Kastrioti Krujë vs Pogradeci Result & Analysis

Kastrioti Krujë are tipped to take the win, a 53% chance that the home side will come away with the victory, while a 28% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of a Pogradeci win. The model expects a modest 2.5 goals in total, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability. Kastrioti’s home form shows they score 0.67 goals and concede 1.0 against stronger opposition, whereas Pogradeci, playing away, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.78 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s selections include an Under 3.5 with a 76.1% chance, an Over 1.5 with 72.1% probability, and a 53% chance of a home win, a 28% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of an away win. The Under 3.5 is the only pick with an edge.

The 0-0 stalemate stunned fans, as the pre-match favourite Kastrioti Krujë failed to secure the win. The model had tipped a home victory with a 53% probability, but the result was a draw, so the model’s call was wrong. The match also saw the model’s selection for Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 76.1% chance, while its pick for Over 1.5 goals missed, despite a 72.1% probability. Kastrioti’s recent form, marked by a string of losses, had them coming off a 0-3 defeat, while Pogradeci also entered after a 0-1 loss. The final score of 0-0 confirmed a draw, ending the game in a surprising equilibrium.