Khan Tengri are tipped to edge Astana II to a home win, the model’s favourite outcome. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at a 24 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12 % probability. Khan Tengri, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, have averaged 1.07 goals for and 1.43 against, while Astana II, on the road, average 1.0 for and 2.5 against. Home win odds sit at 53 %, a draw at 25 % and an away win at 21 %. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 %, Under 7.5 at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.6 %, Under 6.5 at 97.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.9 % and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.1 %. Khan Tengri come off a win, Astana II after three straight defeats, setting the stage for a tight encounter.
Results analysis
The win extends Khan Tengri’s two-game winning run, a bright moment after a mixed last-five. The model called a home win with 53% confidence, and the result confirmed that prediction. The final score was 3-0, a decisive home victory that matched the model’s forecast. The model’s selections performed impressively: Under 7.5 goals hit with 99.1% probability, Away under 2.5 HT goals with 98.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.6%, Under 6.5 at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7%, Under 5.5 at 92.9%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.8%. Each hit matched the actual outcome, underscoring the model’s accuracy across the board.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Khan Tengri win✓ Hit
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Astana II win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
2.03
0.87
1.33
0.93
2.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
7.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.77
0.93
1.29
0.67
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
3.00
-
-
2.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.83
1.33
2.47
1.00
3.20
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.71
1.75
2.25
0.33
3.33
vs Similar (23)
1.17
2.87
1.18
2.55
1.17
3.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.7%
Under 2.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.9%
3-0 ✓
5.5%
Khan Tengri goals ↓
Astana II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
5.0%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.1%
12%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.2%
9.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.5%
5.9%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.5%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Khan Tengri goals (down), columns = Astana II goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Khan Tengri is 0.25 points worse than Astana II in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Khan Tengri is 0.12 goals worse than Astana II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Khan Tengri is 0.50 goals better than Astana II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 2.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Khan Tengri or Draw✓ Hit
78.6%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
21%
covers Khan Tengri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri or Astana II✓ Hit
74.7%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
21%
covers Khan Tengri + Astana II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Astana II✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
21%
covers Draw + Astana II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Khan Tengri, so a minus line means Khan Tengri give that many goals of a start and Astana II receive them. At -1, Khan Tengri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Khan Tengri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Khan Tengri)Actual: Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri -2
13.9%
Draw -2
16.6%
Astana II +2
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Khan Tengri)Actual: Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri -1
30.6%
Draw -1
22.6%
Astana II +1
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Khan Tengri)Actual: Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri +1
78.6%
Draw +1
13.1%
Astana II -1
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Khan Tengri)Actual: Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri +2
91.6%
Draw +2
5.9%
Astana II -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.47
0.60
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.77
0.50
0.64
0.17
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.57
1.75
0.75
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.74
1.09
0.73
1.09
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.8%
Under 0.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.9%
Under 1.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.4%
Under 2.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.23
0.40
0.73
0.53
1.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
1.00
0.43
0.64
0.50
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.87
0.33
1.47
0.40
2.27
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
2.14
0.00
1.50
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
1.78
0.45
1.45
0.42
2.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.3%
Under 1.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.4%
Under 2.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →