Kerry vs Treaty United Result & Analysis

Date: 28/08/2026

Time: 18:45

Final 3-1

Kerry

39%

31%

30%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Treaty United

Ireland: First Division

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

The match between Kerry and Treaty United is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are razor thin. The probabilities are 39 % for Kerry, 31 % for a draw and 30 % for Treaty United. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5 % chance. Kerry’s home form shows they average 1.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against stronger opposition, while Treaty United, playing away against weaker opponents, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Under 5.5 (97.0 % with a 3 % edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6 %). Kerry’s recent form includes a draw, and Treaty United also come off a draw. The balance of probabilities leaves no clear favourite beyond the slight edge for a home win.

Results analysis

The model’s prediction proved spot on as Kerry secured a 3-1 win over Treaty United, extending their recent winning run. The pre-match favourite was Home win, with a 39% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the final result matched the favoured outcome. Every suggested pick performed as expected: Under 7.5 (99.7%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.1%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%) hit, Under 5.5 (97.1%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%) hit, and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%) hit. The model’s selections were largely correct, confirming the accuracy of its predictions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kerry win✓ Hit

39.4%

Avg Implied 46.6% · @ 1.94

Edge

-7.2%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

2.02

William Hil

2.00

Superbet

2.00

SBO

1.99

Pinnacle

1.97

Draw✗ Miss

30.9%

Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.31

Edge

+3.6%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.53

Bet365

3.40

Marathonbet

3.40

1xBet

3.40

10Bet

3.40

Treaty United win✗ Miss

29.7%

Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.48

Edge

+3.6%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.82

10Bet

3.75

Dafabet

3.60

1xBet

3.58

Marathonbet

3.52

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kerry

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.2

Avg scored

1.6

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.33	1.50	1.27	1.07	1.40	1.93
vs Stronger (24)	1.29	1.67	1.08	1.17	1.50	2.17
vs Similar (6)	1.50	0.83	2.00	0.67	1.00	1.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	27% (+1pp vs league)

This opponent (Treaty United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Treaty United

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.9

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.17	1.40	1.47	1.40	0.87	1.40
vs Stronger (12)	1.25	1.50	1.29	1.86	1.20	1.00
vs Similar (16)	1.12	1.38	1.71	1.00	0.67	1.67
vs Weaker (2)	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	17% (-9pp vs league)

This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

68.0%

@ 1.26-4.5%

Under 1.5

32.0%

@ 3.32+4.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

1.30

Betano

1.29

Bet365

1.28

Pinnacle

1.28

Marathonbet

1.25

Under

Pinnacle

3.61

Betfair

3.60

Unibet

3.55

Bet365

3.50

10Bet

3.35

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

40.1%

@ 1.87-9.4%

Under 2.5

59.9%

@ 1.83+9.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

SBO

1.99

Bet365

1.95

10Bet

1.95

Pinnacle

1.93

Betano

1.91

Under

Unibet

1.94

Pinnacle

1.91

Bet365

1.85

Betfair

1.85

1xBet

1.84

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

19.9%

@ 3.07-9.8%

Under 3.5

80.1%

@ 1.30+9.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

3.40

Betfair

3.30

Pinnacle

3.27

Bet365

3.25

Superbet

3.05

Under

Unibet

1.35

Pinnacle

1.34

Bet365

1.33

10Bet

1.30

Betfair

1.29

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

47.5%

@ 1.71-5.7%

52.5%

@ 1.95+5.7%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.80

William Hil

1.75

10Bet

1.75

Superbet

1.74

Betfair

1.73

Unibet

2.12

Betfair

2.00

1xBet

1.98

Superbet

1.97

Marathonbet

1.95

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

14.5%@ 5.97+7.4%

0-0

11.4%@ 8.56+6.5%

1-0

11.3%@ 6.69+4.9%

0-1

9.3%@ 9.57+4.8%

2-1

8.2%@ 7.63+2.6%

2-0

7.8%@ 8.52+2.8%

1-2

6.9%@ 10.91+3.0%

0-2

5.5%@ 17.16+3.1%

Kerry goals ↓

	Treaty United goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	11%	9.3%	5.5%	1.9%	0.5%
1	11%	14%	6.9%	2.4%	0.6%
2	7.8%	8.2%	4.3%	1.5%	0.4%
3	3.3%	3.4%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%
4	1.0%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kerry goals (down), columns = Treaty United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Kerry

2.00

Cork City

1.86

Longford Town

1.86

Athlone Town

1.86

UCD

1.57

Treaty United

1.43

Cobh Ramblers

1.43

Bray Wanderers

1.29

Wexford

1.00

Finn Harps

0.00

Kerry is 0.57 points better than Treaty United in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.43).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Cork City

2.57

Longford Town

2.57

Bray Wanderers

2.43

UCD

2.29

Kerry

2.29

Athlone Town

1.57

Cobh Ramblers

1.29

Treaty United

1.14

Wexford

1.00

Finn Harps

0.86

Kerry is 1.14 goals better than Treaty United in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Athlone Town

1.00

Kerry

1.14

Treaty United

1.43

Cobh Ramblers

1.43

Longford Town

1.57

Wexford

1.86

Bray Wanderers

1.86

Cork City

2.00

UCD

2.29

Finn Harps

3.43

Kerry is 0.29 goals better than Treaty United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Kerry or Draw✓ Hit

70.3%

Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.24

Edge

-3.3%

39%

31%

30%

covers Kerry + Draw

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.29

Betano

1.26

BetVictor

1.25

Bet365

1.25

Betfair

1.25

Kerry or Treaty United✓ Hit

69.1%

Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.23

Edge

-4.9%

39%

31%

30%

covers Kerry + Treaty United

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.30

Superbet

1.28

Betano

1.27

Betfair

1.25

Bet365

1.25

Draw or Treaty United✗ Miss

60.6%

Avg Implied 52.3% · @ 1.74

Edge

+8.2%

39%

31%

30%

covers Draw + Treaty United

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.80

Bet365

1.80

10Bet

1.80

SBO

1.80

William Hil

1.75

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Kerry over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

71.2%

@ 1.18-5.8%

Under

28.8%

@ 3.96+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.22

Pinnacle

1.20

10Bet

1.20

Superbet

1.18

Betfair

1.17

Under

Betfair

4.50

1xBet

4.20

Pinnacle

4.10

10Bet

4.00

Bet365

4.00

Kerry over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

35.3%

@ 1.95-11.6%

Under

64.7%

@ 1.73+11.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.02

Bet365

2.00

Betano

2.00

10Bet

2.00

Superbet

2.00

Under

Pinnacle

1.80

Marathonbet

1.76

1xBet

1.76

Unibet

1.75

Bet365

1.73

Kerry over/under 2.5Actual: Over

Over

13.0%

@ 3.96-10.0%

Under

87.0%

@ 1.18+10.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

4.33

Pinnacle

4.21

10Bet

4.20

Betfair

4.00

Marathonbet

3.94

Under

Pinnacle

1.21

Bet365

1.20

Betfair

1.20

Marathonbet

1.18

1xBet

1.18

Kerry over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

3.8%

@ 9.00-6.6%

Under

96.2%

@ 1.04+6.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

9.50

Bet365

8.50

Under

Bet365

1.05

Betfair

1.04

Treaty United over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

64.9%

@ 1.41-0.2%

Under

35.1%

@ 2.62+0.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.44

10Bet

1.44

Betano

1.44

Pinnacle

1.43

1xBet

1.41

Under

Betfair

2.88

Pinnacle

2.80

Superbet

2.62

Bet365

2.62

Marathonbet

2.60

Treaty United over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

28.1%

@ 2.93-3.1%

Under

71.9%

@ 1.33+3.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

3.25

Pinnacle

3.17

10Bet

3.10

Betfair

3.00

Marathonbet

2.98

Under

Unibet

1.38

Bet365

1.33

Betfair

1.33

Superbet

1.33

Pinnacle

1.33

Treaty United over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

8.9%

@ 7.26-3.7%

Under

91.1%

@ 1.05+3.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

7.50

Bet365

7.50

Marathonbet

7.40

1xBet

7.40

Superbet

6.50

Under

Bet365

1.07

Betfair

1.06

Superbet

1.04

1xBet

1.03

Marathonbet

1.03

Treaty United over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

2.2%

@ 13.00-5.0%

Under

97.8%

@ 1.01+5.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

13.00

Under

Bet365

1.01

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Kerry, so a minus line means Kerry give that many goals of a start and Treaty United receive them. At -1, Kerry must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kerry win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Kerry)Actual: Draw

Kerry -2

6.1%

@ 7.71-5.5%

Draw -2

11.8%

@ 5.41-4.7%

Treaty United +2

82.0%

@ 1.25+10.2%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

8.50

Bet365

8.00

10Bet

7.50

Marathonbet

6.85

Draw

Bet365

5.50

Betfair

5.50

Marathonbet

5.40

10Bet

5.25

Away

Bet365

1.28

10Bet

1.25

Marathonbet

1.24

Betfair

1.22

Handicap -1 (Kerry)Actual: Kerry

Kerry -1

18.0%

@ 3.42-7.4%

Draw -1

21.5%

@ 3.53-3.2%

Treaty United +1

60.6%

@ 1.74+10.6%

Best 5 market prices

Home

10Bet

3.60

Betfair

3.60

Bet365

3.50

Marathonbet

3.34

Unibet

3.05

Draw

Betfair

3.75

Bet365

3.75

10Bet

3.50

Marathonbet

3.48

Unibet

3.15

Away

10Bet

1.80

Bet365

1.80

Marathonbet

1.74

Betfair

1.73

Unibet

1.64

Handicap +1 (Kerry)Actual: Kerry

Kerry +1

70.3%

@ 1.25+0.4%

Draw +1

17.8%

@ 4.83-0.2%

Treaty United -1

11.8%

@ 7.22-0.2%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.28

10Bet

1.25

Unibet

1.23

Marathonbet

1.22

Draw

10Bet

5.25

Marathonbet

5.05

Bet365

5.00

Unibet

4.00

Away

Bet365

8.00

10Bet

8.00

Marathonbet

7.50

Unibet

5.40

Handicap +2 (Kerry)Actual: Kerry

Kerry +2

88.2%

@ 1.08+1.2%

Draw +2

8.4%

@ 11.00-0.2%

Treaty United -2

3.5%

@ 21.00-1.0%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.08

Draw

Bet365

11.00

Away

Bet365

21.00

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kerry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

0.9

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.70	0.47	0.80	0.33	0.60	0.60
vs Stronger (24)	0.62	0.54	0.58	0.33	0.67	0.75
vs Similar (6)	1.00	0.17	1.67	0.33	0.33	0.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	63% (+38pp vs league)

This opponent (Treaty United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Treaty United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.4

Avg scored

0.3

Avg conceded

0.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.23	0.47	0.33	0.47	0.13	0.47
vs Stronger (12)	0.17	0.58	0.29	0.86	0.00	0.20
vs Similar (16)	0.31	0.44	0.43	0.14	0.22	0.67
vs Weaker (2)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	70% (+44pp vs league)

This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

65.6%

@ 1.36-1.5%

Under 0.5

34.4%

@ 2.77+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.40

Betano

1.40

Pinnacle

1.37

10Bet

1.36

Marathonbet

1.36

Under

Pinnacle

3.07

Betfair

3.00

William Hil

2.90

10Bet

2.88

1xBet

2.78

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

30.0%

@ 2.64-4.5%

Under 1.5

70.0%

@ 1.40+4.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.86

Bet365

2.75

Betfair

2.75

1xBet

2.70

William Hil

2.70

Under

Pinnacle

1.42

10Bet

1.42

Unibet

1.42

Bet365

1.40

Betfair

1.40

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

10.2%

@ 6.12-4.6%

Under 2.5

89.8%

@ 1.07+4.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

7.00

Betfair

6.50

Bet365

6.50

Marathonbet

6.40

1xBet

6.40

Under

Bet365

1.10

Betfair

1.08

William Hil

1.08

Superbet

1.06

1xBet

1.05

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Kerry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

47.4%

@ 1.85-2.7%

Under

52.6%

@ 1.85+2.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.90

1xBet

1.85

Pinnacle

1.85

Superbet

1.85

10Bet

1.83

Under

Pinnacle

1.93

1xBet

1.85

10Bet

1.85

Superbet

1.85

Marathonbet

1.84

Kerry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

12.2%

@ 5.23-5.4%

Under

87.8%

@ 1.12+5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

5.50

Marathonbet

5.20

10Bet

5.00

Under

10Bet

1.13

1xBet

1.11

Marathonbet

1.11

Kerry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

3.0%

@ 15.00-3.3%

Under

97.0%

@ 1.01+3.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

15.00

Under

10Bet

1.01

Treaty United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

38.0%

@ 2.38-0.9%

Under

62.0%

@ 1.51+0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.51

Betano

2.42

Marathonbet

2.38

Superbet

2.35

10Bet

2.30

Under

10Bet

1.55

1xBet

1.53

Pinnacle

1.52

Betano

1.50

Superbet

1.50

Treaty United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

9.0%

@ 8.50-1.9%

Under

91.0%

@ 1.04+1.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

9.00

Marathonbet

8.50

10Bet

8.00

Under

10Bet

1.05

1xBet

1.04

Marathonbet

1.02

Treaty United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

1.3%

Under

98.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kerry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.8

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

1.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.63	1.03	0.47	0.73	0.80	1.33
vs Stronger (24)	0.67	1.12	0.50	0.83	0.83	1.42
vs Similar (6)	0.50	0.67	0.33	0.33	0.67	1.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	33% (+8pp vs league)

This opponent (Treaty United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Treaty United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.93	0.93	1.13	0.93	0.73	0.93
vs Stronger (12)	1.08	0.92	1.00	1.00	1.20	0.80
vs Similar (16)	0.81	0.94	1.29	0.86	0.44	1.00
vs Weaker (2)	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	27% (+1pp vs league)

This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

75.2%

@ 1.22+0.4%

Under 0.5

24.8%

@ 3.64-0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.25

William Hil

1.25

Superbet

1.21

1xBet

1.20

Marathonbet

1.20

Under

Bet365

3.75

1xBet

3.70

Marathonbet

3.70

Superbet

3.55

William Hil

3.50

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

38.8%

@ 2.09-5.5%

Under 1.5

61.2%

@ 1.66+5.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

2.15

Bet365

2.10

Superbet

2.10

1xBet

2.07

Marathonbet

2.07

Under

Bet365

1.67

1xBet

1.67

Betano

1.67

Marathonbet

1.67

Superbet

1.64

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

15.2%

@ 4.39-5.7%

Under 2.5

84.8%

@ 1.16+5.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

4.80

Bet365

4.50

Marathonbet

4.25

1xBet

4.25

Superbet

4.15

Under

Bet365

1.18

William Hil

1.17

1xBet

1.15

Superbet

1.15

Marathonbet

1.15

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Kerry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

53.3%

@ 1.60-4.6%

Under

46.7%

@ 2.20+4.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.61

10Bet

1.60

1xBet

1.58

Under

1xBet

2.24

10Bet

2.20

Superbet

2.15

Kerry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over

Over

15.8%

@ 3.80-8.4%

Under

84.2%

@ 1.21+8.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

3.95

Marathonbet

3.74

1xBet

3.70

Under

1xBet

1.22

Marathonbet

1.21

10Bet

1.20

Kerry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

3.3%

@ 10.00-6.0%

Under

96.7%

@ 1.03+6.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

10.00

Under

10Bet

1.03

Treaty United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

45.2%

@ 2.01-0.7%

Under

54.8%

@ 1.71+0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

2.05

Superbet

2.00

Marathonbet

2.00

1xBet

2.00

Under

Superbet

1.72

1xBet

1.72

10Bet

1.70

Marathonbet

1.69

Treaty United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

12.7%

@ 6.30-1.9%

Under

87.3%

@ 1.07+1.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

6.50

Marathonbet

6.20

1xBet

6.20

Under

10Bet

1.08

1xBet

1.07

Marathonbet

1.07

Treaty United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.3%

@ 26.00-1.5%

Under

97.7%

@ 1.01+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

26.00

Under

10Bet

1.01

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 7.5	99.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	99.1%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	+5.4%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	98.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	97.8%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.0%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	97.7%	1.01	10Bet 1.01	-	-	-	-	+1.5%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	97.1%	1.03	Bet365 1.04	1xBet 1.03	Betfair 1.01	-	-	+5.6%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	97.0%	1.01	10Bet 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.3%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	96.7%	1.03	10Bet 1.03	-	-	-	-	+6.0%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	96.2%	1.04	Bet365 1.05	Betfair 1.04	-	-	-	+6.6%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5	91.7%	1.09	Pinnacle 1.12	Bet365 1.11	10Bet 1.10	1xBet 1.08	Superbet 1.08	+7.6%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals	91.1%	1.05	Bet365 1.07	Betfair 1.06	Superbet 1.04	1xBet 1.03	Marathonbet 1.03	+3.7%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	91.0%	1.04	10Bet 1.05	1xBet 1.04	Marathonbet 1.02	-	-	+1.9%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	89.8%	1.07	Bet365 1.10	Betfair 1.08	William Hil 1.08	Superbet 1.06	1xBet 1.05	+4.6%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	88.2%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+1.2%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	87.8%	1.12	10Bet 1.13	1xBet 1.11	Marathonbet 1.11	-	-	+5.4%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	87.3%	1.07	10Bet 1.08	1xBet 1.07	Marathonbet 1.07	-	-	+1.9%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals	87.0%	1.18	Pinnacle 1.21	Bet365 1.20	Betfair 1.20	Marathonbet 1.18	1xBet 1.18	+10.0%	✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals	84.8%	1.16	Bet365 1.18	William Hil 1.17	1xBet 1.15	Superbet 1.15	Marathonbet 1.15	+5.7%	✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals	84.2%	1.21	1xBet 1.22	Marathonbet 1.21	10Bet 1.20	-	-	+8.4%	✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap	82.0%	1.25	Bet365 1.28	10Bet 1.25	Marathonbet 1.24	Betfair 1.22	-	+10.2%	✗ Miss
Under 3.5	80.1%	1.30	Unibet 1.35	Pinnacle 1.34	Bet365 1.33	10Bet 1.30	Betfair 1.29	+9.8%	✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals	75.2%	1.22	Bet365 1.25	William Hil 1.25	Superbet 1.21	1xBet 1.20	Marathonbet 1.20	+0.4%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals	71.9%	1.33	Unibet 1.38	Bet365 1.33	Betfair 1.33	Superbet 1.33	Pinnacle 1.33	+3.1%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals	71.2%	1.18	Bet365 1.22	Pinnacle 1.20	10Bet 1.20	Superbet 1.18	Betfair 1.17	-5.8%	✓ Hit
Home or Draw	70.3%	1.24	William Hil 1.29	Betano 1.26	BetVictor 1.25	Bet365 1.25	Betfair 1.25	-3.3%	✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap	70.3%	1.25	Bet365 1.28	10Bet 1.25	Unibet 1.23	Marathonbet 1.22	-	+0.4%	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

FH (2)

€0m

CR (2)

€0m

TU (1)

€0m

CC (2)

€0m

BW (1)

€0m

KER (1)

€0m

AT (1)

€0m

Kerry and Treaty United have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

TU (1)

€0m

CC (2)

€0m

FH (1)

€0m

AT (1)

€0m

BW (0)

€0m

CR (0)

€0m

KER (0)

€0m

Kerry and Treaty United have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

FH (1)

€0m

BW (1)

€0m

KER (1)

€0m

CC (0)

€0m

AT (0)

€0m

CR (0)

€0m

TU (0)

€0m

Kerry and Treaty United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CR (2)

€0m

CC (0)

€0m

BW (0)

€0m

AT (0)

€0m

FH (0)

€0m

TU (0)

€0m

KER (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

KER wins

Draws

TU wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kerry vs Treaty United · H/A from KER

Date	H/A	Game	Score
26/09/25	H	KER Vs Treaty United	1-1
04/08/25	A	Treaty United Vs KER	1-1
09/05/25	H	KER Vs Treaty United	1-0
04/04/25	A	Treaty United Vs KER	3-0
06/09/24	A	Treaty United Vs KER	1-1
03/06/24	H	KER Vs Treaty United	2-1
12/04/24	A	Treaty United Vs KER	0-0
01/03/24	H	KER Vs Treaty United	0-1

Kerry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
21/08/26	H	KER Vs UCD	1-1
07/08/26	A	Cork City Vs KER	3-1
03/08/26	H	KER Vs Cobh Ramblers	3-0
31/07/26	A	Bray Wanderers Vs KER	0-4
24/07/26	H	KER Vs Finn Harps	2-1
10/07/26	A	Wexford Vs KER	2-2
17/10/25	A	Bray Wanderers Vs KER	5-1
13/10/25	A	Finn Harps Vs KER	1-1
10/10/25	H	KER Vs Wexford	0-2
26/09/25	H	KER Vs Treaty United	1-1

Treaty United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
21/08/26	H	TU Vs Cork City	2-2
07/08/26	A	Cobh Ramblers Vs TU	2-0
03/08/26	A	UCD Vs TU	1-2
31/07/26	H	TU Vs Longford Town	0-1
24/07/26	H	TU Vs Athlone Town	2-1
10/07/26	A	Finn Harps Vs TU	0-1
02/11/25	A	Bray Wanderers Vs TU	1-0
28/10/25	A	Cobh Ramblers Vs TU	1-0
24/10/25	H	TU Vs Cobh Ramblers	1-0
17/10/25	A	Wexford Vs TU	0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kerry

Ireland: First Division

Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWWLD	1.04
Home	DLWWD	1.40
Away	DLDWL	0.68

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	26%	40%	12%
AVG goals	2.78	2.20	3.36
Over 1.5 %	78%	72%	84%
Over 2.5 %	48%	32%	64%
Over 3.5 %	30%	12%	48%
Scored	1.18	1.12	1.24
Conceded	1.60	1.08	2.12
BTTS	48%	32%	64%
Clean Sheet	24%	32%	16%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Treaty United

Ireland: First Division

Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLWLD	1.44
Home	WWWLD	1.83
Away	LLWWL	1.08

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	54%	27%
AVG goals	2.64	2.96	2.35
Over 1.5 %	74%	71%	77%
Over 2.5 %	50%	62%	38%
Over 3.5 %	26%	38%	15%
Scored	1.40	1.71	1.12
Conceded	1.24	1.25	1.23
BTTS	50%	58%	42%
Clean Sheet	24%	25%	23%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Kerry	7	14	57%	2.0	16	8	+8	3.4	100%	86%	57%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.3	1.1	-
2	Longford Town	7	13	57%	1.9	18	11	+7	4.1	86%	86%	57%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.6	1.6	-
3	Cork City	7	13	57%	1.9	18	14	+4	4.6	100%	86%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.6	2.0	-
4	Athlone Town	7	13	57%	1.9	11	7	+4	2.6	86%	57%	14%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.6	1.0	-
5	UCD	7	11	43%	1.6	16	16	+0	4.6	86%	71%	57%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.3	2.3	-
6	Cobh Ramblers	7	10	43%	1.4	9	10	-1	2.7	86%	57%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.4	-
7	Treaty United	7	10	43%	1.4	8	10	-2	2.6	71%	57%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.1	1.4	-
8	Bray Wanderers	7	9	43%	1.3	17	13	+4	4.3	100%	100%	57%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.4	1.9	-
9	Wexford	7	7	29%	1.0	7	13	-6	2.9	86%	57%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.9	-
10	Finn Harps	7	0	0%	0.0	6	24	-18	4.3	86%	86%	57%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	3.4	-

Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

← all matches

Kerry vs Treaty United Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kerry

Treaty United

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kerry

Treaty United

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kerry

Treaty United

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Kerry

Treaty United

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature