The model favours an away win, with Turan Turkistan expected to edge Kaspij Aktau 2. The overall shape of the match leans toward a moderately high-scoring encounter, averaging 3.1 goals, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.8% chance, making it the most likely exact outcome. Kaspij Aktau 2, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages two goals scored and one conceded. Turan Turkistan, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. The home win probability sits at 29%, the draw at 26%, and the away win at 45%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.9%), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.9%), and Under 5.5 (90.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2 win
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan win
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaspij Aktau 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.71
1.57
3.00
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.80
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.17
1.07
2.13
1.20
2.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
3.88
1.00
4.25
0.25
3.50
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.57
1.00
1.40
1.55
1.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
7.1%
2-1
7.1%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.7%
1-3
5.5%
Kaspij Aktau 2 goals ↓
Turan Turkistan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
7.0%
7.1%
4.2%
1.8%
1
5.0%
12%
9.4%
5.5%
2.4%
2
4.0%
7.1%
6.2%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.8%
3.1%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspij Aktau 2 goals (down), columns = Turan Turkistan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.86 points worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.57 goals worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.43 goals worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Draw
53.3%
Avg Implied -
28%
25%
47%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 or Turan Turkistan
74.5%
Avg Implied -
28%
25%
47%
covers Kaspij Aktau 2 + Turan Turkistan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Turan Turkistan
72.2%
Avg Implied -
28%
25%
47%
covers Draw + Turan Turkistan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kaspij Aktau 2, so a minus line means Kaspij Aktau 2 give that many goals of a start and Turan Turkistan receive them. At -1, Kaspij Aktau 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kaspij Aktau 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -2
4.3%
Draw -2
8.2%
Turan Turkistan +2
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 -1
12.4%
Draw -1
15.4%
Turan Turkistan +1
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +1
53.3%
Draw +1
20.8%
Turan Turkistan -1
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kaspij Aktau 2)
Kaspij Aktau 2 +2
74.1%
Draw +2
14.5%
Turan Turkistan -2
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaspij Aktau 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.88
0.50
1.75
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.40
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.3%
Under 0.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.1%
Under 1.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaspij Aktau 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.95
0.50
1.00
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.9%
Under 1.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.2%
Under 2.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Taraz
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2