The model favours an away win for Flamurtari, with a 61% probability, while a draw sits at 24% and a home victory at 16%. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a modestly high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.3% chance. Kastrioti Krujë, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded, whereas Flamurtari, on the road, has shown a more solid defensive record in recent matches. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.5%, Away +2 handicap at 94.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 94.0%, Under 5.5 at 93.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 87.0%, and Away over 0.5 goals at 85.4%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every selection is listed with its exact figure.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kastrioti Krujë win
15.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari win
60.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kastrioti Krujë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.80
1.81
1.56
0.93
2.07
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
3.11
2.00
2.50
0.40
3.60
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.24
1.75
1.25
1.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.06
1.12
1.21
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.13
1.17
1.06
1.12
1.21
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
0-2
11.2%
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.2%
0-0
7.1%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
4.5%
Kastrioti Krujë goals ↓
Flamurtari goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
11%
11%
7.2%
3.5%
1
4.3%
11%
9.9%
6.3%
3.0%
2
2.3%
4.5%
4.3%
2.8%
1.3%
3
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kastrioti Krujë goals (down), columns = Flamurtari goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
1.00
Kastrioti Krujë is 0.04 points worse than Flamurtari in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Kastrioti Krujë is 0.23 goals better than Flamurtari in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Kastrioti Krujë is 0.50 goals worse than Flamurtari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kastrioti Krujë or Draw
39.1%
Avg Implied -
15%
24%
61%
covers Kastrioti Krujë + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë or Flamurtari
76.4%
Avg Implied -
15%
24%
61%
covers Kastrioti Krujë + Flamurtari
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flamurtari
84.5%
Avg Implied -
15%
24%
61%
covers Draw + Flamurtari
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5
Over
58.4%
Under
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5
Over
85.4%
Under
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5
Over
57.3%
Under
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 3.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kastrioti Krujë, so a minus line means Kastrioti Krujë give that many goals of a start and Flamurtari receive them. At -1, Kastrioti Krujë must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kastrioti Krujë win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kastrioti Krujë)
Kastrioti Krujë -2
1.3%
Draw -2
4.0%
Flamurtari +2
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kastrioti Krujë)
Kastrioti Krujë -1
5.2%
Draw -1
10.3%
Flamurtari +1
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kastrioti Krujë)
Kastrioti Krujë +1
39.1%
Draw +1
23.7%
Flamurtari -1
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kastrioti Krujë)
Kastrioti Krujë +2
62.8%
Draw +2
19.1%
Flamurtari -2
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kastrioti Krujë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.88
0.75
0.36
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.22
1.50
1.25
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.67
0.58
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kastrioti Krujë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.94
0.81
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.89
0.50
1.25
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.62
1.08
0.67
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Burreli
Korabi Peshkopi
Oriku
Bylis
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Pogradeci
Besa Kavajë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë