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Kaspiy vs Aktobe Result & Analysis

Date: 30/07/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 2-2
Kaspiy
Kaspiy
Vs
24%
28%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aktobe
Aktobe
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Kaspiy win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

KaspiyKaspiy

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D10W00D11D23L13L12L12L01LA·KYZ22/04H·ATY07/05A·FK 13/05A·AKT21/05H·SHA27/05A·ZHE04/06A·FC 24/06H·FC 02/07H·ZHE16/07A·SHA23/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.930.921.690.822.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.901.931.001.670.822.12
vs Weaker (1)0.002.000.002.00--
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W12L00D10W20W11D21W10W10W41WH·FK 06/05A·KAI14/05H·KAS21/05A·KAI28/05H·SHA03/06H·MAQ25/06A·MAQ01/07A·SHA15/07H·KAI22/07A·TOR27/07
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.970.902.200.671.731.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)2.501.083.200.602.001.43
vs Weaker (18)1.610.781.700.701.500.88
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
6.3%
2-2 ✓
5.0%
Kaspiy goals ↓
Aktobe goals →
01234
08.5%10%8.9%4.6%1.8%
16.5%13%9.4%4.9%1.9%
24.1%6.3%5.0%2.6%1.0%
31.4%2.2%1.7%0.9%0.4%
40.4%0.6%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspiy goals (down), columns = Aktobe goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ordabasy
2.23
FC Astana
2.04
Aktobe
1.92
Kairat Almaty
1.69
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kaisar
1.38
Atyrau
1.31
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.31
Zhetysu
1.12
Maqtaaral
1.12
Shakhter Karagandy
1.12
Okzhetpes
1.04
Kaspiy
0.77
FK Aksu
0.69
Kaspiy is 1.15 points worse than Aktobe in terms of average points per game (0.77 vs 1.92).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
1.85
Aktobe
1.69
Kairat Almaty
1.65
FC Astana
1.38
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Kaisar
1.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.12
Kaspiy
1.08
Zhetysu
1.04
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Atyrau
0.92
FK Aksu
0.88
Kaspiy is 0.62 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.69).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.81
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.88
Aktobe
0.88
FC Astana
0.92
Atyrau
1.04
Kaisar
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.23
Kairat Almaty
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.42
Zhetysu
1.46
Kaspiy
1.69
FK Aksu
1.73
Kaspiy is 0.81 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 0.88).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

KaspiyKaspiy

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AktobeAktobe

For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

13046675210137A·TORH·OKZA·ZHE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

90433123367459A·TORA·FC H·OKZA·ZHE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

KaspiyKaspiy

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (42)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (40)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (43)10.013.08.50.60.20.9---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (17)11.513.010.00.90.71.1---
vs Weaker (26)7.0-7.00.30.00.8---
% over line67%100%50%9%5%14%---
% under line33%0%50%91%95%86%---
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
10.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.6
FC Astana
9.2
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.5
Zhetysu
6.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
7.0
Aktobe
6.2
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
Ordabasy
5.5
Okzhetpes
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.5
Shakhter Karagandy
3.0
FC Astana
2.7
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
27.5
FC Astana
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.2%
Under 9.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
77.5%
Under 3.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KaspiyKaspiy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W00D00D21W02L01L10W01LA·KYZ22/04H·ATY07/05A·FK 13/05A·AKT21/05H·SHA27/05A·ZHE04/06A·FC 24/06H·FC 02/07H·ZHE16/07A·SHA23/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.800.460.620.470.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.480.760.500.500.470.94
vs Weaker (1)0.002.000.002.00--
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D10W10W11D00D10W20WH·FK 06/05A·KAI14/05H·KAS21/05A·KAI28/05H·SHA03/06H·MAQ25/06A·MAQ01/07A·SHA15/07H·KAI22/07A·TOR27/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.301.200.330.670.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.420.252.000.601.000.00
vs Weaker (18)0.610.330.800.200.380.50
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KaspiyKaspiy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D00D11D02L11D11D02L00DA·KYZ22/04H·ATY07/05A·FK 13/05A·AKT21/05H·SHA27/05A·ZHE04/06A·FC 24/06H·FC 02/07H·ZHE16/07A·SHA23/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.130.461.080.351.18
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.411.170.501.170.351.18
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AktobeAktobe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D12L00D10W10W01L10W10W00D21WH·FK 06/05A·KAI14/05H·KAS21/05A·KAI28/05H·SHA03/06H·MAQ25/06A·MAQ01/07A·SHA15/07H·KAI22/07A·TOR27/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.601.000.331.070.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.080.831.200.001.001.43
vs Weaker (18)1.000.440.900.501.120.38
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards89.9%--------
Under 11.5 corners85.8%--------
Under 10.5 corners77.6%--------
Over 3.5 cards77.5%--------
Over 1.574.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Kaspiy's squad is €6m less valuable than Aktobe's (€4m vs €10m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Kaspiy's attack is €4m less valuable than Aktobe's (€1m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kaspiy and Aktobe have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
Kaspiy's defence is €1m less valuable than Aktobe's (€1m vs €3m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
KAS wins
1
Draws
1
AKT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kaspiy vs Aktobe · H/A from KAS
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23AAktobe Vs KAS0-0
08/10/22AAktobe Vs KAS4-0
08/05/22HKAS Vs Aktobe2-0

KaspiyKaspiy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/23AShakhter Karagandy Vs KAS1-0
16/07/23HKAS Vs Zhetysu1-2
02/07/23HKAS Vs FC Astana1-2
24/06/23AFC Astana Vs KAS3-1
04/06/23AZhetysu Vs KAS3-2
27/05/23HKAS Vs Shakhter Karagandy1-1
21/05/23AAktobe Vs KAS0-0
13/05/23AFK Aksu Vs KAS0-1
07/05/23HKAS Vs Atyrau1-1
22/04/23AKyzyl-Zhar Vs KAS1-1

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/23ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs AKT1-4
22/07/23HAKT Vs Kaisar1-0
15/07/23AShakhter Karagandy Vs AKT0-1
01/07/23AMaqtaaral Vs AKT1-2
25/06/23HAKT Vs Maqtaaral1-1
03/06/23HAKT Vs Shakhter Karagandy2-0
28/05/23AKaisar Vs AKT0-1
21/05/23HAKT Vs Kaspiy0-0
14/05/23AKairat Almaty Vs AKT2-1
06/05/23HAKT Vs FK Aksu2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kaspiy
Kaspiy
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.98
HomeWDDLL1.45
AwayWDLLL0.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%40%14%
AVG goals2.642.502.77
Over 1.5 %71%75%68%
Over 2.5 %52%55%50%
Over 3.5 %33%20%45%
Scored0.981.250.73
Conceded1.671.252.05
BTTS52%55%50%
Clean Sheet24%30%18%
Corners---
Cards---
Aktobe
Aktobe
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.07
HomeWDWDW2.57
AwayLWWWW1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %63%81%45%
AVG goals2.742.862.64
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %51%57%45%
Over 3.5 %33%38%27%
Scored1.772.141.41
Conceded0.980.711.23
BTTS56%57%55%
Clean Sheet33%43%23%
Corners10.0013.008.50
Cards6.255.006.67

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OrdabasyOrdabasy2658
69%
2.2
4821+27
2.7
73%
54%
31%
5.0
0%
4.4
60%
-
0%
10
3341.80.8
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana2653
62%
2.0
3624+12
2.3
65%
42%
15%
8.5
50%
2.9
38%
-
0%
10
3251.40.9
-
3AktobeAktobe2650
50%
1.9
4423+21
2.6
73%
46%
31%
10.0
50%
5.9
88%
-
0%
10
5231.70.9
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2644
46%
1.7
4333+10
2.9
77%
69%
38%
-
0%
3.0
50%
-
0%
10
4241.71.3
-
5Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2639
42%
1.5
2523+2
1.8
50%
31%
8%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
4
2111.00.9
-
6KaisarKaisar2636
38%
1.4
3130+1
2.3
65%
42%
27%
-
0%
5.0
50%
-
0%
4
2121.21.2
-
7FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2634
35%
1.3
3032-2
2.4
73%
46%
15%
-
0%
3.2
50%
-
0%
9
3241.21.2
-
8AtyrauAtyrau2634
31%
1.3
2427-3
2.0
54%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.91.0
-
9MaqtaaralMaqtaaral2629
31%
1.1
2932-3
2.3
73%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2629
27%
1.1
3136-5
2.6
81%
54%
23%
11.0
100%
2.3
17%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11ZhetysuZhetysu2629
31%
1.1
2738-11
2.5
77%
50%
15%
6.0
0%
6.1
100%
-
0%
3
1021.01.5
-
12OkzhetpesOkzhetpes2627
27%
1.0
2637-11
2.4
62%
42%
19%
13.0
100%
2.5
25%
-
0%
5
2111.01.4
-
13KaspiyKaspiy2620
15%
0.8
2844-16
2.8
77%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.7
-
14FK AksuFK Aksu2618
19%
0.7
2345-22
2.6
77%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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