Khan Tengri are the clear favourites, with the model giving them a 69% chance of victory, 18% for a draw and 13% for Aktobe Jas to win. The prediction of a home win is reinforced by Khan Tengri’s dominant home form - they average six goals scored and two conceded against weaker opposition, while Aktobe Jas, playing away against a stronger side, manage only 0.6 goals scored and concede 3.2. The expected total is 3.5 goals, with the most likely scoreline 2-1 at 9.4%. The model also suggests an over 1.5 goal pick at 87.6%. Recent form shows Khan Tengri on a two-game winning streak after a 3-0 win over Astana II, while Aktobe Jas also have a two-game winning run from a 1-0 victory over Jaiyq. The single most likely result is a home win, with the model’s selection of an over 1.5 goal outcome reflecting the high probability of a high-scoring affair.
Results analysis
Khan Tengri continued a 2-game winning run, extending their recent form with a 3-0 victory over Astana II, while Aktobe Jas also finished on a 2-game winning streak after a 1-0 win against Jaiyq. The model predicted a home win with a 69% probability, and the result matched the final score of 2-0, confirming the favoured outcome. The suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, carried an 87.6% probability and hit as the match produced two goals. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and every selection was reported with its outcome. The model’s call was correct, and the selections largely came in.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Khan Tengri win✓ Hit
68.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas win✗ Miss
12.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.07
2.13
1.33
1.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.78
1.11
1.86
1.29
1.69
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.67
6.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
2.53
1.12
2.06
0.79
3.07
vs Stronger (21)
0.81
2.62
1.00
2.09
0.60
3.20
vs Similar (9)
1.33
2.33
1.40
2.00
1.25
2.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.6%
Under 1.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.6%
Under 2.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.2%
Under 3.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
2-0 ✓
9.2%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.9%
3-0
7.7%
1-0
6.6%
4-1
5.0%
2-2
4.8%
Khan Tengri goals ↓
Aktobe Jas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
2.2%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
1
6.6%
8.3%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
2
9.2%
9.4%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
3
7.7%
7.9%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
4
4.8%
5.0%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Khan Tengri goals (down), columns = Aktobe Jas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kaspiy
2.62
Irtysh
2.35
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.08
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Zhetisay
1.62
Sport Academy Kairat
1.54
Akademiya Ontustik
1.50
Taraz
1.35
AKAS
1.27
Ekibastuz
1.08
SD Family
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.69
Aktobe Jas
0.52
Yassy Turkistan
0.39
Khan Tengri is 0.17 points better than Aktobe Jas in terms of average points per game (0.69 vs 0.52).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kaspiy
2.85
Irtysh
2.73
Shakhter Karagandy
2.32
Sport Academy Kairat
2.23
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.04
Zhetisay
1.69
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Taraz
1.65
AKAS
1.62
Ekibastuz
1.38
SD Family
1.27
Aktobe Jas
1.24
Khan Tengri
1.04
Yassy Turkistan
0.70
Khan Tengri is 0.20 goals worse than Aktobe Jas in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Irtysh
0.77
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.92
Kaspiy
1.04
Zhetisay
1.35
Shakhter Karagandy
1.36
Taraz
1.46
AKAS
1.50
Sport Academy Kairat
1.62
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Khan Tengri
2.12
Ekibastuz
2.31
Aktobe Jas
2.60
SD Family
2.88
Yassy Turkistan
3.09
Khan Tengri is 0.48 goals better than Aktobe Jas in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 2.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.93
0.80
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.52
0.79
0.71
0.92
0.31
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
3.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.13
0.31
1.00
0.36
1.29
vs Stronger (22)
0.32
1.18
0.36
1.09
0.27
1.27
vs Similar (8)
0.38
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.20
0.53
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.59
1.07
0.57
0.77
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.53
0.75
1.31
0.43
1.79
vs Stronger (22)
0.45
1.64
0.55
1.36
0.36
1.91
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.25
1.20
1.20
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kaspiy
Irtysh
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Shakhter Karagandy
Zhetisay
Sport Academy Kairat
Akademiya Ontustik
Taraz
AKAS
Ekibastuz
SD Family
Yassy Turkistan