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Kerry vs UCD Result & Analysis

Date: 10/05/2024
Time: 18:45
Final 1-2
Kerry
Kerry
Vs
18%
25%
58%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
UCD
UCD
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Kerry win✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UCD win✓ Hit
57.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

KerryKerry

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D11D30W00D12L02L01L12LH·COB15/03A·FIN22/03H·WEX29/03A·UCD01/04H·LON05/04A·TRE12/04H·ATH19/04A·BRA26/04H·COR03/05A·LON06/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.701.071.730.671.67
vs Stronger (24)0.881.751.081.690.641.82
vs Similar (6)0.831.501.002.000.751.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCDUCD

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W21W11D11D00D32W20W10W12LH·ATH15/03A·COB22/03A·LON29/03H·KER01/04A·FIN05/04H·COR12/04A·WEX19/04A·TRE26/04H·LON03/05H·COB06/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.000.751.811.072.21
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (21)0.712.520.642.270.802.80
vs Weaker (8)1.500.881.251.001.750.75
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
0-2
10.5%
0-1
10.2%
1-2 ✓
9.9%
0-0
7.1%
0-3
6.5%
1-3
6.1%
2-1
5.0%
Kerry goals ↓
UCD goals →
01234
07.1%10%10%6.5%3.0%
14.7%12%9.9%6.1%2.8%
22.7%5.0%4.7%2.9%1.3%
30.9%1.6%1.5%0.9%0.4%
40.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kerry goals (down), columns = UCD goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Cork City
2.17
UCD
1.55
Athlone Town
1.54
Wexford
1.50
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.22
Treaty United
1.22
Longford Town
0.81
Kerry
0.75
Kerry is 0.80 points worse than UCD in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.55).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
1.78
Wexford
1.61
Bray Wanderers
1.49
Athlone Town
1.38
UCD
1.26
Longford Town
1.14
Cobh Ramblers
1.14
Treaty United
1.14
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.94
Kerry is 0.32 goals worse than UCD in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.26).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Cork City
0.64
UCD
1.03
Treaty United
1.19
Finn Harps
1.19
Bray Wanderers
1.28
Athlone Town
1.31
Wexford
1.50
Kerry
1.53
Cobh Ramblers
1.56
Longford Town
1.78
Kerry is 0.50 goals worse than UCD in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.03).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W01L20W00D11D00D01L02LH·COB15/03A·FIN22/03H·WEX29/03A·UCD01/04H·LON05/04A·TRE12/04H·ATH19/04A·BRA26/04H·COR03/05A·LON06/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.600.600.470.200.73
vs Stronger (24)0.420.670.620.460.180.91
vs Similar (6)0.330.330.500.500.250.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCDUCD

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W10W01L00D21W10W10W11DH·ATH15/03A·COB22/03A·LON29/03H·KER01/04A·FIN05/04H·COR12/04A·WEX19/04A·TRE26/04H·LON03/05H·COB06/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.380.810.430.79
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (21)0.241.050.181.090.301.00
vs Weaker (8)0.880.251.000.250.750.25
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D01L10W10W00D01L02L00D10WH·COB15/03A·FIN22/03H·WEX29/03A·UCD01/04H·LON05/04A·TRE12/04H·ATH19/04A·BRA26/04H·COR03/05A·LON06/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.100.471.270.470.93
vs Stronger (24)0.461.080.461.230.450.91
vs Similar (6)0.501.170.501.500.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCDUCD

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W11D01L10W00D11D10W00D01LH·ATH15/03A·COB22/03A·LON29/03H·KER01/04A·FIN05/04H·COR12/04A·WEX19/04A·TRE26/04H·LON03/05H·COB06/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.200.381.000.641.43
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (21)0.481.480.451.180.501.80
vs Weaker (8)0.620.620.250.751.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.0%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
KER wins
1
Draws
0
UCD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kerry vs UCD · H/A from KER
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/24AUCD Vs KER1-1

KerryKerry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/24ALongford Town Vs KER2-1
03/05/24HKER Vs Cork City0-1
26/04/24ABray Wanderers Vs KER2-0
19/04/24HKER Vs Athlone Town1-2
12/04/24ATreaty United Vs KER0-0
05/04/24HKER Vs Longford Town3-0
01/04/24AUCD Vs KER1-1
29/03/24HKER Vs Wexford1-1
22/03/24AFinn Harps Vs KER0-0
15/03/24HKER Vs Cobh Ramblers1-1

UCDUCD

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/24HUCD Vs Cobh Ramblers1-2
03/05/24HUCD Vs Longford Town1-0
26/04/24ATreaty United Vs UCD0-2
19/04/24AWexford Vs UCD2-3
12/04/24HUCD Vs Cork City0-0
05/04/24AFinn Harps Vs UCD1-1
01/04/24HUCD Vs Kerry1-1
29/03/24ALongford Town Vs UCD1-2
22/03/24ACobh Ramblers Vs UCD1-2
15/03/24HUCD Vs Athlone Town3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kerry
Kerry
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.38
HomeDDWLL0.40
AwayDDDLL0.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %4%4%4%
AVG goals2.962.962.96
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %54%52%56%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored0.800.840.76
Conceded2.162.122.20
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners---
Cards---
UCD
UCD
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL0.70
HomeWDDWL0.68
AwayWWDWW0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%16%20%
AVG goals2.942.523.36
Over 1.5 %80%68%92%
Over 2.5 %60%52%68%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored0.760.680.84
Conceded2.181.842.52
BTTS46%40%52%
Clean Sheet14%24%4%
Corners10.079.0011.29
Cards4.073.624.57

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Cork CityCork City3678
61%
2.2
6423+41
2.4
67%
33%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
2Athlone TownAthlone Town3960
41%
1.5
5451+3
2.7
69%
54%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
3UCDUCD3859
39%
1.6
4839+9
2.3
71%
42%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
4WexfordWexford3857
39%
1.5
6157+4
3.1
87%
63%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
5Bray WanderersBray Wanderers3955
38%
1.4
5850+8
2.8
74%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
6Finn HarpsFinn Harps3646
33%
1.3
3943-4
2.3
69%
28%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United3644
31%
1.2
4143-2
2.3
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
8Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers3644
33%
1.2
4156-15
2.7
83%
56%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
9Longford TownLongford Town3629
17%
0.8
4164-23
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
10KerryKerry3627
14%
0.8
3455-21
2.5
81%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Ireland: First Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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