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KäPa vs Klubi-04 Result & Analysis

Date: 21/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
KäPa
KäPa
Vs
33%
23%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Klubi-04
Klubi-04
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

KäPa’s recent five matches have yielded no victories, a streak of losses that leaves their home form fragile, while Klubi-04, fresh from a win, shows a strong away attack. The model projects an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 43% chance of Klubi-04 triumphing, 33% for KäPa, and 23% for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 3.7, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 21% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.5% chance. KäPa averages 0.75 goals scored and 3.5 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Klubi-04 averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.27 conceded on the road. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 88.8%, BTTS Yes at 71.0%, and Over 2.5 goals at 70.7%. All figures are expressed as percentages, and every selection is listed with its probability.

Results analysis

After a tough run of five losses, K\u00e4Pa’s home form remained bleak, while Klubi-04, fresh from a win, carried a more positive away rhythm. The final score was 0-2, confirming the model’s pick of an away win with a 43% probability, and the prediction proved correct. The model also selected Over 1.5 goals (88.8%) which hit, but BTTS Yes (71.0%) and Over 2.5 (70.7%) missed. The match produced only two goals, falling short of the most likely total of three and the expected 3.7. Overall, the model’s favourite was right, yet several of its other selections failed to materialise.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

KäPa win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Klubi-04 win✓ Hit
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KäPaKäPa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L12L12L30W42W32W31W11D13L22DA·EIF26/09A·JIP04/10H·SAL18/10A·OLS23/10H·OLS26/10A·PKK15/04A·VJS28/04H·MYP13/05A·PK-10/07H·SJK17/07
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.772.231.932.211.622.25
vs Stronger (22)2.052.092.401.701.752.42
vs Similar (8)1.002.620.753.501.251.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Klubi-04) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Klubi-04Klubi-04

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D23L12L14L10W21W12L02L22DH·KÄP23/08A·LAH28/08H·TUR14/09A·PK-20/09H·SJK24/09H·SAL27/09H·JÄP04/10A·EIF18/10H·JIP11/07H·HAK17/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.632.001.822.231.38
vs Stronger (6)3.332.333.252.503.502.00
vs Similar (24)1.791.461.621.622.001.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.7%
Under 2.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.6%
Under 3.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
71.0%
No
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
7.2%
1-3
5.4%
0-2 ✓
4.9%
2-3
4.6%
0-1
4.2%
KäPa goals ↓
Klubi-04 goals →
01234
03.4%4.2%4.9%3.2%1.6%
13.6%9.5%8.4%5.4%2.7%
23.8%7.3%7.2%4.6%2.3%
32.1%4.2%4.1%2.6%1.3%
40.9%1.8%1.7%1.1%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KäPa goals (down), columns = Klubi-04 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Haka
2.71
Kooteepee
2.17
PK-35
2.00
JIPPO
1.86
JäPS
1.50
EIF
1.43
Klubi-04
1.00
SJK Akatemia
0.86
MP
0.71
KäPa
0.12
KäPa is 0.88 points worse than Klubi-04 in terms of average points per game (0.12 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Haka
2.71
PK-35
1.86
Kooteepee
1.50
JIPPO
1.43
MP
1.43
Klubi-04
1.12
KäPa
0.88
EIF
0.86
JäPS
0.83
SJK Akatemia
0.71
KäPa is 0.25 goals worse than Klubi-04 in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.12).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
EIF
0.71
Haka
0.86
Kooteepee
1.00
JIPPO
1.00
JäPS
1.00
PK-35
1.00
SJK Akatemia
1.43
Klubi-04
1.62
MP
2.14
KäPa
2.25
KäPa is 0.62 goals worse than Klubi-04 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KäPaKäPa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L12L11D10W20W10W10W01L02L00DA·EIF26/09A·JIP04/10H·SAL18/10A·OLS23/10H·OLS26/10A·PKK15/04A·VJS28/04H·MYP13/05A·PK-10/07H·SJK17/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.830.640.710.560.94
vs Stronger (22)0.640.770.800.400.501.08
vs Similar (8)0.501.000.251.500.750.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Klubi-04) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Klubi-04Klubi-04

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W01L12L00D10W01L02L21WH·KÄP23/08A·LAH28/08H·TUR14/09A·PK-20/09H·SJK24/09H·SAL27/09H·JÄP04/10A·EIF18/10H·JIP11/07H·HAK17/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.800.880.820.850.77
vs Stronger (6)1.501.001.500.751.501.50
vs Similar (24)0.710.750.690.850.730.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klubi-04 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klubi-04 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klubi-04 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KäPaKäPa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L20W22D22D21W10W11D22DA·EIF26/09A·JIP04/10H·SAL18/10A·OLS23/10H·OLS26/10A·PKK15/04A·VJS28/04H·MYP13/05A·PK-10/07H·SJK17/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.401.291.501.061.31
vs Stronger (22)1.411.321.601.301.251.33
vs Similar (8)0.501.620.502.000.501.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Klubi-04) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Klubi-04Klubi-04

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W13L11D02L10W11D11D00D01LH·KÄP23/08A·LAH28/08H·TUR14/09A·PK-20/09H·SJK24/09H·SAL27/09H·JÄP04/10A·EIF18/10H·JIP11/07H·HAK17/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.831.121.001.380.62
vs Stronger (6)1.831.331.751.752.000.50
vs Similar (24)1.080.710.920.771.270.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klubi-04 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klubi-04 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klubi-04 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.8%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes71.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.570.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SA (28)
€4m
SA (30)
€4m
HAK (24)
€1m
KOO (24)
€1m
JIP (25)
€1m
PK- (22)
€1m
EIF (21)
€1m
JÄP (27)
€1m
KÄP (30)
€1m
MP (30)
€0m
KLU (26)
€0m
KäPa and Klubi-04 have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SA (0)
€0m
SA (0)
€0m
EIF (0)
€0m
HAK (0)
€0m
JÄP (0)
€0m
JIP (0)
€0m
KÄP (0)
€0m
KLU (0)
€0m
KOO (0)
€0m
MP (0)
€0m
PK- (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SA (0)
€0m
SA (0)
€0m
EIF (0)
€0m
HAK (0)
€0m
JÄP (0)
€0m
JIP (0)
€0m
KÄP (0)
€0m
KLU (0)
€0m
KOO (0)
€0m
MP (0)
€0m
PK- (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SA (0)
€0m
SA (0)
€0m
EIF (0)
€0m
HAK (0)
€0m
JÄP (0)
€0m
JIP (0)
€0m
KÄP (0)
€0m
KLU (0)
€0m
KOO (0)
€0m
MP (0)
€0m
PK- (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
KÄP wins
1
Draws
1
KLU wins

Head-to-head

KäPa vs Klubi-04 · H/A from KÄP
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25AKlubi-04 Vs KÄP0-1
28/07/25AKlubi-04 Vs KÄP1-1
01/06/25HKÄP Vs Klubi-040-5

KäPaKäPa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/07/26HKÄP Vs SJK Akatemia2-2
10/07/26APK-35 Vs KÄP3-1
13/05/26HKÄP Vs MyPa1-1
28/04/26AVJS II Vs KÄP1-3
15/04/26APKKU Vs KÄP2-3
26/10/25HKÄP Vs OLS4-2
23/10/25AOLS Vs KÄP0-3
18/10/25HKÄP Vs SalPa1-2
04/10/25AJIPPO Vs KÄP2-1
26/09/25AEIF Vs KÄP4-1

Klubi-04Klubi-04

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/07/26HKLU Vs Haka2-2
11/07/26HKLU Vs JIPPO0-2
18/10/25AEIF Vs KLU2-1
04/10/25HKLU Vs JäPS2-1
27/09/25HKLU Vs SalPa1-0
24/09/25HKLU Vs SJK Akatemia1-4
20/09/25APK-35 Vs KLU2-1
14/09/25HKLU Vs Turku PS2-3
28/08/25ALahti Vs KLU2-2
23/08/25HKLU Vs KäPa0-1

📊 15. Overall Statistics

KäPa
KäPa
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD1.02
HomeWLWDD1.22
AwayLWWWL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%30%22%
AVG goals4.204.094.30
Over 1.5 %96%100%93%
Over 2.5 %78%78%78%
Over 3.5 %64%61%67%
Scored1.761.781.74
Conceded2.442.302.56
BTTS78%83%74%
Clean Sheet8%4%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Klubi-04
Klubi-04
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD1.53
HomeLWWLD1.37
AwayWWDLL1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%37%53%
AVG goals4.034.054.00
Over 1.5 %91%89%93%
Over 2.5 %71%63%80%
Over 3.5 %50%58%40%
Scored2.322.002.73
Conceded1.712.051.27
BTTS65%74%53%
Clean Sheet21%5%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1HakaHaka719
86%
2.7
196+13
3.6
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.70.9
-
2PK-35PK-35714
57%
2.0
137+6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.0
-
3JIPPOJIPPO713
57%
1.9
107+3
2.4
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.0
-
4KooteepeeKooteepee613
67%
2.2
96+3
2.5
50%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.0
-
5EIFEIF710
43%
1.4
65+1
1.6
43%
14%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.90.7
-
6JäPSJäPS69
50%
1.5
56-1
1.8
50%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.0
-
7Klubi-04Klubi-0488
25%
1.0
913-4
2.8
88%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
8SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia76
14%
0.9
510-5
2.1
71%
43%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0000.71.4
-
9MPMP75
14%
0.7
1015-5
3.6
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
10KäPaKäPa81
0%
0.1
718-11
3.1
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.2
-
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →

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