This match between KäPa and EIF in the Finland: Ykköisliiga is finely balanced, with EIF coming off a win and KäPa struggling with three straight defeats. KäPa has a 38% chance of winning at home, EIF has a 36% chance of winning away, and the draw is 26% likely. The model picks the home win as the most likely result. An average of 3.1 goals are expected, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 11.8%. KäPa scores an average of 2 goals at home and concedes 1.83, while EIF scores 1.12 goals away and concedes 0.88. The model suggests 'Over 1.5' as its selection, with an 83% probability. KäPa has a 38% chance of winning, EIF has a 36% chance of winning, and the draw is 26% likely. The model also suggests 'Home win' with 38% probability, 'Draw' with 26% probability, and 'Away win' with 36% probability.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, EIF have pulled off a 0-1 away win, extending their run of victories to three games. The win marks a significant upset, as KäPa had been expected to come out on top, with the model's selection of a home win carrying a pre-match probability of 38%. However, the model's call was wrong, as EIF's away form, particularly their recent 1-0 win over KäPa, proved to be a decisive factor. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals, which had an 83% probability, was also incorrect, as the actual score was a low-scoring 0-1.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
KäPa win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.70
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.88
Dafabet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.77
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.41
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.57
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
EIF win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.27
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
2.35
Dafabet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KäPa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.13
1.71
2.29
1.56
2.00
vs Stronger (20)
2.00
1.95
2.33
1.78
1.73
2.09
vs Similar (10)
0.90
2.50
0.60
3.20
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (EIF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
EIF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.67
1.47
1.13
1.47
vs Stronger (20)
1.20
1.80
1.50
1.90
0.90
1.70
vs Similar (10)
1.80
0.80
2.00
0.60
1.60
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.0%
@ 1.18+4.7%
Under 1.5
17.0%
@ 4.24-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.52
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.4%
@ 1.61+3.1%
Under 2.5
39.6%
@ 2.17-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
BetVictor
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Under
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.1%
@ 2.50+1.3%
Under 3.5
61.9%
@ 1.46-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.70
BetVictor
2.63
Pinnacle
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.5%
@ 1.51+2.7%
No
36.5%
@ 2.35-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Betfair
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
No
Unibet
2.43
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 6.30+5.0%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.87+3.6%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.11+3.0%
2-2
6.5%@ 10.48+2.4%
1-0
5.9%@ 10.08+1.6%
0-1 ✓
5.7%@ 9.22+1.0%
2-0
5.5%@ 13.86+2.4%
0-0
5.5%@ 13.00+2.2%
KäPa goals ↓
EIF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.7%
5.2%
2.7%
1.0%
1
5.9%
12%
8.3%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.5%
6.5%
3.4%
1.3%
3
2.9%
4.5%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KäPa goals (down), columns = EIF goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
KäPa is 1.03 points worse than EIF in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
KäPa is 0.03 goals better than EIF in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
KäPa is 1.12 goals worse than EIF in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KäPa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.64
0.79
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (20)
0.70
0.70
0.89
0.33
0.55
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.20
0.20
1.60
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (EIF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
EIF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.80
0.70
0.40
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.10
1.20
0.20
0.60
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KäPa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.27
1.07
1.50
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (20)
1.30
1.25
1.44
1.44
1.18
1.09
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.30
0.40
1.60
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (EIF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
EIF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.93
0.87
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
1.20
1.00
1.10
0.20
1.30
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.70
0.80
0.40
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.0%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
+4.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
MP (19)
€0m
KLU (17)
€0m
KäPa and EIF have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOO (10)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
EIF (9)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
MP (10)
€0m
KLU (8)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
KäPa and EIF have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PK- (7)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
MP (2)
€0m
KLU (3)
€0m
KäPa and EIF have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
JIP (10)
€0m
EIF (7)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
MP (7)
€0m
KLU (6)
€0m
KäPa and EIF have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Haka
PK-35
JIPPO
Kooteepee
Klubi-04
JäPS
SJK Akatemia
MP