KäPa’s recent five-game slump, losing all matches and falling 1-3 to JIPPO, contrasts sharply with Haka’s five-game winning streak, beating SJK Akatemia 2-0. The model therefore rates Haka as the clear favourite, assigning a 73% chance of victory. This preference is reinforced by the venue weakness: KäPa’s home form against stronger opponents shows 2.2 goals scored and 1.9 conceded, while Haka’s away performance remains strong. The predicted outcome is an away win, with the most likely scoreline 0-2, a 9.4% probability. The expected total goals is 3.7, with a 21% chance that the match will finish with exactly three goals. KäPa’s home scoring and conceding figures versus a stronger side, and Haka’s away scoring and conceding against this tier, underline the imbalance. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 7.5 (96.7%), Away +2 handicap (96.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (93.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.7%), Under 6.5 (92.2%), Draw or Away (89.8%), and Away +1 handicap (89.8%). The model gives KäPa a 10% win chance, a 16% draw, and Haka a 73% win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
KäPa win
12.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haka win
68.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KäPa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.83
1.71
2.00
1.31
1.69
vs Stronger (21)
1.86
1.86
2.20
1.90
1.55
1.82
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.78
0.50
2.25
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Haka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.60
1.50
1.58
1.89
1.61
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.80
1.00
1.50
2.33
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.62
1.25
1.75
1.77
1.54
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.25
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.3%
Under 2.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.0%
Under 3.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%
0-2
9.0%
1-1
8.1%
1-3
7.9%
0-3
7.6%
0-1
6.4%
1-4
5.0%
2-2
4.9%
KäPa goals ↓
Haka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
6.4%
9.0%
7.6%
4.8%
1
2.2%
8.1%
9.4%
7.9%
5.0%
2
1.5%
3.9%
4.9%
4.1%
2.6%
3
0.5%
1.3%
1.7%
1.4%
0.9%
4
0.1%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KäPa goals (down), columns = Haka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
KäPa is 2.15 points worse than Haka in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 2.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
KäPa is 1.72 goals worse than Haka in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
KäPa is 1.00 goals worse than Haka in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KäPa or Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied -
13%
18%
69%
covers KäPa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KäPa or Haka
81.7%
Avg Implied -
13%
18%
69%
covers KäPa + Haka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Haka
87.2%
Avg Implied -
13%
18%
69%
covers Draw + Haka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KäPa over/under 0.5
Over
64.8%
Under
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 0.5
Over
92.1%
Under
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 1.5
Over
71.9%
Under
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 2.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 3.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to KäPa, so a minus line means KäPa give that many goals of a start and Haka receive them. At -1, KäPa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KäPa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KäPa)
KäPa -2
1.3%
Draw -2
3.4%
Haka +2
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (KäPa)
KäPa -1
4.7%
Draw -1
8.2%
Haka +1
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (KäPa)
KäPa +1
31.1%
Draw +1
20.9%
Haka -1
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (KäPa)
KäPa +2
52.0%
Draw +2
20.0%
Haka -2
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KäPa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.64
0.50
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (21)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.30
0.45
0.91
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.89
0.25
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Haka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.75
0.50
0.78
0.78
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.57
0.62
0.50
0.77
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KäPa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.13
1.07
1.50
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (21)
1.24
1.24
1.40
1.60
1.09
0.91
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.89
0.25
1.25
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Haka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.93
0.75
1.08
1.11
0.83
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
0.00
1.00
1.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.86
1.05
0.62
1.25
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Haka · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kalle Multanen20%
Simon Lindholm18%
Jordan Iain Houston12%
Jean-Pierre Da Sylva11%
Abraham Okyere11%
James Akintunde10%
Eetu Mömmö10%
Elías Romero0%
Juan Lescano0%
Mikael Almén0%
Arlind Sejdiu0%
Riku Selander0%
Niklas Friberg0%
Anton Lepola0%
Lucas Falcao0%
Djair Parfitt-Williams0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
Liam Hughes0%
Oskari Sallinen0%
Roni Hudd0%
Michael Boamah0%
Nikolas Talo0%
Valentin Purosalo0%
Danila Bulgakov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Elías Romero67%
Riku Selander43%
Lucas Falcao40%
Simon Lindholm36%
Jordan Iain Houston25%
Niklas Friberg22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
Eetu Mömmö20%
Mikael Almén17%
Abraham Okyere11%
Arlind Sejdiu10%
Oskari Sallinen9%
James Akintunde0%
Juan Lescano0%
Anton Lepola0%
Kalle Multanen0%
Jean-Pierre Da Sylva0%
Djair Parfitt-Williams0%
Liam Hughes0%
Roni Hudd0%
Michael Boamah0%
Nikolas Talo0%
Valentin Purosalo0%
Danila Bulgakov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eetu Mömmö30%
Michael Boamah20%
Arlind Sejdiu10%
James Akintunde0%
Elías Romero0%
Juan Lescano0%
Mikael Almén0%
Riku Selander0%
Niklas Friberg0%
Anton Lepola0%
Simon Lindholm0%
Kalle Multanen0%
Jean-Pierre Da Sylva0%
Lucas Falcao0%
Djair Parfitt-Williams0%
Jordan Iain Houston0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
Liam Hughes0%
Oskari Sallinen0%
Roni Hudd0%
Abraham Okyere0%
Nikolas Talo0%
Valentin Purosalo0%
Danila Bulgakov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jean-Pierre Da Sylva22%
Kalle Multanen20%
Lucas Falcao20%
Abraham Okyere11%
James Akintunde0%
Elías Romero0%
Juan Lescano0%
Mikael Almén0%
Arlind Sejdiu0%
Riku Selander0%
Niklas Friberg0%
Anton Lepola0%
Simon Lindholm0%
Djair Parfitt-Williams0%
Jordan Iain Houston0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
Liam Hughes0%
Eetu Mömmö0%
Oskari Sallinen0%
Roni Hudd0%
Michael Boamah0%
Nikolas Talo0%
Valentin Purosalo0%
Danila Bulgakov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
MP (19)
€0m
KLU (17)
€0m
KäPa and Haka have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOO (10)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
EIF (9)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
MP (10)
€0m
KLU (8)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
KäPa and Haka have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PK- (7)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
MP (2)
€0m
KLU (3)
€0m
KäPa and Haka have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
JIP (10)
€0m
EIF (7)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
MP (7)
€0m
KLU (6)
€0m
KäPa and Haka have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PK-35
JIPPO
Kooteepee
Klubi-04
EIF
JäPS
SJK Akatemia
MP