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Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Arys Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/09/2026
Time: 12:00
Kaspij Aktau 2
Kaspij Aktau 2
Vs
68%
20%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arys
Arys
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Kaspij Aktau 2 are the clear favourites, with the model rating a 68% chance of a home win and a 20% chance of a draw versus a 13% chance for Arys. The prediction model’s pick is a home victory, driven by Kaspij’s strong home scoring average of two goals per game and a modest one-goal concession rate against similar opponents, while Arys struggles away, averaging only 0.73 goals scored and conceding 2.55. The expected total goals hover at 3.2, with the most likely total being three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Kaspij, carrying a 10.5% probability. Recent form adds context: Kaspij return from a defeat, whereas Arys come off a win. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Home +2 handicap at 95.7%, Under 6.5 at 95.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 93.3%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.2%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kaspij Aktau 2 win
67.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arys win
12.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-606L30W61W01L21W00D12LA·SPO17/07H·EKI23/07H·AKT30/07A·SHA06/08H·YEL14/08A·JAI21/08H·AKA27/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.711.573.001.000.002.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.801.802.001.000.002.33
vs Weaker (2)4.001.004.001.00--
Clean sheet %29% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D04L04L14L02L30W00D11D01L31WA·KHA15/03H·AKT09/04H·TUR16/07A·SHA24/07A·AST31/07H·TOB07/08A·KHA15/08H·TAR20/08A·SPO27/08H·EKI03/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.401.291.860.752.88
vs Stronger (8)0.883.251.002.670.803.60
vs Similar (21)0.952.191.201.800.732.55
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.9%
Under 2.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.2%
1-0
8.2%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
7.5%
0-0
4.8%
4-0
4.7%
Kaspij Aktau 2 goals ↓
Arys goals →
01234
04.8%2.8%1.7%0.5%0.1%
18.2%9.2%3.9%1.2%0.3%
211%9.7%4.5%1.4%0.3%
38.1%7.5%3.5%1.1%0.2%
44.7%4.3%2.0%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspij Aktau 2 goals (down), columns = Arys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.43 points better than Arys in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.71 goals better than Arys in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.05 goals better than Arys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Draw
87.4%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
13%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Arys
80.4%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
13%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arys
32.2%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
13%
covers Draw + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5
Over
90.2%
Under
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 3.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Kaspij Aktau 2, so a minus line means Kaspij Aktau 2 give that many goals of a start and Arys receive them. At -1, Kaspij Aktau 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kaspij Aktau 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -2
25.4%
Draw -2
20.3%
Arys +2
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -1
45.7%
Draw -1
22.1%
Arys +1
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +1
87.4%
Draw +1
8.3%
Arys -1
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +2
95.7%
Draw +2
3.2%
Arys -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W20W00D00D00D02LA·SPO17/07H·EKI23/07H·AKT30/07A·SHA06/08H·YEL14/08A·JAI21/08H·AKA27/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.571.000.500.000.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.400.801.001.000.000.67
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %71% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L02L11D02L20W00D10W01L00DA·KHA15/03H·AKT09/04H·TUR16/07A·SHA24/07A·AST31/07H·TOB07/08A·KHA15/08H·TAR20/08A·SPO27/08H·EKI03/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.970.500.710.251.19
vs Stronger (8)0.121.500.331.330.001.60
vs Similar (21)0.380.810.400.600.361.00
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.1%
Under 0.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.5%
Under 1.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.2%
Under 2.5
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L10W41W01L21W00D10WA·SPO17/07H·EKI23/07H·AKT30/07A·SHA06/08H·YEL14/08A·JAI21/08H·AKA27/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.141.002.000.500.001.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.401.001.000.000.001.67
vs Weaker (2)3.001.003.001.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L02L03L00D10W00D01L00D31WA·KHA15/03H·AKT09/04H·TUR16/07A·SHA24/07A·AST31/07H·TOB07/08A·KHA15/08H·TAR20/08A·SPO27/08H·EKI03/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.430.791.140.501.69
vs Stronger (8)0.751.750.671.330.802.00
vs Similar (21)0.571.380.801.200.361.55
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.9%
Under 0.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.8%
Under 1.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.7%
Under 2.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.2%
Under
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.5%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals98.4%-------
Under 7.598.2%-------
Home +2 handicap95.7%-------
Under 6.595.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals93.3%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals93.2%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals92.2%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals90.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals90.2%-------
Under 5.589.0%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals88.7%-------
Home or Draw87.4%-------
Home +1 handicap87.4%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals86.8%-------
Over 1.584.2%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals83.5%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals81.9%-------
Home or Away80.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals79.6%-------
Under 4.577.3%-------
Away under 1.5 goals76.4%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals73.3%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals71.1%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals70.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
KA2 wins
0
Draws
0
ARY wins

Head-to-head

Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Arys · H/A from KA2
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/26HKA2 Vs Akademiya Ontustik1-2
21/08/26AJaiyq Vs KA20-0
14/08/26HKA2 Vs Yelimay Semey 22-1
06/08/26AShakhter Karagandy Vs KA21-0
30/07/26HKA2 Vs Aktobe Jas6-1
23/07/26HKA2 Vs Ekibastuz3-0
17/07/26ASport Academy Kairat Vs KA26-0

ArysArys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HARY Vs Ekibastuz3-1
27/08/26ASport Academy Kairat Vs ARY1-0
20/08/26HARY Vs Taraz1-1
15/08/26AKhan Tengri Vs ARY0-0
07/08/26HARY Vs Tobol 23-0
31/07/26AAstana II Vs ARY2-0
24/07/26AShakhter Karagandy Vs ARY4-1
16/07/26HARY Vs Turan Turkistan0-4
09/04/26HARY Vs Aktobe0-4
15/03/25AKhan Tengri Vs ARY1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kaspij Aktau 2
Kaspij Aktau 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.43
HomeWWWL2.25
AwayLLD0.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%75%0%
AVG goals3.294.002.33
Over 1.5 %71%100%33%
Over 2.5 %71%100%33%
Over 3.5 %29%25%33%
Scored1.713.000.00
Conceded1.571.002.33
BTTS43%75%0%
Clean Sheet29%25%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Arys
Arys
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLW0.80
HomeLLWDW1.00
AwayDLLDL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%24%16%
AVG goals3.283.003.56
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.101.201.00
Conceded2.181.802.56
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
3Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
4Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
8Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
9JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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