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Kerry vs Finn Harps Result & Analysis

Date: 24/07/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 2-1
Kerry
Kerry
Vs
42%
29%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Kerry win✓ Hit
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

KerryKerry

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W33D11D12L00D11D02L11D15L22DH·LON22/08A·DUN29/08H·COB05/09A·UCD19/09A·ATH22/09H·TRE26/09H·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.771.141.141.252.31
vs Stronger (23)1.041.960.821.361.252.50
vs Similar (7)1.711.142.330.331.251.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W10W11D23L13L14L03L11D34L01LH·ATH22/08H·TRE29/08A·LON05/09A·BRA19/09H·WEX22/09A·COB26/09A·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.631.251.500.931.79
vs Stronger (14)1.001.641.141.570.861.71
vs Similar (16)1.191.621.331.441.001.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.0%
0-0
9.3%
2-1 ✓
8.9%
2-0
7.9%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.0%
Kerry goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
01234
09.3%7.7%5.0%1.9%0.5%
110%14%7.0%2.6%0.7%
27.9%8.9%4.9%1.8%0.5%
33.7%4.1%2.3%0.9%0.2%
41.3%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kerry goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Kerry is 2.00 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Kerry is 1.43 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 0.86).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Kerry is 2.29 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 3.43).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W00D01L00D00D00D10W02L11DH·LON22/08A·DUN29/08H·COB05/09A·UCD19/09A·ATH22/09H·TRE26/09H·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.640.360.560.81
vs Stronger (23)0.430.740.360.450.501.00
vs Similar (7)1.140.141.670.000.750.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D21W00D13L00D01L13L01LH·ATH22/08H·TRE29/08A·LON05/09A·BRA19/09H·WEX22/09A·COB26/09A·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.830.380.880.430.79
vs Stronger (14)0.210.640.140.860.290.43
vs Similar (16)0.561.000.560.890.571.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L11D11D00D11D02L01L13L11DH·LON22/08A·DUN29/08H·COB05/09A·UCD19/09A·ATH22/09H·TRE26/09H·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.170.500.790.691.50
vs Stronger (23)0.611.220.450.910.751.50
vs Similar (7)0.571.000.670.330.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D02L13L01L03L10W21W00DH·ATH22/08H·TRE29/08A·LON05/09A·BRA19/09H·WEX22/09A·COB26/09A·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.880.620.501.00
vs Stronger (14)0.791.001.000.710.571.29
vs Similar (16)0.620.620.780.560.430.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Kerry and Finn Harps have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Kerry and Finn Harps have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Kerry and Finn Harps have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
KER wins
3
Draws
3
FH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kerry vs Finn Harps · H/A from KER
DateH/AGameScore
13/10/25AFinn Harps Vs KER1-1
08/08/25HKER Vs Finn Harps0-1
18/04/25AFinn Harps Vs KER4-2
14/02/25HKER Vs Finn Harps2-0
27/09/24HKER Vs Finn Harps1-1
04/07/24AFinn Harps Vs KER1-0
24/05/24HKER Vs Finn Harps2-0
22/03/24AFinn Harps Vs KER0-0

KerryKerry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/07/26AWexford Vs KER2-2
17/10/25ABray Wanderers Vs KER5-1
13/10/25AFinn Harps Vs KER1-1
10/10/25HKER Vs Wexford0-2
26/09/25HKER Vs Treaty United1-1
22/09/25AAthlone Town Vs KER0-0
19/09/25AUCD Vs KER2-1
05/09/25HKER Vs Cobh Ramblers1-1
29/08/25ADundalk Vs KER3-3
22/08/25HKER Vs Longford Town1-0

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/07/26HFH Vs Treaty United0-1
17/10/25HFH Vs UCD3-4
13/10/25HFH Vs Kerry1-1
10/10/25ADundalk Vs FH3-0
26/09/25ACobh Ramblers Vs FH4-1
22/09/25HFH Vs Wexford1-3
19/09/25ABray Wanderers Vs FH3-2
05/09/25ALongford Town Vs FH1-1
29/08/25HFH Vs Treaty United1-0
22/08/25HFH Vs Athlone Town2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kerry
Kerry
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLD0.90
HomeLWDDL1.21
AwayLDDLD0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%33%8%
AVG goals2.862.293.38
Over 1.5 %78%71%85%
Over 2.5 %46%29%62%
Over 3.5 %32%17%46%
Scored1.121.041.19
Conceded1.741.252.19
BTTS48%29%65%
Clean Sheet20%29%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.96
HomeWLDLL1.12
AwayWDLLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%29%15%
AVG goals2.682.752.62
Over 1.5 %74%75%73%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %34%29%38%
Scored1.141.330.96
Conceded1.541.421.65
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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