Kaspiy’s recent win and a solid home form of 2.54 goals scored and 1.15 conceded give the model a 68% chance of a home victory, the clear favourite. The opponent’s away side, Altay, averages 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against, making them vulnerable at home. The expected total of 4.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being 6 + goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Kaspiy, a 8.3% chance. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 68%, 17% and 15% respectively. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 95.3%, Home over 0.5 goals at 94.2%, Home +2 handicap at 93.9%, Under 7.5 at 93.7%, Over 1.5 at 92.7%, Under 6.5 at 86.9%, Home or Draw at 85.2% and Home +1 handicap also at 85.2%. All figures are presented in plain percentage form.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaspiy win
68.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) win
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaspiy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.20
2.67
1.07
2.60
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.50
1.35
2.54
1.15
2.46
1.54
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.25
3.50
0.50
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.50
2.31
1.38
1.71
1.59
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
2.38
1.33
2.33
1.20
2.40
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.30
2.60
1.10
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.7%
Under 1.5
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
78.9%
Under 2.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
60.3%
Under 3.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.0%
No
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.3%
3-1
7.9%
1-1
6.4%
2-0
6.2%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
5.6%
2-2
5.5%
3-2
5.2%
Kaspiy goals ↓
Altay (Kazakhstan) goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.1%
1.4%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
1
3.8%
6.4%
3.9%
1.7%
0.6%
2
6.2%
8.3%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
5.9%
7.9%
5.2%
2.3%
0.8%
4
4.2%
5.6%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspiy goals (down), columns = Altay (Kazakhstan) goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Kaspiy is 1.33 points better than Altay (Kazakhstan) in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Kaspiy is 0.50 goals better than Altay (Kazakhstan) in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Kaspiy is 1.50 goals better than Altay (Kazakhstan) in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kaspiy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaspiy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kaspiy or Draw
85.2%
Avg Implied -
68%
17%
15%
covers Kaspiy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy or Altay (Kazakhstan)
83.1%
Avg Implied -
68%
17%
15%
covers Kaspiy + Altay (Kazakhstan)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Altay (Kazakhstan)
31.7%
Avg Implied -
68%
17%
15%
covers Draw + Altay (Kazakhstan)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5
Over
94.3%
Under
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 3.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kaspiy, so a minus line means Kaspiy give that many goals of a start and Altay (Kazakhstan) receive them. At -1, Kaspiy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kaspiy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kaspiy)
Kaspiy -2
30.2%
Draw -2
18.9%
Altay (Kazakhstan) +2
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kaspiy)
Kaspiy -1
49.1%
Draw -1
19.2%
Altay (Kazakhstan) +1
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kaspiy)
Kaspiy +1
85.2%
Draw +1
8.7%
Altay (Kazakhstan) -1
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kaspiy)
Kaspiy +2
93.9%
Draw +2
4.1%
Altay (Kazakhstan) -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaspiy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.50
1.31
0.38
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.85
0.85
0.82
0.76
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
0.33
1.67
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.55
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaspiy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.77
1.33
0.73
1.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.50
0.85
1.23
0.77
1.77
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.46
0.54
0.88
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
1.15
0.75
1.60
0.50
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Kaspiy and Altay (Kazakhstan) have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Kaspiy and Altay (Kazakhstan) have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kaspiy's midfield is €1m more valuable than Altay (Kazakhstan)'s (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Kaspiy and Altay (Kazakhstan) have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →