KAMAZ and Volga Ulyanovsk are set to face off on August 9th in the Russia: First League. Volga Ulyanovsk's recent form is concerning, coming off a 0-2 defeat to Chelyabinsk, while KAMAZ is coming off a draw against FC UFA. The model's selection is the home win, with a 43% probability, while the away win is the least likely outcome at 27%. The draw is a 30% possibility.
The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability. KAMAZ has been scoring an average of 1.75 goals at home, while conceding 0.92 goals. Volga Ulyanovsk, on the other hand, scores 1.5 goals away, but also concedes 1.5 goals.
The model suggests several selections: Under 9.5 corners (100% probability, with a 47% edge), Under 21.5 fouls (100%), Under 3.5 goals (79.5% probability, with a 3% edge), and Over 3.5 cards (73.1%). Home win percentage is 43%, draw percentage is 30%, and away win percentage is 27%.
The upset of the day came as Volga Ulyanovsk secured a 1-2 away win against KAMAZ, ending the home team's run of three consecutive losses. The win extends Volga Ulyanovsk's recent form, following a win and two draws before a loss. In a surprising turn of events, the pre-match favourite, KAMAZ, failed to come through, with the model's selection of a home win being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, despite the team having a 43% chance of winning.
The model's selection of an under 3.5 total goals hit, with a probability of 79.5%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a 28% probability. Volga Ulyanovsk's away form has been a mix of wins and losses, while KAMAZ's home form has been inconsistent, with a recent loss to Volga Ulyanovsk.
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.90 | 1.50 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.21 | 0.89 | 1.53 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.37 | 1.07 | 1.40 | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.22 | 1.57 | 1.17 | 1.58 | 1.27 | 1.55 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Volga Ulyanovsk goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
KAMAZ
Volga Ulyanovsk
KAMAZ| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | - | - | - | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 56% | 50% | 62% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 44% | 50% | 38% | - | - | - |
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (15) | 6.5 | - | 6.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 7.5 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 32% | 24% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 72% | 68% | 76% | - | - | - |
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.52 | 0.74 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.81 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.64 | 0.39 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 84.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 79.5% | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.17 | - | +2.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 76.5% | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.23 | - | - | - | +3.3% | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 | H | 2-3 | |
| 26/07/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/03/23 | H | 0-0 | |
| 13/08/22 | A | 0-2 |
KAMAZ| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-0 |
Volga Ulyanovsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |