Kaspij Aktau 2 are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 65% chance of a home win, 19% for a draw and 16% for Khan Tengri to triumph. The prediction favours a 2-1 victory for the hosts, a 9% probability scoreline that reflects the home side’s strong 2.0 goals-scoring average and only 1.0 conceded at home against similarly matched opposition. The expected total of 3.9 goals translates to an average of almost four goals, yet the most likely total is three, a 20% chance. Kaspij’s recent form, after a defeat, shows resilience, while Khan Tengri, fresh from a two-game winning streak, still struggles away, averaging 0.64 goals scored and conceding 2.45. The model’s selections include an 86.4% edge on Away under 2.5 goals, a 90.2% chance of Under 6.5, a 90.5% probability of Over 1.5, a 92.6% chance of Home over 0.5 goals, a 93.4% likelihood of Home +2 handicap, a 95.6% probability of Under 7.5, a 96.0% edge on Away under 3.5 goals, and an 83.9% chance of Home or Draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2 win
69.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri win
13.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.71
1.57
3.00
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.80
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
2.13
0.93
1.33
0.87
2.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
7.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.88
1.00
1.29
0.58
2.58
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
3.00
-
-
2.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.1%
Under 2.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.2%
Under 3.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.8%
3-1
8.0%
2-0
7.4%
1-1
7.1%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
5.5%
2-2
5.2%
1-0
4.8%
Kaspij Aktau 2 goals ↓
Khan Tengri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
1.7%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
1
4.8%
7.1%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
2
7.4%
8.8%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.8%
8.0%
4.8%
1.9%
0.6%
4
4.7%
5.5%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspij Aktau 2 goals (down), columns = Khan Tengri goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.55 points better than Khan Tengri in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.71 goals better than Khan Tengri in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.18 goals better than Khan Tengri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Draw
86.6%
Avg Implied -
69%
17%
13%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Khan Tengri
82.8%
Avg Implied -
69%
17%
13%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Khan Tengri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Khan Tengri
30.6%
Avg Implied -
69%
17%
13%
covers Draw + Khan Tengri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5
Over
93.5%
Under
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 3.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kaspij Aktau 2, so a minus line means Kaspij Aktau 2 give that many goals of a start and Khan Tengri receive them. At -1, Kaspij Aktau 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kaspij Aktau 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -2
30.1%
Draw -2
19.5%
Khan Tengri +2
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -1
49.6%
Draw -1
19.8%
Khan Tengri +1
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +1
86.6%
Draw +1
8.2%
Khan Tengri -1
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +2
94.8%
Draw +2
3.6%
Khan Tengri -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaspij Aktau 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.60
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.85
0.50
0.64
0.17
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaspij Aktau 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.27
0.47
0.73
0.47
1.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
1.04
0.50
0.64
0.42
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →