The encounter between Karcag SE and Kozarmisleny FC feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win at 41 %. A draw sits at 27 % and an away triumph at 33 %. The expected total goals hover around three, yet the most probable total is two, a 24 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.4 % probability.
Karcag SE, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Kozarmisleny FC, on the road against a comparable opponent, nets 1.27 and concedes 1.47. Karcag’s recent five-match run of WDDDD shows resilience, while Kozarmisleny’s last five LLLLL highlights a struggle.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Under 6.5 (96.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.5 %), Under 5.5 (92.0 %), Home +2 handicap (84.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (83.6 %), and Under 4.5 (82.2 %). Each is presented with its precise probability, reflecting the fine balance of this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Karcag SE win
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC win
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Karcag SE
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.31
1.56
1.00
1.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.22
1.44
1.27
1.60
1.17
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kozarmisleny FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kozarmisleny FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.47
1.43
0.93
1.12
1.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
2.38
1.00
0.67
0.20
3.40
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.14
1.55
1.00
1.55
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Karcag SE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.5%
Karcag SE goals ↓
Kozarmisleny FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.5%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.5%
12%
7.2%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.3%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.1%
5.3%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karcag SE goals (down), columns = Kozarmisleny FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Soroksar
2.67
Ajka
2.20
Kecskeméti TE
2.17
Kazincbarcikai
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.80
Karcag SE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
1.67
Szentlőrinc SE
1.40
Fehérvár FC
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Diosgyori VTK
0.80
BVSC
0.80
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.50
Csakvar
0.50
Kozarmisleny FC
0.00
Karcag SE is 1.67 points better than Kozarmisleny FC in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Soroksar
2.83
Karcag SE
2.00
Kecskeméti TE
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Gyirmot SE
1.83
Kazincbarcikai
1.67
Ajka
1.60
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.40
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Diosgyori VTK
1.00
Csakvar
1.00
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.83
Szeged 2011
0.80
BVSC
0.60
Kozarmisleny FC
0.50
Karcag SE is 1.50 goals better than Kozarmisleny FC in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajka
0.60
Soroksar
0.67
Kazincbarcikai
0.83
Kecskeméti TE
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.00
Tiszakecske FC
1.17
BVSC
1.20
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Karcag SE
1.33
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
2.00
Kozarmisleny FC
2.50
Diosgyori VTK
2.60
Csakvar
2.67
Karcag SE is 1.17 goals better than Kozarmisleny FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Karcag SE or Draw
71.7%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
28%
covers Karcag SE + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE or Kozarmisleny FC
73.9%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
28%
covers Karcag SE + Kozarmisleny FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kozarmisleny FC
54.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
28%
covers Draw + Kozarmisleny FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Karcag SE over/under 0.5
Over
81.5%
Under
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 1.5
Over
50.3%
Under
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 2.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 0.5
Over
72.5%
Under
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 1.5
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Karcag SE, so a minus line means Karcag SE give that many goals of a start and Kozarmisleny FC receive them. At -1, Karcag SE must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Karcag SE win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Karcag SE)
Karcag SE -2
10.5%
Draw -2
14.1%
Kozarmisleny FC +2
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Karcag SE)
Karcag SE -1
24.7%
Draw -1
20.9%
Kozarmisleny FC +1
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Karcag SE)
Karcag SE +1
71.7%
Draw +1
15.8%
Kozarmisleny FC -1
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Karcag SE)
Karcag SE +2
87.4%
Draw +2
8.3%
Kozarmisleny FC -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Karcag SE
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.57
0.31
0.62
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.37
0.59
0.33
0.67
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Kozarmisleny FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kozarmisleny FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.64
0.36
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.41
0.73
0.45
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Karcag SE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karcag SE over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Karcag SE
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
1.00
0.94
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.85
0.93
0.93
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kozarmisleny FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kozarmisleny FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.79
0.57
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.38
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.80
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.73
0.82
0.55
1.09
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Karcag SE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karcag SE over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (22)
€3m
DV (18)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
TF (18)
€1m
SS (19)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
KS (16)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Karcag SE and Kozarmisleny FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (9)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
DV (5)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
TF (8)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
KS (7)
€0m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Karcag SE and Kozarmisleny FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (4)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
KT (2)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
KS (1)
€0m
Karcag SE and Kozarmisleny FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (9)
€1m
KT (11)
€1m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SS (8)
€0m
SOR (6)
€0m
KS (8)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Karcag SE and Kozarmisleny FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Hungary: NB II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Soroksar
Kecskeméti TE
Tiszakecske FC
Kazincbarcikai
Ajka
Gyirmot SE
Mezokovesd-zsory
Szentlőrinc SE
Fehérvár FC
Szeged 2011
BVSC
Diosgyori VTK
Nagykanizsai ULE
Csakvar