This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.23
1.13
1.60
1.00
2.87
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.88
1.25
1.50
1.00
4.25
vs Similar (22)
1.05
2.00
1.09
1.64
1.00
2.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.8%
Under 1.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.7%
Under 2.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.6%
No
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
14.3%
1-0
13.0%
0-0
12.4%
2-0
9.3%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.6%
Khan Tengri goals ↓
Arys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.7%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.3%
8.4%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.0%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Khan Tengri goals (down), columns = Arys goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Taraz
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.25
SD Family
2.25
Yelimay Semey
2.25
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.25
Jas Qyran
2.00
Aktobe
2.00
Ordabasy
2.00
Atyrau
1.80
Irtysh
1.75
AKAS
1.67
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.50
FC Astana
1.50
Ulytau
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Zhetisay
1.33
Talas Karatau
1.17
Arys
1.17
Okzhetpes
0.67
Ekibastuz
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Kaspiy
0.50
Khan Tengri
0.33
Turan Turkistan
0.33
Maqtaaral
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Shakhter Karagandy
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
Khan Tengri is 0.83 points worse than Arys in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 1.17).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atyrau
2.80
Kairat Almaty
2.00
Jas Qyran
1.67
Zhetisay
1.67
Taraz
1.50
SD Family
1.50
AKAS
1.33
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Yelimay Semey
1.25
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.25
Aktobe
1.20
Talas Karatau
1.01
Arys
1.01
Ekibastuz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Ordabasy
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Kaspiy
1.00
Irtysh
0.75
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
FC Astana
0.50
Ulytau
0.50
Maqtaaral
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Turan Turkistan
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
Khan Tengri is 0.01 goals worse than Arys in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.01).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.00
Akademiya Ontustik
0.50
FC Astana
0.50
Irtysh
0.50
Aktobe
0.60
Taraz
0.75
Atyrau
0.80
Jas Qyran
1.00
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.00
AKAS
1.00
Zhetisay
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Yelimay Semey
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Ulytau
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Zhetysu
1.00
Talas Karatau
1.28
Arys
1.28
Turan Turkistan
1.33
Okzhetpes
1.33
Maqtaaral
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.50
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Khan Tengri
1.67
SD Family
1.75
Yassy Turkistan
2.00
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Kaspiy
2.00
Kaisar
3.00
Khan Tengri is 0.38 goals worse than Arys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.28).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Khan Tengri or Drawâ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied -
44%
31%
25%
covers Khan Tengri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri or Arysâ Miss
69.0%
Avg Implied -
44%
31%
25%
covers Khan Tengri + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arysâ Hit
55.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
31%
25%
covers Draw + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Khan Tengri, so a minus line means Khan Tengri give that many goals of a start and Arys receive them. At -1, Khan Tengri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Khan Tengri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Khan Tengri)Actual: Arys
Khan Tengri -2
7.5%
Draw -2
13.5%
Arys +2
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Khan Tengri)Actual: Arys
Khan Tengri -1
20.9%
Draw -1
23.2%
Arys +1
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Khan Tengri)Actual: Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri +1
75.2%
Draw +1
15.9%
Arys -1
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Khan Tengri)Actual: Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri +2
91.1%
Draw +2
6.6%
Arys -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.87
0.73
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.46
0.71
0.64
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.90
0.40
0.60
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.86
0.36
0.73
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.27
0.60
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.00
0.68
1.14
0.64
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.33
0.73
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.88
0.75
1.25
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.64
1.14
0.73
0.91
0.55
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Draw
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →