Pythia gives Kasımpaşa a 12% win probability against Galatasaray in the Turkey: Süper Lig on 2026-05-17, with 20% for the draw and 68% for Galatasaray. The model estimates around 3.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (23%) and 0-2 the most likely scoreline (11.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 21.5 fouls (88%), Over 2.5 cards (86%), Over 1.5 (82%).
Results analysis
Kasımpaşa finished 1-0 against Galatasaray (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 12% home win, 20% draw and 68% away win. Picks that landed: Under 11.5 corners (80%), Under 10.5 corners (70%). Missed: Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 21.5 fouls (88%), Over 2.5 cards (86%), Over 1.5 (82%), Over 23.5 fouls (78%), Over 3.5 cards (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kasımpaşa win✓ Hit
11.8%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.67
Edge
-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.52
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray win✗ Miss
68.0%
Avg Implied 48.9% · @ 1.88
Edge
+19.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kasımpaşa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.43
0.86
1.07
1.06
1.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.67
0.80
1.20
0.43
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.22
1.28
0.89
1.00
1.56
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galatasaray
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.27
2.67
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.30
2.00
0.80
0.80
1.80
vs Weaker (19)
2.47
1.21
3.00
1.00
1.89
1.44
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kasımpaşa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.71+4.6%
Under 2.5
41.2%
@ 2.03-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.6%
0-1
9.6%
0-3
8.6%
1-3
7.2%
0-0
5.6%
0-4
4.8%
Kasımpaşa goals ↓
Galatasaray goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
9.6%
12%
8.6%
4.8%
1
3.1%
9.6%
9.7%
7.2%
4.0%
2
1.6%
3.6%
4.0%
3.0%
1.7%
3
0.5%
1.0%
1.1%
0.8%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kasımpaşa goals (down), columns = Galatasaray goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.94
Kayserispor
0.88
Fatih Karagümrük
0.88
Kasımpaşa is 1.24 points worse than Galatasaray in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 2.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Rizespor
1.35
Samsunspor
1.35
Konyaspor
1.26
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Fatih Karagümrük
0.91
Kayserispor
0.79
Kocaelispor
0.76
Kasımpaşa is 1.29 goals worse than Galatasaray in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 2.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Fatih Karagümrük
1.59
Antalyaspor
1.62
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Kayserispor
1.82
Kasımpaşa is 0.56 goals worse than Galatasaray in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kayserispor
47%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
Antalyaspor
45%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Kasımpaşa is 17.6 percentage points worse than Galatasaray in terms of average possession (44% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kasımpaşa
For 3.1 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 14.8 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Galatasaray
For 5.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 13.7 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kasımpaşa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.8
8.4
5.2
5.0
5.4
27.8
28.6
27.0
vs Stronger (20)
8.8
9.8
7.8
5.5
5.6
5.3
27.6
29.8
25.5
vs Similar (28)
9.0
9.3
8.7
5.0
4.4
5.6
28.4
28.4
28.4
vs Weaker (2)
12.5
16.0
9.0
5.5
7.0
4.0
22.5
21.0
24.0
% over line
38%
44%
32%
72%
76%
68%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
62%
56%
68%
28%
24%
32%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galatasaray
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.3
8.5
4.5
4.8
4.2
23.9
23.6
24.2
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
-
8.0
1.0
-
1.0
18.0
-
18.0
vs Similar (13)
10.1
10.4
9.7
6.5
7.4
5.5
26.7
25.9
27.7
vs Weaker (36)
8.5
8.8
8.2
3.9
3.8
3.9
23.0
22.7
23.3
% over line
48%
62%
33%
54%
58%
50%
72%
73%
71%
% under line
52%
38%
67%
46%
42%
50%
28%
27%
29%
This opponent (Kasımpaşa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.7
Kayserispor
10.0
Beşiktaş
9.9
Gaziantep FK
9.8
Samsunspor
9.8
Başakşehir
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Konyaspor
9.5
Rizespor
9.4
Trabzonspor
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.2
Göztepe
9.1
Kasımpaşa
9.1
Eyüpspor
9.1
Galatasaray
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.7
Kocaelispor
8.0
Alanyaspor
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
6.0
Fenerbahçe
5.9
Konyaspor
5.4
Kasımpaşa
5.2
Alanyaspor
5.1
Antalyaspor
5.1
Göztepe
5.1
Beşiktaş
5.0
Eyüpspor
4.9
Başakşehir
4.9
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.7
Rizespor
4.7
Kocaelispor
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.6
Kayserispor
4.6
Galatasaray
4.6
Samsunspor
4.6
Fatih Karagümrük
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.1
Alanyaspor
26.9
Kocaelispor
26.7
Göztepe
26.7
Başakşehir
26.7
Rizespor
26.2
Eyüpspor
25.8
Trabzonspor
25.7
Fenerbahçe
25.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Kayserispor
25.4
Samsunspor
25.3
Beşiktaş
25.3
Konyaspor
25.2
Galatasaray
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.4%
Under 9.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.6%
Under 3.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
88.2%
Under 21.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kasımpaşa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.36
0.50
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.83
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.86
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galatasaray
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.87
0.33
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
0.95
0.32
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kasımpaşa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kasımpaşa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kasımpaşa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kasımpaşa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kasımpaşa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.50
0.57
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.40
0.40
0.43
1.14
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.61
0.56
0.67
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galatasaray
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.80
0.60
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.80
1.20
0.20
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
0.89
2.10
0.80
0.89
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kasımpaşa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kasımpaşa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kasımpaşa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kasımpaşa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Turkey: Süper Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →