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Kerry vs Bray Wanderers Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/09/2026
Time: 18:45
Kerry
Kerry
Vs
50%
26%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Kerry, riding a win after a 3-1 triumph over Treaty United, is tipped to take the match against Bray Wanderers. The model favours a home victory, with a 50% chance of Kerry winning, a 26% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of Bray winning. The expected total is 2.9 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.1% probability. Kerry’s home form shows an average of 1.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded against stronger opposition, while Bray Wanderers’ away form averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (97.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.3%) and Under 5.5 (92.3%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kerry win
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers win
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KerryKerry

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L11D15L22D21W40W30W13L11D31WH·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07H·FIN24/07A·BRA31/07H·COB03/08A·COR07/08H·UCD21/08H·TRE28/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.531.381.061.432.07
vs Stronger (24)1.381.711.231.151.552.36
vs Similar (6)1.500.832.000.671.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bray WanderersBray Wanderers

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-632W10W12L60W21W04L12L50W24L12LH·UCD28/10H·TRE02/11H·WAT07/11H·UCD10/07A·COB24/07H·KER31/07A·WEX03/08H·FIN07/08A·LON22/08A·ATH28/08← Premier DivisionFirst Division →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.602.271.401.531.80
vs Stronger (14)1.711.572.001.291.431.86
vs Similar (13)2.081.462.501.171.711.71
vs Weaker (3)2.002.332.502.501.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.3%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.5%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
3-1
5.6%
Kerry goals ↓
Bray Wanderers goals →
01234
06.5%5.2%3.7%1.5%0.4%
18.3%12%6.5%2.6%0.8%
28.2%9.6%5.7%2.2%0.7%
34.8%5.6%3.3%1.3%0.4%
42.1%2.5%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kerry goals (down), columns = Bray Wanderers goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Kerry is 0.71 points better than Bray Wanderers in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Kerry is 0.14 goals worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 2.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Kerry is 0.71 goals better than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kerry or Draw
75.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
25%
covers Kerry + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kerry or Bray Wanderers
74.2%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
25%
covers Kerry + Bray Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bray Wanderers
50.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
25%
covers Draw + Bray Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kerry over/under 0.5
Over
82.6%
Under
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5
Over
52.1%
Under
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5
Over
25.5%
Under
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 3.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Kerry, so a minus line means Kerry give that many goals of a start and Bray Wanderers receive them. At -1, Kerry must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kerry win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kerry)
Kerry -2
12.3%
Draw -2
15.5%
Bray Wanderers +2
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kerry)
Kerry -1
27.8%
Draw -1
21.9%
Bray Wanderers +1
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kerry)
Kerry +1
75.4%
Draw +1
14.4%
Bray Wanderers -1
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kerry)
Kerry +2
89.8%
Draw +2
7.0%
Bray Wanderers -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L11D21W10W30W10W01L10WH·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07H·FIN24/07A·BRA31/07H·COB03/08A·COR07/08H·UCD21/08H·TRE28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.470.810.310.640.64
vs Stronger (24)0.670.540.620.310.730.82
vs Similar (6)1.000.171.670.330.330.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bray WanderersBray Wanderers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D20W11D01L12L20W13L11DH·UCD28/10H·TRE02/11H·WAT07/11H·UCD10/07A·COB24/07H·KER31/07A·WEX03/08H·FIN07/08A·LON22/08A·ATH28/08← Premier DivisionFirst Division →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.930.800.730.731.13
vs Stronger (14)0.861.070.860.710.861.43
vs Similar (13)0.690.850.670.830.710.86
vs Weaker (3)0.670.671.000.500.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.5%
Under 0.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.4%
Under 1.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L13L11D00D30W00D03L10W21WH·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07H·FIN24/07A·BRA31/07H·COB03/08A·COR07/08H·UCD21/08H·TRE28/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.070.560.750.791.43
vs Stronger (24)0.711.170.620.850.821.55
vs Similar (6)0.500.670.330.330.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bray WanderersBray Wanderers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W10W01L40W10W03L00D30W11D01LH·UCD28/10H·TRE02/11H·WAT07/11H·UCD10/07A·COB24/07H·KER31/07A·WEX03/08H·FIN07/08A·LON22/08A·ATH28/08← Premier DivisionFirst Division →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.671.470.670.800.67
vs Stronger (14)0.860.501.140.570.570.43
vs Similar (13)1.380.621.830.331.000.86
vs Weaker (3)1.331.671.502.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.5%
Under 0.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.1%
Under 1.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.7%
Under 2.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.0%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.4%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals97.2%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals97.1%-------
Under 6.597.0%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals95.3%-------
Under 5.592.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals90.0%-------
Home +2 handicap89.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.4%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals88.2%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals86.7%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals85.3%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals85.1%-------
Under 4.582.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals82.6%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals81.3%-------
Over 1.580.0%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals79.1%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals78.5%-------
Home or Draw75.4%-------
Home +1 handicap75.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals74.5%-------
Home or Away74.2%-------
Away +2 handicap72.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Kerry and Bray Wanderers have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Kerry and Bray Wanderers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
KER wins
1
Draws
5
BW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kerry vs Bray Wanderers · H/A from KER
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/26ABray Wanderers Vs KER0-4
17/10/25ABray Wanderers Vs KER5-1
20/06/25HKER Vs Bray Wanderers2-1
25/04/25ABray Wanderers Vs KER4-2
07/03/25HKER Vs Bray Wanderers0-1
20/09/24ABray Wanderers Vs KER2-0
12/07/24HKER Vs Bray Wanderers3-3
26/04/24ABray Wanderers Vs KER2-0

KerryKerry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HKER Vs Treaty United3-1
21/08/26HKER Vs UCD1-1
07/08/26ACork City Vs KER3-1
03/08/26HKER Vs Cobh Ramblers3-0
31/07/26ABray Wanderers Vs KER0-4
24/07/26HKER Vs Finn Harps2-1
10/07/26AWexford Vs KER2-2
17/10/25ABray Wanderers Vs KER5-1
13/10/25AFinn Harps Vs KER1-1
10/10/25HKER Vs Wexford0-2

Bray WanderersBray Wanderers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AAthlone Town Vs BW2-1
22/08/26ALongford Town Vs BW4-2
07/08/26HBW Vs Finn Harps5-0
03/08/26AWexford Vs BW2-1
31/07/26HBW Vs Kerry0-4
24/07/26ACobh Ramblers Vs BW1-2
10/07/26HBW Vs UCD6-0
07/11/25HBW Vs Waterford1-2
02/11/25HBW Vs Treaty United1-0
28/10/25HBW Vs UCD3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kerry
Kerry
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.10
HomeLWWDW1.52
AwayDLDWL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%44%12%
AVG goals2.842.323.36
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %50%36%64%
Over 3.5 %32%16%48%
Scored1.241.241.24
Conceded1.601.082.12
BTTS50%36%64%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.62
HomeWLWLW2.00
AwayWWLLL1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%65%38%
AVG goals3.303.692.88
Over 1.5 %82%92%71%
Over 2.5 %72%77%67%
Over 3.5 %48%62%33%
Scored1.782.271.25
Conceded1.521.421.62
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet28%27%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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