Khan Tengri are the clear favourites, with a 59% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 18% for an away victory. The model expects a total of three goals, most likely a 1-1 scoreline at 11.1%. Khan Tengri have been solid at home against weaker opposition, scoring an average of one goal and conceding one, while Aktobe Jas, playing away against stronger teams, average 0.82 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 80.7% probability that the match will see over 1.5 goals. The predicted outcome is a home win, and the single most likely score is 1-1. The final score last time was 6-2, a home win, and Khan Tengri are on a two-game winning streak after a 3-0 victory over Astana II. Aktobe Jas also have a two-game winning run, having beaten Jaiyq 1-0. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, carries an 80.7% chance.
Results analysis
Khan Tengri’s 2-game winning streak continued as they beat Aktobe Jas 6-2, confirming the model’s home win pick with a probability of 59%. The favourite’s call was correct, and the final score matched the actual result of a home victory. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.7% chance, hit as the match produced six goals. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals was not reached, but the overall outcome aligned with the forecast. Both sides finished the game with the same scoreline as the model’s predictions, underscoring the accuracy of the selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Khan Tengri win✓ Hit
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas win✗ Miss
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.27
1.07
1.20
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.27
1.15
1.23
1.31
1.31
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.43
1.53
2.13
0.93
2.73
vs Stronger (21)
0.95
2.67
1.10
2.30
0.82
3.00
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.89
2.40
1.80
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.9%
1-0
9.1%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
6.5%
0-0
6.1%
1-2
5.1%
Khan Tengri goals ↓
Aktobe Jas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.1%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.1%
11%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.9%
10.0%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.5%
6.5%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Khan Tengri goals (down), columns = Aktobe Jas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Okzhetpes
2.28
Ulytau
2.17
Kaspiy
2.10
Sport Academy Kairat
2.07
Khan Tengri
1.96
Ekibastuz
1.82
Zhetisay
1.76
Taraz
1.46
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.36
SD Family
1.11
Akzhayik
0.86
Kaisar II
0.79
Yassy Turkistan
0.76
Arys
0.68
Kyran
0.43
Aktobe Jas
0.41
Khan Tengri is 1.55 points better than Aktobe Jas in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 0.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sport Academy Kairat
2.66
Ulytau
2.41
Kaspiy
2.28
Okzhetpes
2.14
Khan Tengri
1.96
Ekibastuz
1.93
SD Family
1.89
Zhetisay
1.76
Taraz
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.11
Arys
1.00
Yassy Turkistan
0.97
Aktobe Jas
0.86
Akzhayik
0.86
Kaisar II
0.82
Kyran
0.57
Khan Tengri is 1.10 goals better than Aktobe Jas in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 0.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Okzhetpes
0.55
Ulytau
1.00
Kaspiy
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.07
Taraz
1.21
Zhetisay
1.28
Ekibastuz
1.29
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.32
Sport Academy Kairat
1.52
Akzhayik
1.71
Kaisar II
2.00
Arys
2.29
SD Family
2.29
Yassy Turkistan
2.45
Kyran
2.57
Aktobe Jas
2.59
Khan Tengri is 1.51 goals better than Aktobe Jas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 2.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.65
0.38
0.69
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.20
0.56
1.25
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (22)
0.50
1.36
0.73
1.36
0.27
1.36
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.75
0.20
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.62
0.77
0.54
0.92
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.30
0.88
1.06
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (22)
0.41
1.41
0.27
1.18
0.55
1.64
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.00
2.20
0.80
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Okzhetpes
Ulytau
Kaspiy
Sport Academy Kairat
Ekibastuz
Zhetisay
Taraz
Altay (Kazakhstan)
SD Family
Akzhayik
Kaisar II
Yassy Turkistan
Arys
Kyran