Kaspiy hosts Ulytau in the Kazakhstan Premier League, with Kaspiy coming off a defeat against Irtysh, having lost 2-3 in their last outing. Ulytau, meanwhile, suffered two consecutive defeats, most recently a 0-2 loss to FC Astana. Kaspiy is the favourite to win, with a 46% chance of taking the three points, followed by a 30% chance of an Ulytau victory and a 24% chance of a draw. The model predicts a home win, and the expected total goals is 3.4, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.7% probability. Kaspiy has averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded at home, while Ulytau has averaged 0.64 goals scored and 1.0 conceded away from home against similar opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 85.8% probability and a 15% edge. Kaspiy has a 46% chance of winning, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of an Ulytau victory.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Kaspiy's home draw extends their run of consecutive draws to five matches. The match ended 1-1, with the actual result being a draw. The pre-match favourite, a home win, came in at 51% probability, but the model's call was wrong as Kaspiy were not able to break through for the win. The model's selection of a home win did not materialize. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75.1%, while Under 3.5 goals also hit, with a 72.8% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kaspiy win✗ Miss
51.3%
Avg Implied 39.2% · @ 2.30
Edge
+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.48
William Hil
2.38
888Sport
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Pinnacle
2.35
Draw✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.05
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.10
Ulytau win✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied 31.2% · @ 2.89
Edge
-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.97
Unibet
2.95
Betano
2.95
Dafabet
2.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kaspiy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
1.17
3.00
1.08
2.47
1.24
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.58
1.31
2.91
1.18
2.33
1.40
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.25
3.50
0.50
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.60
1.00
1.88
0.50
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.93
1.00
2.00
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (16)
0.81
1.31
1.00
1.71
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.1%
@ 1.30+4.6%
Under 1.5
24.9%
@ 3.12-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Under
Unibet
3.35
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.20
888Sport
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.1%
@ 1.99+2.4%
Under 2.5
50.9%
@ 1.74-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
888Sport
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
@ 3.33-0.3%
Under 3.5
72.8%
@ 1.26+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.60
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
@ 1.73-0.9%
No
48.0%
@ 1.94+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
No
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.9%@ 5.50+5.3%
1-0
10.6%@ 6.65+4.3%
2-0
9.7%@ 9.74+5.4%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.23+4.5%
0-0
8.3%@ 8.11+3.2%
0-1
6.0%@ 7.71+0.5%
1-2
5.8%@ 9.43+1.4%
3-0
5.3%@ 19.68+3.2%
Kaspiy goals ↓
Ulytau goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.0%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.8%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.6%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.3%
5.3%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kaspiy goals (down), columns = Ulytau goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Kaspiy is 0.70 points better than Ulytau in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Kaspiy is 0.47 goals better than Ulytau in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Kaspiy is 0.10 goals better than Ulytau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kaspiy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ulytau
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaspiy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ulytau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.0
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
29.2
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.3
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kaspiy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
1.31
0.38
0.65
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.54
1.27
0.45
0.67
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.81
0.36
0.29
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.71
0.56
0.89
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.44
0.43
0.71
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kaspiy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.70
1.69
0.69
1.82
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.65
0.77
1.64
0.73
1.67
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.03
0.50
1.06
0.14
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.21
0.44
1.11
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.88
0.57
1.00
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.1%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.29
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.8%
1.26
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
+0.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Kaspiy and Ulytau have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Kaspiy and Ulytau have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kaspiy's midfield is €1m more valuable than Ulytau's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Kaspiy and Ulytau have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →