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Kerry vs Treaty United Result & Analysis

Date: 26/09/2025
Time: 18:45
Final 1-1
Kerry
Kerry
Vs
39%
31%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Treaty United
Treaty United
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Kerry win✗ Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Treaty United win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

KerryKerry

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L03L40W11D01L10W33D11D12L00DA·LON12/07H·UCD25/07H·ATH01/08A·TRE04/08H·FIN08/08H·LON22/08A·DUN29/08H·COB05/09A·UCD19/09A·ATH22/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.631.001.071.332.20
vs Stronger (24)1.001.750.671.251.332.25
vs Similar (6)1.831.172.330.331.332.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-721W22D23L11D02L07L01L10W03L32WH·COB11/07A·ATH25/07A·BRA01/08H·KER04/08A·LON09/08H·DUN22/08A·FIN29/08H·UCD05/09A·COB12/09H·ATH19/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.371.731.130.801.60
vs Stronger (14)1.071.431.571.430.571.43
vs Similar (13)1.461.461.831.001.141.86
vs Weaker (3)1.330.672.000.500.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.5%
0-0
11.5%
1-0
11.3%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.6%
Kerry goals ↓
Treaty United goals →
01234
011%9.3%5.6%1.9%0.5%
111%15%6.9%2.4%0.6%
27.8%8.2%4.3%1.5%0.4%
33.2%3.4%1.8%0.6%0.2%
41.0%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kerry goals (down), columns = Treaty United goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dundalk
2.19
Cobh Ramblers
1.89
Bray Wanderers
1.82
UCD
1.51
Treaty United
1.31
Wexford
1.26
Longford Town
1.25
Finn Harps
1.00
Kerry
1.00
Athlone Town
0.56
Kerry is 0.31 points worse than Treaty United in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.31).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dundalk
2.06
Cobh Ramblers
1.87
Bray Wanderers
1.74
Treaty United
1.33
UCD
1.32
Wexford
1.20
Longford Town
1.19
Finn Harps
1.17
Kerry
1.11
Athlone Town
0.81
Kerry is 0.22 goals worse than Treaty United in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dundalk
0.86
Cobh Ramblers
1.03
UCD
1.19
Treaty United
1.28
Wexford
1.37
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.58
Kerry
1.61
Longford Town
1.64
Athlone Town
1.92
Kerry is 0.33 goals worse than Treaty United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.28).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L30W00D00D00D21W00D01L00DA·LON12/07H·UCD25/07H·ATH01/08A·TRE04/08H·FIN08/08H·LON22/08A·DUN29/08H·COB05/09A·UCD19/09A·ATH22/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.600.600.470.730.73
vs Stronger (24)0.540.710.330.580.750.83
vs Similar (6)1.170.171.670.000.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L10W00D01L04L01L00D02L11DH·COB11/07A·ATH25/07A·BRA01/08H·KER04/08A·LON09/08H·DUN22/08A·FIN29/08H·UCD05/09A·COB12/09H·ATH19/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.570.400.330.130.80
vs Stronger (14)0.140.570.290.570.000.57
vs Similar (13)0.380.620.500.170.291.00
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.000.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L10W11D01L10W12L11D11D00DA·LON12/07H·UCD25/07H·ATH01/08A·TRE04/08H·FIN08/08H·LON22/08A·DUN29/08H·COB05/09A·UCD19/09A·ATH22/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.030.400.600.601.47
vs Stronger (24)0.461.040.330.670.581.42
vs Similar (6)0.671.000.670.330.671.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W13L11D01L03L00D10W01L21WH·COB11/07A·ATH25/07A·BRA01/08H·KER04/08A·LON09/08H·DUN22/08A·FIN29/08H·UCD05/09A·COB12/09H·ATH19/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.801.330.800.670.80
vs Stronger (14)0.930.861.290.860.570.86
vs Similar (13)1.080.851.330.830.860.86
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (20)
€3m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Kerry and Treaty United have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (3)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Kerry and Treaty United have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (6)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Kerry and Treaty United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (11)
€2m
CR (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
KER wins
3
Draws
3
TU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kerry vs Treaty United · H/A from KER
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/25ATreaty United Vs KER1-1
09/05/25HKER Vs Treaty United1-0
04/04/25ATreaty United Vs KER3-0
06/09/24ATreaty United Vs KER1-1
03/06/24HKER Vs Treaty United2-1
12/04/24ATreaty United Vs KER0-0
01/03/24HKER Vs Treaty United0-1
25/08/23ATreaty United Vs KER3-1

KerryKerry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/25AAthlone Town Vs KER0-0
19/09/25AUCD Vs KER2-1
05/09/25HKER Vs Cobh Ramblers1-1
29/08/25ADundalk Vs KER3-3
22/08/25HKER Vs Longford Town1-0
08/08/25HKER Vs Finn Harps0-1
04/08/25ATreaty United Vs KER1-1
01/08/25HKER Vs Athlone Town4-0
25/07/25HKER Vs UCD0-3
12/07/25ALongford Town Vs KER3-1

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/09/25HTU Vs Athlone Town3-2
12/09/25ACobh Ramblers Vs TU3-0
05/09/25HTU Vs UCD1-0
29/08/25AFinn Harps Vs TU1-0
22/08/25HTU Vs Dundalk0-7
09/08/25ALongford Town Vs TU2-0
04/08/25HTU Vs Kerry1-1
01/08/25ABray Wanderers Vs TU3-2
25/07/25AAthlone Town Vs TU2-2
11/07/25HTU Vs Cobh Ramblers2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kerry
Kerry
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLD0.98
HomeLWLWD1.40
AwayLDDLD0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%40%8%
AVG goals2.782.363.20
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %48%36%60%
Over 3.5 %28%16%40%
Scored1.141.161.12
Conceded1.641.202.08
BTTS48%36%60%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Treaty United
Treaty United
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.34
HomeWDLWW1.68
AwayDLLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals2.742.842.64
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.401.601.20
Conceded1.341.241.44
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DundalkDundalk3679
64%
2.2
7431+43
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0122.10.9
-
2Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers3872
58%
1.9
7139+32
2.9
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Bray WanderersBray Wanderers3971
59%
1.8
6855+13
3.2
79%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.4
-
4UCDUCD3756
43%
1.5
4944+5
2.5
68%
46%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
5Treaty UnitedTreaty United3951
36%
1.3
5250+2
2.6
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6Longford TownLongford Town3645
33%
1.2
4359-16
2.8
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
7WexfordWexford3544
34%
1.3
4248-6
2.6
71%
49%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Finn HarpsFinn Harps3636
22%
1.0
4257-15
2.8
75%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
9KerryKerry3636
25%
1.0
4058-18
2.7
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
10Athlone TownAthlone Town3620
8%
0.6
2969-40
2.7
75%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
Ireland: First Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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