Kaspij Aktau 2 are the clear favourite, with the model rating a 76% chance of a home win, 15% for a draw and 9% for an Astana II victory. The 4.0 expected total goals and a 21% probability of six or more goals hint at a high-scoring affair, yet the most likely scoreline is 2-1 for the hosts, a 8.4% probability. Kaspij’s home form shows they average four goals scored and one conceded against weaker opposition, while Astana II, playing away against a stronger side, average only 0.33 goals scored and 3.33 conceded. The model’s selections reinforce the home advantage: an 97.9% chance of away under 3.5 goals, a 96.7% chance of a home +2 handicap, 95.0% for under 7.5 goals, 94.8% for home over 0.5 goals, 91.4% for away under 2.5 goals, 91.3% for over 1.5 goals, 90.5% for home or draw, and 90.5% for home +1 handicap. These picks reflect the hosts’ strong offensive output and the visitors’ defensive frailties.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2 win
75.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Astana II win
9.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.71
1.57
3.00
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.80
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.73
1.47
2.27
1.00
3.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.60
1.67
2.00
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.24
2.76
1.42
2.33
1.08
3.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.3%
Under 1.5
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
76.0%
Under 2.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.4%
3-1
8.3%
2-0
8.1%
3-0
8.0%
1-1
6.2%
4-1
6.1%
4-0
6.0%
1-0
4.9%
Kaspij Aktau 2 goals ↓
Astana II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
1.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
1
4.9%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
2
8.1%
8.4%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
8.0%
8.3%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
4
6.0%
6.1%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspij Aktau 2 goals (down), columns = Astana II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.30 points better than Astana II in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.59 goals better than Astana II in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.68 goals better than Astana II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 2.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Draw
90.6%
Avg Implied -
76%
15%
9%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Astana II
85.3%
Avg Implied -
76%
15%
9%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Astana II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Astana II
24.1%
Avg Implied -
76%
15%
9%
covers Draw + Astana II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5
Over
94.8%
Under
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 3.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5
Over
64.2%
Under
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kaspij Aktau 2, so a minus line means Kaspij Aktau 2 give that many goals of a start and Astana II receive them. At -1, Kaspij Aktau 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kaspij Aktau 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -2
36.9%
Draw -2
20.2%
Astana II +2
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -1
57.1%
Draw -1
18.8%
Astana II +1
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +1
90.6%
Draw +1
6.1%
Astana II -1
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +2
96.7%
Draw +2
2.4%
Astana II -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaspij Aktau 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
1.00
1.00
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.76
1.08
0.83
1.00
0.69
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaspij Aktau 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.70
0.47
1.27
0.40
2.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
1.68
0.58
1.33
0.38
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Ekibastuz
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2