This match between Kerry and Cobh Ramblers in the Ireland: First Division is finely balanced, with Kerry coming off a defeat against Cork City and Cobh Ramblers having just secured a 2-0 win over Treaty United. Kerry has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.08 goals and conceding 1.25, while facing stronger opponents. Cobh Ramblers, on the other hand, have a decent record away, scoring 1.5 goals and conceding the same against weaker opponents. The model predicts a home win, with a 38% chance of Kerry taking the three points. The model's selection is a home win, with a 38% chance of Kerry winning, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 32% chance of Cobh Ramblers winning. The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 14% of the time. The model also suggests taking Under 3.5 goals, with a 75.1% chance of it happening, and Over 1.5 goals, with a 73.1% chance.
Results analysis
The win extends Kerry's current run of inconsistent form, coming off a defeat in their previous outing. The final score was 3-0, a convincing home win that matches the actual result. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 38%. This outcome was not unexpected, as the model had predicted a 27% chance of the most likely score, 1-1. The model's call was vindicated, and it's worth noting that the suggested picks largely came in, with Under 3.5 goals hitting at 75.1% and Over 1.5 goals also hitting at 73.1%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kerry win✓ Hit
38.3%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.15
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.39
Unibet
2.30
Superbet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.18
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.21
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Cobh Ramblers win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.02
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.32
1xBet
3.16
888Sport
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kerry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.70
1.07
1.21
1.50
2.12
vs Stronger (23)
1.22
1.83
0.82
1.36
1.58
2.25
vs Similar (7)
1.57
1.29
2.00
0.67
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cobh Ramblers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.10
2.12
0.94
1.50
1.29
vs Stronger (12)
1.75
1.25
2.00
1.17
1.50
1.33
vs Similar (12)
2.00
1.00
2.38
0.88
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
@ 1.25+0.4%
Under 1.5
26.9%
@ 3.35-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.70
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.85-3.6%
Under 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.84+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.96
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Betfair
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
@ 3.04-5.3%
Under 3.5
75.1%
@ 1.31+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
888Sport
3.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.7%
@ 1.67-2.2%
No
47.3%
@ 2.03+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
No
888Sport
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Unibet
2.07
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.85+6.7%
1-0
9.3%@ 7.29+3.4%
0-0
9.3%@ 8.90+4.4%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.05+3.1%
0-1
8.3%@ 9.01+3.6%
1-2
7.6%@ 9.79+3.3%
2-0
7.0%@ 10.10+2.8%
0-2
5.8%@ 14.61+2.8%
Kerry goals ↓
Cobh Ramblers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
8.3%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.3%
14%
7.6%
3.1%
0.9%
2
7.0%
8.4%
5.1%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kerry goals (down), columns = Cobh Ramblers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Kerry is 0.57 points better than Cobh Ramblers in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Kerry is 1.00 goals better than Cobh Ramblers in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Kerry is 0.29 goals better than Cobh Ramblers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kerry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.64
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (23)
0.48
0.70
0.36
0.45
0.58
0.92
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.29
1.67
0.33
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cobh Ramblers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.47
1.25
0.56
1.14
0.36
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
0.67
1.00
0.83
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.42
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kerry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.43
0.79
0.88
1.38
vs Stronger (23)
0.74
1.13
0.45
0.91
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (7)
0.43
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cobh Ramblers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.88
0.38
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.58
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.58
0.88
0.38
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.1%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.1%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
+0.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Kerry and Cobh Ramblers have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Kerry and Cobh Ramblers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Kerry and Cobh Ramblers have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
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Longford Town
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Treaty United
Bray Wanderers
Wexford
Finn Harps