The match between Kerry and Cork City feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win. Kerry, at home against a stronger opponent, has averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded, while Cork City, on the road to a weaker side, has been prolific, netting 2.5 and conceding only 1.0 on average. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% chance. Home win probability sits at 34%, draw at 27%, and away win at 39%. The model’s suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.0%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.4%), Under 5.5 (92.7%), Away +2 handicap (84.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (83.6%), and Under 4.5 (83.4%). Kerry’s recent form shows a win after a mixed run, while Cork City remains unbeaten in five games, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kerry win
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cork City win
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kerry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.53
1.38
1.06
1.43
2.07
vs Stronger (24)
1.38
1.71
1.23
1.15
1.55
2.36
vs Similar (6)
1.50
0.83
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cork City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.83
1.40
1.33
1.07
2.33
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.88
0.50
1.00
0.75
2.75
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.94
1.44
1.44
0.89
2.44
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
3.00
1.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.9%
Under 2.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.1%
0-0
6.8%
1-0
6.7%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
Kerry goals ↓
Cork City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
7.1%
6.1%
3.0%
1.1%
1
6.7%
13%
8.6%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.6%
8.2%
6.0%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.6%
3.8%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kerry goals (down), columns = Cork City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Kerry is 0.14 points better than Cork City in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Kerry is 0.29 goals worse than Cork City in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Kerry is 0.86 goals better than Cork City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kerry or Draw
62.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Kerry + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kerry or Cork City
72.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Kerry + Cork City
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cork City
65.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Draw + Cork City
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kerry over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 1.5
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kerry, so a minus line means Kerry give that many goals of a start and Cork City receive them. At -1, Kerry must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kerry win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kerry)
Kerry -2
6.1%
Draw -2
10.5%
Cork City +2
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kerry)
Kerry -1
16.6%
Draw -1
18.3%
Cork City +1
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kerry)
Kerry +1
62.1%
Draw +1
19.2%
Cork City -1
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kerry)
Kerry +2
81.3%
Draw +2
11.6%
Cork City -2
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kerry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.81
0.31
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (24)
0.67
0.54
0.62
0.31
0.73
0.82
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.17
1.67
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cork City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.47
0.67
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.94
0.44
0.67
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kerry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.07
0.56
0.75
0.79
1.43
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
1.17
0.62
0.85
0.82
1.55
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cork City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.93
0.67
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.78
0.33
1.22
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cork City · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruairi Keating43%
Djenairo Daniels33%
Sean Maguire22%
Matthew Murray17%
Kitt Nelson17%
Alex Nolan12%
Malik Dijksteel11%
Evan McLaughlin11%
Greg Bolger5%
Joshua Fitzpatrick4%
Charlie Lyons4%
Freddie Anderson4%
Darragh Crowley3%
Fiacre Kelleher0%
Sean Murray0%
Rory Feely0%
David Odumosu0%
Tein Troost0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Benny Couto0%
Conor Brann0%
Milan Mbeng0%
Harry Nevin0%
Rio Shipston0%
Kaedyn Kamara0%
Cathal O'Sullivan0%
Matthew Kiernan0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Brody Lee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruairi Keating43%
Kaedyn Kamara40%
Matthew Kiernan38%
Milan Mbeng38%
Greg Bolger32%
Rio Shipston29%
Charlie Lyons24%
Fiacre Kelleher22%
Sean Maguire22%
Cathal O'Sullivan21%
Darragh Crowley19%
Rory Feely17%
Joshua Fitzpatrick17%
Kitt Nelson17%
Brody Lee17%
Tein Troost16%
Alex Nolan15%
Evan McLaughlin15%
Harry Nevin11%
Sean Murray11%
Djenairo Daniels8%
Freddie Anderson7%
Benny Couto6%
David Odumosu0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Conor Brann0%
Matthew Murray0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Djenairo Daniels17%
Cathal O'Sullivan16%
Benny Couto12%
Rio Shipston12%
Conor Brann9%
Evan McLaughlin7%
Milan Mbeng6%
Greg Bolger5%
Matthew Kiernan5%
Sean Maguire4%
Joshua Fitzpatrick4%
Freddie Anderson4%
Kitt Nelson3%
Darragh Crowley3%
Fiacre Kelleher0%
Sean Murray0%
Rory Feely0%
Charlie Lyons0%
Ruairi Keating0%
David Odumosu0%
Tein Troost0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Alex Nolan0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Harry Nevin0%
Kaedyn Kamara0%
Matthew Murray0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Brody Lee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ruairi Keating43%
Sean Maguire17%
Fiacre Kelleher11%
Malik Dijksteel11%
Djenairo Daniels8%
Alex Nolan8%
Evan McLaughlin7%
Sean Murray7%
Milan Mbeng6%
Benny Couto6%
Joshua Fitzpatrick4%
Greg Bolger0%
Rory Feely0%
Darragh Crowley0%
Charlie Lyons0%
David Odumosu0%
Tein Troost0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Conor Brann0%
Harry Nevin0%
Rio Shipston0%
Kaedyn Kamara0%
Matthew Murray0%
Freddie Anderson0%
Cathal O'Sullivan0%
Kitt Nelson0%
Matthew Kiernan0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Brody Lee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Kerry and Cork City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Kerry and Cork City have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Kerry and Cork City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Longford Town
Athlone Town
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Treaty United
Bray Wanderers
Wexford
Finn Harps