KäPa’s recent draw streak and MP’s four-game losing run set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.3 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.9% chance. Home victory is the favourite, with a 40% chance, a draw 25%, and an away win 35%. KäPa averages 0.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded at home against similar opposition, while MP concedes 3.0 and scores 2.0 on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Under 6.5 (94.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.2%), Under 5.5 (87.8%), Over 1.5 (85.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (82.3%), and Home +2 handicap (82.3%). These picks reflect the expected flow of the match, with both sides likely to find the net while the total stays comfortably below 7.5.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
KäPa win
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MP win
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KäPa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.83
1.71
2.00
1.31
1.69
vs Stronger (21)
1.86
1.86
2.20
1.90
1.55
1.82
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.78
0.50
2.25
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.03
1.08
2.33
1.72
1.83
vs Stronger (26)
1.46
1.88
1.00
2.11
1.71
1.76
vs Similar (4)
1.50
3.00
1.33
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.9%
Under 2.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.9%
Under 3.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.3%
1-0
5.1%
3-1
4.9%
0-1
4.7%
KäPa goals ↓
MP goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.7%
4.6%
2.5%
1.0%
1
5.1%
11%
7.9%
4.3%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.5%
6.9%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.1%
4.9%
4.0%
2.1%
0.9%
4
1.3%
2.1%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KäPa goals (down), columns = MP goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
KäPa is 0.40 points worse than MP in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
KäPa is 0.47 goals worse than MP in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
KäPa is 0.25 goals better than MP in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KäPa or Draw
65.0%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers KäPa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KäPa or MP
75.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers KäPa + MP
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or MP
59.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers Draw + MP
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KäPa over/under 0.5
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 3.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 0.5
Over
80.0%
Under
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to KäPa, so a minus line means KäPa give that many goals of a start and MP receive them. At -1, KäPa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KäPa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KäPa)
KäPa -2
9.1%
Draw -2
12.3%
MP +2
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (KäPa)
KäPa -1
21.4%
Draw -1
18.7%
MP +1
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (KäPa)
KäPa +1
65.0%
Draw +1
17.3%
MP -1
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (KäPa)
KäPa +2
82.3%
Draw +2
10.6%
MP -2
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KäPa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.64
0.50
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (21)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.30
0.45
0.91
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.89
0.25
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.07
0.75
1.33
0.72
0.89
vs Stronger (26)
0.65
1.00
0.67
1.11
0.65
0.94
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KäPa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.13
1.07
1.50
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (21)
1.24
1.24
1.40
1.60
1.09
0.91
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.89
0.25
1.25
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.94
vs Stronger (26)
0.81
0.88
0.33
1.00
1.06
0.82
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.50
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
MP (19)
€0m
KLU (17)
€0m
KäPa and MP have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOO (10)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
EIF (9)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
MP (10)
€0m
KLU (8)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
KäPa and MP have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PK- (7)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
MP (2)
€0m
KLU (3)
€0m
KäPa and MP have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
JIP (10)
€0m
EIF (7)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
MP (7)
€0m
KLU (6)
€0m
KäPa and MP have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Haka
PK-35
JIPPO
Kooteepee
Klubi-04
EIF
JäPS
SJK Akatemia