Kaspiy are set to face Yelimay Semey in the Kazakhstan Premier League on August 16th. Yelimay Semey are coming off a win, having defeated Irtysh 3-1 in their last match, while Kaspiy drew 1-1 against Ulytau. This high-scoring match is expected to yield 3.8 goals on average, with the most likely total goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 8.9%.
Kaspiy have struggled at home, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 0, particularly against stronger opponents. On the other hand, Yelimay Semey have been scoring 1.58 goals and conceding 1.17 when playing away against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is an away win, with a probability of 46%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 89.9%, Over 2.5 goals, with a probability of 72.8%, and BTTS Yes, with a probability of 72.4%. The home team's win percentage is 31%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away team's win percentage is 46%.
In a stunning turn of events, Yelimay Semey earned a 2-2 draw against Kaspiy, extending their run of consecutive draws to three games. This result marked a surprise upset, as Kaspiy were expected to take the win. However, the model's selection, Away win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 47%. The model's call was wrong.
The model's selection of Kaspiy to win was the pre-match favourite, but it failed to deliver. The suggested picks all hit, with Over 1.5, Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes all coming to fruition, with probabilities of 90%, 72.9% and 72.3% respectively.
Kaspiy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.70 | 1.20 | 2.86 | 1.07 | 2.56 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 2.58 | 1.35 | 2.75 | 1.17 | 2.43 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 3.50 | 0.25 | 3.50 | 0.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Yelimay Semey| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.20 | 1.69 | 1.23 | 1.82 | 1.18 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.43 | 1.64 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 2.06 | 0.81 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.10 | 0.70 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Yelimay Semey goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 3.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| 2 | 3.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
Kaspiy
Yelimay Semey
Kaspiy| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (42) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (8) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Yelimay Semey| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (29) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Kaspiy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.47 | 1.29 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.96 | 0.54 | 1.25 | 0.42 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
Yelimay Semey| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.82 | 0.65 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.29 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.19 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.17 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Kaspiy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 0.73 | 1.57 | 0.71 | 1.88 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.62 | 0.81 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.71 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.50 | 0.25 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Yelimay Semey| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.14 | 0.79 | 1.43 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 0.88 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 90.0% | 1.21 | 1.33 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.16 | +13.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 77.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.68 | 2.00 | 1.71 | 1.68 | 1.65 | 1.64 | +17.3% | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 72.3% | 1.58 | 1.73 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.54 | +14.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Kaspiy| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 24/10/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/10/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 03/10/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 26/09/25 | H | 3-1 |
Yelimay Semey| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 26/10/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 3-6 | |
| 28/09/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/09/25 | A | 3-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Ordabasy | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 3.3 | 100% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | FC Astana | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Kairat Almaty | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Aktobe | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.5 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Kaspiy | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Irtysh | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 3.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 | Zhenys | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 11 | Yelimay Semey | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | - |
| 12 | Ulytau | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Kaisar | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 | Atyrau | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.7 | 83% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 15 | Altay (Kazakhstan) | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 83% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.6 | 2.8 | - |