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Kastrioti Krujë vs Burreli Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 3-1
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
Vs
57%
28%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Burreli
Burreli
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kastrioti Krujë win✓ Hit
57.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Burreli win✗ Miss
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D21W31W02L02L31W22D02L10W23LA·APO17/02H·BYL21/02H·BES25/02A·APO03/03H·FLA09/03A·VOR16/03H·AF 27/03A·BYL31/03H·LUZ06/04A·BES14/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.571.290.930.942.12
vs Stronger (13)1.082.001.171.501.002.43
vs Similar (17)1.121.241.380.500.891.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L20W02L10W21W03L10W12L01L01LA·FLA10/02H·TOM17/02A·LUZ25/02A·FLA03/03H·VOR09/03A·AF 16/03H·BYL27/03A·LUZ31/03H·BES06/04A·TOM13/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.271.070.930.401.60
vs Stronger (13)0.851.381.000.710.672.17
vs Similar (17)0.651.181.121.120.221.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.0%
Under 1.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.9%
Under 2.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.7%
Under 3.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.6%
No
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.6%
2-0
13.3%
0-0
13.0%
1-1
12.4%
2-1
8.4%
3-0
6.6%
0-1
6.4%
3-1 ✓
4.2%
Kastrioti Krujë goals ↓
Burreli goals →
01234
013%6.4%2.4%0.5%0.1%
117%12%3.6%0.8%0.1%
213%8.4%2.7%0.6%0.1%
36.6%4.2%1.3%0.3%0.0%
42.5%1.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kastrioti Krujë goals (down), columns = Burreli goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë and Burreli are level in average points per game (both 1.21).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë is 0.45 goals better than Burreli in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 0.85).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Kastrioti Krujë is 0.12 goals worse than Burreli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.30).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D02L00D00D01L02L10W11DA·APO17/02H·BYL21/02H·BES25/02A·APO03/03H·FLA09/03A·VOR16/03H·AF 27/03A·BYL31/03H·LUZ06/04A·BES14/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.870.360.500.311.19
vs Stronger (13)0.150.920.170.500.141.29
vs Similar (17)0.470.820.500.500.441.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BurreliBurreli

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W00D00D21W01L10W01L00D00DA·FLA10/02H·TOM17/02A·LUZ25/02A·FLA03/03H·VOR09/03A·AF 16/03H·BYL27/03A·LUZ31/03H·BES06/04A·TOM13/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.600.670.470.000.73
vs Stronger (13)0.310.770.570.570.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.350.470.750.380.000.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W20W00D02L31W21W00D00D12LA·APO17/02H·BYL21/02H·BES25/02A·APO03/03H·FLA09/03A·VOR16/03H·AF 27/03A·BYL31/03H·LUZ06/04A·BES14/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.930.430.620.94
vs Stronger (13)0.921.081.001.000.861.14
vs Similar (17)0.650.410.880.000.440.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BurreliBurreli

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D10W02L10W00D02L00D11D01L01LA·FLA10/02H·TOM17/02A·LUZ25/02A·FLA03/03H·VOR09/03A·AF 16/03H·BYL27/03A·LUZ31/03H·BES06/04A·TOM13/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.670.400.470.400.87
vs Stronger (13)0.540.620.430.140.671.17
vs Similar (17)0.290.710.380.750.220.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Kastrioti Krujë and Burreli have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Kastrioti Krujë and Burreli have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Kastrioti Krujë and Burreli have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
Kastrioti Krujë and Burreli have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
KK wins
2
Draws
0
BUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kastrioti Krujë vs Burreli · H/A from KK
DateH/AGameScore
26/11/23HKK Vs Burreli0-0
13/09/23ABurreli Vs KK0-0

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24ABesa Kavajë Vs KK3-2
06/04/24HKK Vs Luzi 20081-0
31/03/24ABylis Vs KK2-0
27/03/24HKK Vs AF Elbasani2-2
16/03/24AVora Vs KK1-3
09/03/24HKK Vs Flamurtari0-2
03/03/24AApolonia Fier Vs KK2-0
25/02/24HKK Vs Besa Kavajë3-1
21/02/24HKK Vs Bylis2-1
17/02/24AApolonia Fier Vs KK1-1

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24ATomori Berat Vs BUR1-0
06/04/24HBUR Vs Besa Kavajë0-1
31/03/24ALuzi 2008 Vs BUR2-1
27/03/24HBUR Vs Bylis1-0
16/03/24AAF Elbasani Vs BUR3-0
09/03/24HBUR Vs Vora2-1
03/03/24AFlamurtari Vs BUR0-1
25/02/24ALuzi 2008 Vs BUR2-0
17/02/24HBUR Vs Tomori Berat2-0
10/02/24AFlamurtari Vs BUR4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL0.94
HomeWWLDW1.54
AwayDLWLL0.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%38%8%
AVG goals2.502.252.73
Over 1.5 %64%62%65%
Over 2.5 %42%38%46%
Over 3.5 %36%29%42%
Scored0.941.170.73
Conceded1.561.082.00
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet22%33%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Burreli
Burreli
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.20
HomeWWWWL1.81
AwayLWLLL0.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%50%12%
AVG goals1.861.771.96
Over 1.5 %50%46%54%
Over 2.5 %30%23%38%
Over 3.5 %10%12%8%
Scored0.781.080.46
Conceded1.080.691.50
BTTS32%35%29%
Clean Sheet38%54%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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