Kaspij Aktau 2 are set to dominate the match, with a 58 % chance of victory, 22 % for a draw and 20 % for an away win. The model favours a home win, and the expected total goals is 3.4, pointing to a high-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.8 % probability. In recent form Kaspij Aktau 2 have averaged three goals per game at home while conceding none against similar opposition, whereas Akademiya Ontustik, playing away, have scored 1.3 and conceded 1.8 against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8 %, Under 7.5 at 97.7 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.3 %, Under 6.5 at 94.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.2 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.2 %, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.4 %. These picks reflect the expectation of a low-scoring first half and a more open second half.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Kaspij Aktau 2, failed to deliver as the away side, Akademiya Ontustik, snatched a 1-2 victory. The model had predicted a home win with a 58% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away win. The model’s selection of a home win was incorrect. Among the suggested picks, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.8%, Under 7.5 hit at 97.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 94.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 91.9%, while Away under 1.5 HT goals missed at 92.2%. The game ended with the away side extending their two-game winning run.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2 win✗ Miss
57.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik win✓ Hit
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.50
3.67
0.67
0.00
2.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.75
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.63
2.20
1.93
1.60
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.92
1.58
2.42
1.92
1.42
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.9%
Under 2.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.0%
Under 3.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.6%
No
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
7.0%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.7%
1-2 ✓
5.5%
Kaspij Aktau 2 goals ↓
Akademiya Ontustik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.2%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
1
6.4%
9.8%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.9%
9.7%
6.0%
2.4%
0.8%
3
5.7%
7.0%
4.3%
1.8%
0.5%
4
3.1%
3.8%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspij Aktau 2 goals (down), columns = Akademiya Ontustik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.95 points worse than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 2.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.29 goals worse than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.32 goals worse than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Draw✗ Miss
79.8%
Avg Implied -
58%
22%
20%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Akademiya Ontustik✓ Hit
77.9%
Avg Implied -
58%
22%
20%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Akademiya Ontustik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik✓ Hit
42.3%
Avg Implied -
58%
22%
20%
covers Draw + Akademiya Ontustik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.5%
Under
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kaspij Aktau 2, so a minus line means Kaspij Aktau 2 give that many goals of a start and Akademiya Ontustik receive them. At -1, Kaspij Aktau 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kaspij Aktau 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.00
0.87
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.75
1.17
0.92
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.4%
Under 0.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.4%
Under 1.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaspij Aktau 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.17
2.33
0.67
0.00
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.93
1.20
1.07
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.83
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.1%
Under 0.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.0%
Under 1.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.6%
Under 2.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
KA2 wins
0
Draws
0
AO wins
Head-to-head
Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik · H/A from KA2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →