Kaspij Aktau 2 are the clear favourites, with the model rating a 68% chance of a home win and a 20% chance of a draw versus a 13% chance for Arys. The prediction model’s pick is a home victory, driven by Kaspij’s strong home scoring average of two goals per game and a modest one-goal concession rate against similar opponents, while Arys struggles away, averaging only 0.73 goals scored and conceding 2.55. The expected total goals hover at 3.2, with the most likely total being three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Kaspij, carrying a 10.5% probability. Recent form adds context: Kaspij return from a defeat, whereas Arys come off a win. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Home +2 handicap at 95.7%, Under 6.5 at 95.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 93.3%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.2%.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2 win
67.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arys win
12.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.71
1.57
3.00
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.80
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.40
1.29
1.86
0.75
2.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
3.25
1.00
2.67
0.80
3.60
vs Similar (21)
0.95
2.19
1.20
1.80
0.73
2.55
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.9%
Under 2.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.2%
1-0
8.2%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
7.5%
0-0
4.8%
4-0
4.7%
Kaspij Aktau 2 goals ↓
Arys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
2.8%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
8.2%
9.2%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
8.1%
7.5%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
4
4.7%
4.3%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspij Aktau 2 goals (down), columns = Arys goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.43 points better than Arys in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.71 goals better than Arys in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.05 goals better than Arys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Draw
87.4%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
13%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Arys
80.4%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
13%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arys
32.2%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
13%
covers Draw + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5
Over
90.2%
Under
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 3.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kaspij Aktau 2, so a minus line means Kaspij Aktau 2 give that many goals of a start and Arys receive them. At -1, Kaspij Aktau 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kaspij Aktau 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -2
25.4%
Draw -2
20.3%
Arys +2
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -1
45.7%
Draw -1
22.1%
Arys +1
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +1
87.4%
Draw +1
8.3%
Arys -1
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +2
95.7%
Draw +2
3.2%
Arys -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaspij Aktau 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.50
0.71
0.25
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.50
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.81
0.40
0.60
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.1%
Under 0.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.5%
Under 1.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.2%
Under 2.5
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaspij Aktau 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.43
0.79
1.14
0.50
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.75
0.67
1.33
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
1.38
0.80
1.20
0.36
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.9%
Under 0.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.8%
Under 1.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.7%
Under 2.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.2%
Under
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →