The model favours an away win for Sport Academy Kairat, with a 48 % chance, followed by a 27 % draw and a 25 % home win. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.9 % probability. Khan Tengri, playing at home against a similarly-ranked opponent, averages 0.93 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Sport Academy Kairat, on the road, averages 1.82 scored and 1.64 conceded against similar teams. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3 %), Under 5.5 (94.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (92.0 %), Away +2 handicap (89.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (89.6 %), and Under 4.5 (85.8 %). Khan Tengri has just returned from a win, 4-3 over Tobol 2, while Sport Academy Kairat also comes off a 4-0 victory against Turan Turkistan.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Khan Tengri win
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat win
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
2.13
0.93
1.33
0.87
2.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
7.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.88
1.00
1.29
0.58
2.58
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
3.00
-
-
2.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sport Academy Kairat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.33
2.47
1.33
2.00
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.55
2.10
1.40
2.00
1.70
vs Weaker (10)
2.60
0.90
3.20
1.20
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.0%
0-0
8.9%
0-2
8.0%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
5.0%
Khan Tengri goals ↓
Sport Academy Kairat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
9.8%
8.0%
3.8%
1.4%
1
7.4%
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.6%
2
4.9%
7.0%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.8%
2.6%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Khan Tengri goals (down), columns = Sport Academy Kairat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Khan Tengri is 1.25 points worse than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Khan Tengri is 1.25 goals worse than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Khan Tengri is 1.38 goals worse than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 0.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Khan Tengri or Draw
56.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
29%
43%
covers Khan Tengri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri or Sport Academy Kairat
71.3%
Avg Implied -
28%
29%
43%
covers Khan Tengri + Sport Academy Kairat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sport Academy Kairat
71.8%
Avg Implied -
28%
29%
43%
covers Draw + Sport Academy Kairat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Khan Tengri, so a minus line means Khan Tengri give that many goals of a start and Sport Academy Kairat receive them. At -1, Khan Tengri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Khan Tengri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Khan Tengri)
Khan Tengri -2
3.6%
Draw -2
8.1%
Sport Academy Kairat +2
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Khan Tengri)
Khan Tengri -1
11.6%
Draw -1
16.6%
Sport Academy Kairat +1
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Khan Tengri)
Khan Tengri +1
56.9%
Draw +1
21.6%
Sport Academy Kairat -1
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Khan Tengri)
Khan Tengri +2
78.5%
Draw +2
13.3%
Sport Academy Kairat -2
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.60
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.85
0.50
0.64
0.17
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sport Academy Kairat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
0.93
0.53
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.65
0.80
0.60
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.30
1.20
0.40
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.27
0.47
0.73
0.47
1.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
1.04
0.50
0.64
0.42
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sport Academy Kairat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.80
1.53
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.90
1.30
0.80
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.60
2.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2