The model picks an away win for PK-35, a result that the data supports with a 61% chance. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the most likely total is 2, with a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.4% chance, and that is the only scoreline to mention. K äPa, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.9 conceded, while PK-35, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 scored and only 0.5 conceded. The home win probability is 16%, a draw 22%, and an away win 61%. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Under 6.5 at 96.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5%, Away +2 handicap at 94.0%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 93.3%. K äPa are coming off a draw, while PK-35 enter on a two-game winning run.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
KäPa win
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PK-35 win
61.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KäPa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.83
1.71
2.00
1.31
1.69
vs Stronger (21)
1.86
1.86
2.20
1.90
1.55
1.82
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.78
0.50
2.25
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (PK-35) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PK-35
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.10
1.33
1.27
2.40
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
3.60
1.20
0.00
2.00
4.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.14
1.33
1.25
1.56
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.6%
Under 3.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.9%
0-1
8.5%
1-3
6.9%
0-3
6.9%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
5.0%
KäPa goals ↓
PK-35 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
8.5%
9.9%
6.9%
3.6%
1
3.6%
10%
9.9%
6.9%
3.6%
2
2.3%
4.8%
5.0%
3.5%
1.8%
3
0.8%
1.6%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KäPa goals (down), columns = PK-35 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
KäPa is 1.90 points worse than PK-35 in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
KäPa is 1.22 goals worse than PK-35 in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
KäPa is 1.12 goals worse than PK-35 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KäPa or Draw
38.6%
Avg Implied -
16%
22%
61%
covers KäPa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KäPa or PK-35
77.8%
Avg Implied -
16%
22%
61%
covers KäPa + PK-35
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or PK-35
83.6%
Avg Implied -
16%
22%
61%
covers Draw + PK-35
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KäPa over/under 0.5
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 0.5
Over
87.7%
Under
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 1.5
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 2.5
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 3.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to KäPa, so a minus line means KäPa give that many goals of a start and PK-35 receive them. At -1, KäPa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KäPa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KäPa)
KäPa -2
1.6%
Draw -2
4.4%
PK-35 +2
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (KäPa)
KäPa -1
6.0%
Draw -1
10.4%
PK-35 +1
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (KäPa)
KäPa +1
38.6%
Draw +1
22.6%
PK-35 -1
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (KäPa)
KäPa +2
61.2%
Draw +2
18.9%
PK-35 -2
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KäPa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.64
0.50
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (21)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.30
0.45
0.91
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.89
0.25
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (PK-35) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PK-35
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
0.53
0.27
1.27
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
0.60
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.43
0.50
0.33
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.1%
Under 0.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.3%
Under 1.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
Under 2.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KäPa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.13
1.07
1.50
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (21)
1.24
1.24
1.40
1.60
1.09
0.91
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.89
0.25
1.25
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (PK-35) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PK-35
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
0.80
1.00
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
0.60
0.00
2.00
2.50
0.25
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.71
0.83
0.92
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.7%
Under 0.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.4%
Under 1.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.6%
Under 2.5
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KäPa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
MP (19)
€0m
KLU (17)
€0m
KäPa and PK-35 have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOO (10)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
EIF (9)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
MP (10)
€0m
KLU (8)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
KäPa and PK-35 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PK- (7)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
MP (2)
€0m
KLU (3)
€0m
KäPa and PK-35 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
JIP (10)
€0m
EIF (7)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
MP (7)
€0m
KLU (6)
€0m
KäPa and PK-35 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Haka
JIPPO
Kooteepee
Klubi-04
EIF
JäPS
SJK Akatemia
MP