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Kastrioti Krujë vs Luzi 2008 Result & Analysis

Date: 27/09/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
Vs
41%
34%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kastrioti Krujë win✓ Hit
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D10W01L14L03L11D00D00D01LA·TIR30/04H·VLL06/05H·EGN17/05A·TEU21/05H·PAR25/05A·LAC29/05H·AF 03/09A·BUR13/09H·FLA17/09A·TOM23/09← Superliga1st Division →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.501.001.200.331.80
vs Stronger (22)0.681.770.921.250.402.40
vs Similar (8)0.620.751.331.000.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Luzi 2008) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D20W20W10W01L10W11D01L00D12LH·BES18/03A·TOM01/04H·LUS07/04A·BES15/04A·APO07/05H·DIN18/05H·FLA02/09A·TOM13/09H·KOR17/09H·BYL23/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.031.070.801.001.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.961.041.000.860.921.23
vs Weaker (2)2.001.002.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %34% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%17%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.0%
Under 1.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.7%
Under 2.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.0%
Under 3.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.1%
No
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.8%
1-0 ✓
15.6%
1-1
14.4%
0-1
10.7%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.6%
Kastrioti Krujë goals ↓
Luzi 2008 goals →
01234
017%11%4.6%1.2%0.2%
116%14%5.1%1.3%0.3%
29.2%7.1%2.8%0.7%0.1%
33.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%0.1%
40.9%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kastrioti Krujë goals (down), columns = Luzi 2008 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë is 0.27 points better than Luzi 2008 in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë is 0.06 goals better than Luzi 2008 in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Kastrioti Krujë is 0.27 goals better than Luzi 2008 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D01L12L01L00D00D00D01LA·TIR30/04H·VLL06/05H·EGN17/05A·TEU21/05H·PAR25/05A·LAC29/05H·AF 03/09A·BUR13/09H·FLA17/09A·TOM23/09← Superliga1st Division →
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.730.270.530.270.93
vs Stronger (22)0.270.860.250.500.301.30
vs Similar (8)0.250.380.330.670.200.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Luzi 2008) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W10W00D00D10W01L01L00D00DH·BES18/03A·TOM01/04H·LUS07/04A·BES15/04A·APO07/05H·DIN18/05H·FLA02/09A·TOM13/09H·KOR17/09H·BYL23/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.410.410.470.270.360.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.330.440.430.290.230.62
vs Weaker (2)1.500.001.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %69% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D10W00D02L02L11D00D00D00DA·TIR30/04H·VLL06/05H·EGN17/05A·TEU21/05H·PAR25/05A·LAC29/05H·AF 03/09A·BUR13/09H·FLA17/09A·TOM23/09← Superliga1st Division →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.730.670.070.87
vs Stronger (22)0.410.910.670.750.101.10
vs Similar (8)0.380.381.000.330.000.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Luzi 2008) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W10W10W01L00D10W00D00D12LH·BES18/03A·TOM01/04H·LUS07/04A·BES15/04A·APO07/05H·DIN18/05H·FLA02/09A·TOM13/09H·KOR17/09H·BYL23/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.620.600.530.640.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.630.590.570.570.690.62
vs Weaker (2)0.501.001.000.000.002.00
Clean sheet %52% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.588.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
KK wins
0
Draws
0
L2 wins

Head-to-head

Kastrioti Krujë vs Luzi 2008 · H/A from KK
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23ATomori Berat Vs KK1-0
17/09/23HKK Vs Flamurtari0-0
13/09/23ABurreli Vs KK0-0
03/09/23HKK Vs AF Elbasani1-1
29/05/23ALaci Vs KK3-0
25/05/23HKK Vs Partizani1-4
21/05/23ATeuta Durrës Vs KK1-0
17/05/23HKK Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-0
06/05/23HKK Vs Vllaznia Shkodër2-2
30/04/23ATirana Vs KK1-0

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23HL2 Vs Bylis1-2
17/09/23HL2 Vs Korabi Peshkopi0-0
13/09/23ATomori Berat Vs L21-0
02/09/23HL2 Vs Flamurtari1-1
18/05/23HL2 Vs Dinamo Tirana1-0
07/05/23AApolonia Fier Vs L21-0
15/04/23ABesëlidhja Lezhë Vs L20-1
07/04/23HL2 Vs Lushnja2-0
01/04/23ATomori Berat Vs L20-2
18/03/23HL2 Vs Besa Kavajë2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDL0.95
HomeDWLDD1.35
AwayLLLDL0.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%30%10%
AVG goals1.952.001.90
Over 1.5 %50%55%45%
Over 2.5 %32%35%30%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored0.681.000.35
Conceded1.271.001.55
BTTS35%45%25%
Clean Sheet32%40%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDL1.28
HomeWWDDL1.60
AwayLWWLL0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %31%40%21%
AVG goals2.071.872.29
Over 1.5 %66%67%64%
Over 2.5 %34%27%43%
Over 3.5 %14%7%21%
Scored1.031.071.00
Conceded1.030.801.29
BTTS48%47%50%
Clean Sheet34%47%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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