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Kastrioti Krujë vs Luzi 2008 Result & Analysis

Date: 27/04/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
Vs
50%
28%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kastrioti Krujë win✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 win✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L23L12L01L03L20W01L11D32WH·POG23/02A·BUR01/03H·BES05/03A·FLA09/03H·VOR15/03A·VAL26/03H·FK 30/03A·KOR05/04H·APO13/04A·ERZ20/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.431.201.000.801.87
vs Stronger (8)0.621.500.400.801.002.67
vs Similar (22)1.141.411.601.100.751.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Luzi 2008) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W21W14L21W01L40W15L10W01L33DH·BYL09/03A·TOM16/03A·BES27/03H·BUR31/03A·KAS06/04H·LUS13/04A·KOR24/04H·APO28/04A·FLA04/05H·VOR08/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.801.711.431.002.12
vs Stronger (3)1.673.672.004.001.503.50
vs Similar (24)1.211.621.551.270.921.92
vs Weaker (3)2.001.332.501.001.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0 ✓
11.2%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.0%
Kastrioti Krujë goals ↓
Luzi 2008 goals →
01234
09.1%6.5%3.8%1.2%0.3%
111%13%5.9%1.9%0.5%
29.7%9.4%4.6%1.5%0.4%
35.0%4.9%2.4%0.8%0.2%
42.0%1.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kastrioti Krujë goals (down), columns = Luzi 2008 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vora
2.30
Flamurtari
2.27
Besa Kavajë
2.14
Burreli
1.71
Pogradeci
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.33
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
FK Kukesi
0.91
Valbona
0.48
Erzeni Shijak
0.33
Luzi 2008
0.00
Oriku
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë is 1.21 points better than Luzi 2008 in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flamurtari
1.88
Vora
1.67
Besa Kavajë
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.18
Korabi Peshkopi
1.06
Burreli
1.06
Kastrioti Krujë
1.06
Pogradeci
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.88
Valbona
0.88
Erzeni Shijak
0.48
Luzi 2008
0.00
Oriku
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë is 1.06 goals better than Luzi 2008 in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.57
Flamurtari
0.64
Burreli
0.68
Vora
0.73
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Luzi 2008
1.00
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
1.00
Lushnja
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.44
Korabi Peshkopi
1.45
FK Kukesi
1.65
Valbona
1.79
Erzeni Shijak
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë is 0.44 goals worse than Luzi 2008 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D21W10W01L01L00D00D00D01LH·POG23/02A·BUR01/03H·BES05/03A·FLA09/03H·VOR15/03A·VAL26/03H·FK 30/03A·KOR05/04H·APO13/04A·ERZ20/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.600.530.530.130.67
vs Stronger (8)0.120.750.000.800.330.67
vs Similar (22)0.410.550.800.400.080.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Luzi 2008) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D02L10W01L10W12L00D01L10WH·BYL09/03A·TOM16/03A·BES27/03H·BUR31/03A·KAS06/04H·LUS13/04A·KOR24/04H·APO28/04A·FLA04/05H·VOR08/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.900.500.570.311.19
vs Stronger (3)0.672.671.003.000.502.50
vs Similar (24)0.380.710.450.450.310.92
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.500.000.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L02L02L00D02L20W01L11D31WH·POG23/02A·BUR01/03H·BES05/03A·FLA09/03H·VOR15/03A·VAL26/03H·FK 30/03A·KOR05/04H·APO13/04A·ERZ20/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.830.670.470.671.20
vs Stronger (8)0.500.750.400.000.672.00
vs Similar (22)0.730.860.800.700.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Luzi 2008) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W12L11D00D30W03L10W00D23LH·BYL09/03A·TOM16/03A·BES27/03H·BUR31/03A·KAS06/04H·LUS13/04A·KOR24/04H·APO28/04A·FLA04/05H·VOR08/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.901.210.860.690.94
vs Stronger (3)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.830.921.090.820.621.00
vs Weaker (3)1.670.672.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luzi 2008 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
KK wins
0
Draws
1
L2 wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kastrioti Krujë vs Luzi 2008 · H/A from KK
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/24HKK Vs Luzi 20081-0
16/12/23ALuzi 2008 Vs KK3-1
27/09/23HKK Vs Luzi 20081-0

Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/25AErzeni Shijak Vs KK2-3
13/04/25HKK Vs Apolonia Fier1-1
05/04/25AKorabi Peshkopi Vs KK1-0
30/03/25HKK Vs FK Kukesi2-0
26/03/25AValbona Vs KK3-0
15/03/25HKK Vs Vora0-1
09/03/25AFlamurtari Vs KK2-1
05/03/25HKK Vs Besa Kavajë2-3
01/03/25ABurreli Vs KK1-0
23/02/25HKK Vs Pogradeci0-0

Luzi 2008Luzi 2008

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/24HL2 Vs Vora3-3
04/05/24AFlamurtari Vs L21-0
28/04/24HL2 Vs Apolonia Fier1-0
24/04/24AKorabi Peshkopi Vs L25-1
13/04/24HL2 Vs Lushnja4-0
06/04/24AKastrioti Krujë Vs L21-0
31/03/24HL2 Vs Burreli2-1
27/03/24ABesa Kavajë Vs L24-1
16/03/24ATomori Berat Vs L21-2
09/03/24HL2 Vs Bylis3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW1.26
HomeDLLWD1.83
AwayLLLLW0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%54%19%
AVG goals2.782.582.96
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %52%42%62%
Over 3.5 %32%25%38%
Scored1.281.501.08
Conceded1.501.081.88
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet20%25%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLD1.08
HomeWWWWD1.62
AwayWLLLL0.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%46%15%
AVG goals2.642.462.81
Over 1.5 %68%71%65%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.181.381.00
Conceded1.461.081.81
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet26%42%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VoraVora3376
73%
2.3
5524+31
2.4
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.70.7
-
2FlamurtariFlamurtari3375
70%
2.3
6221+41
2.5
82%
55%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.6
-
3Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3575
63%
2.1
5520+35
2.1
69%
37%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.60.6
-
4BurreliBurreli3458
47%
1.7
3623+13
1.7
53%
32%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.10.7
-
5PogradeciPogradeci3555
46%
1.6
3535+0
2.0
54%
37%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
6Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3446
32%
1.4
4633+13
2.3
71%
41%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
7LushnjaLushnja3344
39%
1.3
3941-2
2.4
58%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.2
-
8Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3441
35%
1.2
3649-13
2.5
65%
47%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.11.4
-
9Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3341
36%
1.2
3548-13
2.5
67%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3431
26%
0.9
3056-26
2.5
76%
56%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11ValbonaValbona3316
9%
0.5
2959-30
2.7
76%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.8
-
12Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3311
6%
0.3
1663-47
2.4
67%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.9
-
13Luzi 2008Luzi 200810
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
14OrikuOriku10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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