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Kerry vs Wexford Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/09/2026
Time: 18:45
Kerry
Kerry
Vs
46%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Wexford
Wexford
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Kerry, riding a win after a 3-1 triumph over Treaty United, is favoured to lift the trophy, with a 46% chance of victory, 28% for a draw and 26% for Wexford. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, but the most probable total is two, with a 26% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.2% probability. Kerry’s home form against stronger opposition shows 1.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded, while Wexford’s away record against weaker sides is 1.1 scored and 1.1 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (94.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.8%), Home +2 handicap (89.4%) and Under 4.5 (86.7%). These picks reflect the high probability of a low-scoring, home-dominated contest.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kerry win
46.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wexford win
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KerryKerry

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L11D15L22D21W40W30W13L11D31WH·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07H·FIN24/07A·BRA31/07H·COB03/08A·COR07/08H·UCD21/08H·TRE28/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.531.381.061.432.07
vs Stronger (24)1.381.711.231.151.552.36
vs Similar (6)1.500.832.000.671.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

WexfordWexford

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L20W02L22D21W01L21W14L02L02LH·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07A·LON25/07A·COB31/07H·BRA03/08A·UCD07/08H·ATH21/08A·COR28/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.571.071.641.121.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.902.000.501.751.172.17
vs Weaker (20)1.201.351.301.601.101.10
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.2%
Kerry goals ↓
Wexford goals →
01234
08.1%6.5%4.3%1.6%0.4%
19.6%13%6.7%2.5%0.7%
28.4%9.3%5.2%1.9%0.5%
34.4%4.9%2.7%1.0%0.3%
41.7%1.9%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kerry goals (down), columns = Wexford goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Kerry is 1.00 points better than Wexford in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Kerry is 1.29 goals better than Wexford in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Kerry is 0.71 goals better than Wexford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kerry or Draw
74.0%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Kerry + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kerry or Wexford
72.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Kerry + Wexford
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Wexford
53.6%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Draw + Wexford
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kerry over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 0.5
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Kerry, so a minus line means Kerry give that many goals of a start and Wexford receive them. At -1, Kerry must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kerry win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kerry)
Kerry -2
9.9%
Draw -2
14.4%
Wexford +2
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kerry)
Kerry -1
24.4%
Draw -1
22.0%
Wexford +1
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kerry)
Kerry +1
74.0%
Draw +1
15.4%
Wexford -1
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kerry)
Kerry +2
89.4%
Draw +2
7.4%
Wexford -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L11D21W10W30W10W01L10WH·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07H·FIN24/07A·BRA31/07H·COB03/08A·COR07/08H·UCD21/08H·TRE28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.470.810.310.640.64
vs Stronger (24)0.670.540.620.310.730.82
vs Similar (6)1.000.171.670.330.330.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

WexfordWexford

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D11D10W01L21W02L01L00DH·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07A·LON25/07A·COB31/07H·BRA03/08A·UCD07/08H·ATH21/08A·COR28/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.501.000.250.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.300.900.500.750.171.00
vs Weaker (20)0.400.900.501.100.300.70
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KerryKerry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L13L11D00D30W00D03L10W21WH·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07H·FIN24/07A·BRA31/07H·COB03/08A·COR07/08H·UCD21/08H·TRE28/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.070.560.750.791.43
vs Stronger (24)0.711.170.620.850.821.55
vs Similar (6)0.500.670.330.330.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

WexfordWexford

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W02L11D11D00D00D12L01L02LH·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07A·LON25/07A·COB31/07H·BRA03/08A·UCD07/08H·ATH21/08A·COR28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.670.570.640.880.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.601.100.001.001.001.17
vs Weaker (20)0.800.450.800.500.800.40
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.0%-------
Away under 3.5 goals97.3%-------
Under 5.594.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals92.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals89.8%-------
Home +2 handicap89.4%-------
Under 4.586.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals79.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals79.0%-------
Over 1.575.8%-------
Away +2 handicap75.6%-------
Home or Draw74.0%-------
Home +1 handicap74.0%-------
Home or Away72.4%-------
Under 3.572.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
KER wins
3
Draws
4
WEX wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kerry vs Wexford · H/A from KER
DateH/AGameScore
10/07/26AWexford Vs KER2-2
10/10/25HKER Vs Wexford0-2
27/06/25AWexford Vs KER4-3
16/05/25HKER Vs Wexford1-1
21/03/25AWexford Vs KER1-2
11/10/24AWexford Vs KER4-0
28/06/24HKER Vs Wexford1-1
17/05/24AWexford Vs KER2-0

KerryKerry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HKER Vs Treaty United3-1
21/08/26HKER Vs UCD1-1
07/08/26ACork City Vs KER3-1
03/08/26HKER Vs Cobh Ramblers3-0
31/07/26ABray Wanderers Vs KER0-4
24/07/26HKER Vs Finn Harps2-1
10/07/26AWexford Vs KER2-2
17/10/25ABray Wanderers Vs KER5-1
13/10/25AFinn Harps Vs KER1-1
10/10/25HKER Vs Wexford0-2

WexfordWexford

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ACork City Vs WEX2-0
21/08/26HWEX Vs Athlone Town0-2
07/08/26AUCD Vs WEX4-1
03/08/26HWEX Vs Bray Wanderers2-1
31/07/26ACobh Ramblers Vs WEX1-0
25/07/26ALongford Town Vs WEX1-2
10/07/26HWEX Vs Kerry2-2
17/10/25HWEX Vs Treaty United0-2
10/10/25AKerry Vs WEX0-2
05/10/25HWEX Vs UCD0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kerry
Kerry
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.10
HomeLWWDW1.52
AwayDLDWL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%44%12%
AVG goals2.842.323.36
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %50%36%64%
Over 3.5 %32%16%48%
Scored1.241.241.24
Conceded1.601.082.12
BTTS50%36%64%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Wexford
Wexford
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.24
HomeLLDWL1.32
AwayWWLLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.602.442.76
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %50%44%56%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.161.241.08
Conceded1.441.201.68
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet22%32%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
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Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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