvi14%
Danijel Miškić12%
Guilherme Schettine8%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet6%
Timur Ayupov4%
Ilya Ishkov4%
Ilya Pomazun0%
Artem Mamin0%
Yuri Gazinskiy0%
Egor Filipenko0%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Ibrahima Cisse0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Alexander Yushin0%
Rai Vloet0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Denys Kulakov0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Valeri Bocherov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Ítalo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Silvije Begić42%
Valeri Bocherov25%
Denys Kulakov19%
Aleksey Ionov17%
Guilherme Schettine17%
Timur Ayupov17%
Danijel Miškić15%
Yuri Gazinskiy14%
Kiki Afonso14%
Ilya Pomazun14%
Egor Filipenko12%
Ítalo12%
Mingiyan Beveev11%
Ilya Ishkov11%
Ibrahima Cisse10%
Eric Bicfalvi9%
Andrey Egorychev8%
Artem Mamin8%
Alexander Yushin8%
Aleksey Kashtanov8%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet6%
Igor Dmitriev4%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Rai Vloet0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrey Egorychev12%
Eric Bicfalvi9%
Ítalo8%
Alexander Yushin8%
Danijel Miškić8%
Igor Dmitriev8%
Ilya Ishkov7%
Timur Ayupov4%
Silvije Begić4%
Denys Kulakov4%
Aleksey Kashtanov4%
Ilya Pomazun0%
Artem Mamin0%
Yuri Gazinskiy0%
Egor Filipenko0%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Aleksey Ionov0%
Ibrahima Cisse0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Rai Vloet0%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet0%
Guilherme Schettine0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Valeri Bocherov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Guilherme Schettine17%
Aleksey Kashtanov15%
Eric Bicfalvi14%
Andrey Egorychev12%
Timur Ayupov8%
Alexander Yushin8%
Silvije Begić4%
Igor Dmitriev4%
Ilya Ishkov4%
Ilya Pomazun0%
Artem Mamin0%
Yuri Gazinskiy0%
Egor Filipenko0%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Aleksey Ionov0%
Ibrahima Cisse0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Rai Vloet0%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Danijel Miškić0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Denys Kulakov0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Valeri Bocherov0%
Ítalo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
KAMAZ's squad is €6m less valuable than Ural's (€5m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
KAMAZ's attack is €2m less valuable than Ural's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
KAMAZ's midfield is €2m less valuable than Ural's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
KAMAZ's defence is €2m less valuable than Ural's (€2m vs €4m).
Russia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
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Rodina Moskva
Fakel
Rotor Volgograd
Spartak Kostroma
Enisey
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Torpedo Moskva
Chelyabinsk
FK Neftekhimik
Arsenal Tula
Ska-khabarovsk
FC UFA
Volga Ulyanovsk
Chernomorets
FK Sokol Saratov
Chayka