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Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Yelimay Semey 2 Result & Analysis

Date: 14/08/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
Kaspij Aktau 2
Kaspij Aktau 2
Vs
61%
21%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Yelimay Semey 2
Yelimay Semey 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This Kazakhstan: 1. Division match between Kaspij Aktau 2 and Yelimay Semey 2 is shaping up to be an open and attacking encounter, with both teams averaging over a goal scored per game at home and away, respectively. Kaspij Aktau 2's recent form has been affected by a defeat, but they have a strong home record, scoring 3.0 goals on average while conceding none. Yelimay Semey 2, on the other hand, has been coming off a win, but their away form is less impressive, scoring 1.0 goal on average while conceding 1.0.

The model predicts a 61% chance of a home win, a 21% chance of a draw, and an 18% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.5, with the most likely score being 2-1, a 9.6% probability. The model's selection is the Over 1.5, which has an 86.9% probability. Kaspij Aktau 2's home win percentage is 61%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 18%. The model's selection, Over 1.5, has a 86.9% probability, while the Away win has a 18% probability.

Results analysis

The win extends Kaspij Aktau 2's run, coming off a win in their last outing. The final score was 2-1 in favour of the home team, which also landed the actual result. The model correctly identified Home win as its call, with a pre-match probability of 61%. The model's selection was correct, as it was the favourite going into the match. The model also suggested Over 1.5 as its selection, with a probability of 86.9%, and this selection hit. The model's call for Home win was the correct one, as it was the favourite going into the match, and it was the team that ultimately secured the win.

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Kaspij Aktau 2 win✓ Hit
61.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 win✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-606L30W61W01LA·SPO17/07H·EKI23/07H·AKT30/07A·SHA06/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.252.004.500.500.003.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.002.333.000.000.003.50
vs Weaker (1)6.001.006.001.00--
Clean sheet %25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L12L10WA·KHA16/07H·TAR24/07A·EKI30/07H·SPO06/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.750.500.501.001.00
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (3)0.671.000.001.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.2%
Under 2.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.6%
1-1
9.3%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
7.3%
1-0
6.3%
3-0
6.2%
2-2
5.7%
1-2
5.0%
Kaspij Aktau 2 goals ↓
Yelimay Semey 2 goals →
01234
04.0%2.9%2.2%0.9%0.3%
16.3%9.3%5.0%2.0%0.6%
28.1%9.6%5.7%2.3%0.7%
36.2%7.3%4.3%1.7%0.5%
43.5%4.2%2.5%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspij Aktau 2 goals (down), columns = Yelimay Semey 2 goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.57 points better than Yelimay Semey 2 in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.86).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.86 goals better than Yelimay Semey 2 in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 0.86).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Kaspij Aktau 2 is 0.29 goals better than Yelimay Semey 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.86).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W20W00DA·SPO17/07H·EKI23/07H·AKT30/07A·SHA06/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.502.000.000.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.670.672.000.000.001.00
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %75% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L01L00DA·KHA16/07H·TAR24/07A·EKI30/07H·SPO06/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.250.500.000.500.500.50
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (3)0.330.670.001.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L10W41W01LA·SPO17/07H·EKI23/07H·AKT30/07A·SHA06/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.251.502.500.500.002.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.331.671.000.000.002.50
vs Weaker (1)4.001.004.001.00--
Clean sheet %25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D11D10WA·KHA16/07H·TAR24/07A·EKI30/07H·SPO06/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.250.500.000.500.50
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %75% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
KA2 wins
0
Draws
0
YS2 wins

Head-to-head

Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Yelimay Semey 2 · H/A from KA2
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/08/26AShakhter Karagandy Vs KA21-0
30/07/26HKA2 Vs Aktobe Jas6-1
23/07/26HKA2 Vs Ekibastuz3-0
17/07/26ASport Academy Kairat Vs KA26-0

Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/08/26HYS2 Vs Sport Academy Kairat1-0
30/07/26AEkibastuz Vs YS22-1
24/07/26HYS2 Vs Taraz0-1
16/07/26AKhan Tengri Vs YS20-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kaspij Aktau 2
Kaspij Aktau 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWL1.50
HomeWW3.00
AwayLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%100%0%
AVG goals4.255.003.50
Over 1.5 %75%100%50%
Over 2.5 %75%100%50%
Over 3.5 %50%50%50%
Scored2.254.500.00
Conceded2.000.503.50
BTTS25%50%0%
Clean Sheet25%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Yelimay Semey 2
Yelimay Semey 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLW1.50
HomeLW1.50
AwayWL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals1.501.002.00
Over 1.5 %25%0%50%
Over 2.5 %25%0%50%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored0.750.501.00
Conceded0.750.501.00
BTTS25%0%50%
Clean Sheet50%50%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
3Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
4Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
8Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
9JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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